Play #1 Saturday - Louisiana UNDER 131 x 2U (this number should be good down to about 128 I figure)
- proven formula they have ....don't score much and they plays strong defense only allowing 68 pts per game and lately, they have converted their defensive stops into wins (2 in a row) ....they played S.Miss in their building and the total only went to 116 pts despite S.Miss scoring avg of 74 pts and giving up 76 per game......what's gonna change?
If you back up a Louisiana +4.5 or better small with OVER as a parlay back up...and press on this for more than I have, I think you will be fine and should recover with that combo 2/3 of your money back with that parlay as 1 U while you play 3U on the TOTAL
I am confident enough that this likely will go UNDER and would risk $200 betting that to likely happen given their pattern .....if this goes to OT, I doubt one team gets away from the other by more than 3-4 pts which is why I suggest the parlay of OVER and ULL +4.5 or better
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #1 Saturday - Louisiana UNDER 131 x 2U (this number should be good down to about 128 I figure)
- proven formula they have ....don't score much and they plays strong defense only allowing 68 pts per game and lately, they have converted their defensive stops into wins (2 in a row) ....they played S.Miss in their building and the total only went to 116 pts despite S.Miss scoring avg of 74 pts and giving up 76 per game......what's gonna change?
If you back up a Louisiana +4.5 or better small with OVER as a parlay back up...and press on this for more than I have, I think you will be fine and should recover with that combo 2/3 of your money back with that parlay as 1 U while you play 3U on the TOTAL
I am confident enough that this likely will go UNDER and would risk $200 betting that to likely happen given their pattern .....if this goes to OT, I doubt one team gets away from the other by more than 3-4 pts which is why I suggest the parlay of OVER and ULL +4.5 or better
American -1.5 @ Boston x 1 U ...the spread and rank group correlates well for American in my spreadsheet
-they have a good offense and are decent at stopping the 3 pt and defensive rebouding
-Boston is a pure shooting team and so is American...they don't offensive rebound well either (both teams are 2 of the very worst out of 365 teams) so as a result, a lot of their games are clock burners and their scores are usually UNDER 130 Pts...only 2 games barely went over 150 in the last 10 games between them..... I want to bet UNDER but Boston likes to foul when they are down because they jack up a lot of 3 pointers trying to get back into games....
HUNCH > Over bet I will play tomorrow...want to see if this comes down
Boston's defense is horrid! I am betting history between them plays out with the lack of offensive rebounding affecting a lot of clock and teams work for shots with American knowing their defense on the perimeter can work to their advantage with frustrated missed 3 pt shots by Boston
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #2
American -1.5 @ Boston x 1 U ...the spread and rank group correlates well for American in my spreadsheet
-they have a good offense and are decent at stopping the 3 pt and defensive rebouding
-Boston is a pure shooting team and so is American...they don't offensive rebound well either (both teams are 2 of the very worst out of 365 teams) so as a result, a lot of their games are clock burners and their scores are usually UNDER 130 Pts...only 2 games barely went over 150 in the last 10 games between them..... I want to bet UNDER but Boston likes to foul when they are down because they jack up a lot of 3 pointers trying to get back into games....
HUNCH > Over bet I will play tomorrow...want to see if this comes down
Boston's defense is horrid! I am betting history between them plays out with the lack of offensive rebounding affecting a lot of clock and teams work for shots with American knowing their defense on the perimeter can work to their advantage with frustrated missed 3 pt shots by Boston
By the way...by the time I went to lay this bet (American - 1.5), it flipped to Boston -1.5 now so I am taking American +1.5 x 1U late here....bonus in my opinion
The line has move 3 pts....TOTAL is the same
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
By the way...by the time I went to lay this bet (American - 1.5), it flipped to Boston -1.5 now so I am taking American +1.5 x 1U late here....bonus in my opinion
Boston/American Total has plunged 4 pts likely based on history. I think the OVER me be good here due to what I see in style of play and how both teams put up a lot of shots and three pointers
Play #3 Over 145.5 x HALF U
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Interesting....
Boston/American Total has plunged 4 pts likely based on history. I think the OVER me be good here due to what I see in style of play and how both teams put up a lot of shots and three pointers
-this line has no business being this high with the stellar UNC defense and the fact they like to play the clock on offense....and pick up offensive rebounds
- SMU with a good defense as well and have size to match up UNC inside
-strong lean to UNC to win this game but the UNDER is more attractive to ...I only see one team MAYBE scoring 80 pts
Play #5 - Hofstra -6.5 x 1.5 U
-one of my fave teams to follow this year and statistically, they really good on both sides of the ball and can rebound
-Drexel is terrible on the FT line and have trouble scoring
-tradition is, this matchup is low scoring but I can see Drexel fouling to TRY to keep this close late and Hofstra pulling away to cover by 8-10 pts or more
Might have 1-2 more at this time slot...still sifting
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
2pm Games:
Play #4 - UNC/SMU Under 155 x 1U
-this line has no business being this high with the stellar UNC defense and the fact they like to play the clock on offense....and pick up offensive rebounds
- SMU with a good defense as well and have size to match up UNC inside
-strong lean to UNC to win this game but the UNDER is more attractive to ...I only see one team MAYBE scoring 80 pts
Play #5 - Hofstra -6.5 x 1.5 U
-one of my fave teams to follow this year and statistically, they really good on both sides of the ball and can rebound
-Drexel is terrible on the FT line and have trouble scoring
-tradition is, this matchup is low scoring but I can see Drexel fouling to TRY to keep this close late and Hofstra pulling away to cover by 8-10 pts or more
Might have 1-2 more at this time slot...still sifting
- normally, I would pound this BUT..... Akron has a double positive correlation and I am making this bet out of interest to see if Miami Ohio is the real deal to sustain their perfect record vs a rival
Duke -16.5 x HALF U
-I think they have lost their edge but this FLST team will have issues getting off outside shots with Duke's length....and the rank correlation is very strong at 20 - 6 ATS favorable for at Top 20 team vs a team ranked #109 ..... spread is also positive at 12 - 7 when getting this number and up to -20.5 pts
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Miami Ohio +4 x HALF U and HALF U ML +155
- normally, I would pound this BUT..... Akron has a double positive correlation and I am making this bet out of interest to see if Miami Ohio is the real deal to sustain their perfect record vs a rival
Duke -16.5 x HALF U
-I think they have lost their edge but this FLST team will have issues getting off outside shots with Duke's length....and the rank correlation is very strong at 20 - 6 ATS favorable for at Top 20 team vs a team ranked #109 ..... spread is also positive at 12 - 7 when getting this number and up to -20.5 pts
- my correlation stats say TRUST THIS ONE ...just like the Vermont at New Hamp situation.... the fave is 38-18 ATS ....first time I am seeing a spread this high for this rank of team matchup though so be cautious
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Winthrop -20.5 x HALF U
- my correlation stats say TRUST THIS ONE ...just like the Vermont at New Hamp situation.... the fave is 38-18 ATS ....first time I am seeing a spread this high for this rank of team matchup though so be cautious
-one of my favorite home courts and they do everything well on offense and rebound well....play decent defense
-EWU is atrocious on defense and they can score....but Idaho is 33rd best FT in the land and if EWU misses 3pters in an attempt to get back into the game, they will foul Idaho late to push a close game into a cover by 10+ is my thinking...on home court
-this rank group matchup falls into the 38 - 18 ATS success correlation, hence my press on it
I've got horse racing card to cap now and going to take a break....might look for something late but if not, GL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
5pm
Idaho -6.5 x 3U
-one of my favorite home courts and they do everything well on offense and rebound well....play decent defense
-EWU is atrocious on defense and they can score....but Idaho is 33rd best FT in the land and if EWU misses 3pters in an attempt to get back into the game, they will foul Idaho late to push a close game into a cover by 10+ is my thinking...on home court
-this rank group matchup falls into the 38 - 18 ATS success correlation, hence my press on it
I've got horse racing card to cap now and going to take a break....might look for something late but if not, GL
-my number falls more into the 135 - 140 zone for this matchup.... SF does not have to press here on a team that does not shoot too many 3 pt shots successfully and therefore the pace will be slower I believe
-Portland tends to score in the 60's on the road but facing a tough SF defense....SF is comfortable scoring in the 70's
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #1 San Fran Under 145.5 x 1U
-my number falls more into the 135 - 140 zone for this matchup.... SF does not have to press here on a team that does not shoot too many 3 pt shots successfully and therefore the pace will be slower I believe
-Portland tends to score in the 60's on the road but facing a tough SF defense....SF is comfortable scoring in the 70's
-they average almost 14 pts better on offense and have played a tougher SOS
-they can hit the 3 pt well and FT pretty good
-LeMoyne is weak at those two shooting situations
-LeMoyne can produce wins on the road vs similar or easier opponents
I like the Richmond - Fordham Under 140.5 ...no official play but it interest me ....Richmond wonky lately and Fordham has been effective getting wins shutting down the other side
Play #3 - Tulsa -3.5 x HALF U
-just a real good team offensively and defensively but I cannot say the say for UNT who appear to be one dimensional, albeit effective vs teams ranked lower than them... TULSA is a significant step up in class
Eyeing a couple more....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #2 - LeMoyne ML +115 x 1U
-wrong team is favored
-they average almost 14 pts better on offense and have played a tougher SOS
-they can hit the 3 pt well and FT pretty good
-LeMoyne is weak at those two shooting situations
-LeMoyne can produce wins on the road vs similar or easier opponents
I like the Richmond - Fordham Under 140.5 ...no official play but it interest me ....Richmond wonky lately and Fordham has been effective getting wins shutting down the other side
Play #3 - Tulsa -3.5 x HALF U
-just a real good team offensively and defensively but I cannot say the say for UNT who appear to be one dimensional, albeit effective vs teams ranked lower than them... TULSA is a significant step up in class
1Ux USF 1.31 with Houston Texans ML 1.17 with Baltimore Ravens 1.48 ML > pays +127
(Lamar Jackson playing and team healthier in general)
HALF U x USF -7.5 @ 1.90 with Houston Texas ML 1.17 with Ravens ML 1.48 > pays +229
HALF U > USF ML 1.31 with Siena 1.25 ML with KC Chiefs ML 1.41 with N.Kentucky Over 145.5 > pays +339
+$80 in my Exotic account.... now at -$120 but will fill it up well with hitting one of these and good shot at 2 of them
-Youngstown-NK was going to be my next play but think I can get better return on my HALF U risk combined with 3 very likely winners
-USF is superior in ways that UAB is not....and if UAB tries to stay close, they will have a hard time vs a strong FT team in USF who can score in the lane and are dominant at home most years....that said....UAB has dominated this matchup for years so be cautious here... USF smoked UTAH ST at home and went into ALABAMA to keep it within 12 pts and hang with Alabama offensively so UAB better bring it because the times are gonna change and USF is tired of this domination and end it today!
-Raiders want no part of winning and Chiefs will send off Kelce with a win in a game they should win when best players of Raiders are all pretty much taken out of the game so that Raiders can draft a good QB as directed by Tom Brady putting his ownership stamp on the team
-Houston will win and want to and Colts starting a 3rd string rookie against an alpha defense...GL
-Baltimore is great in a 1 and done win situation when healthy....Pitt has few options on offense to put up pts to hang with the Ravens who can score in many ways on you and Jackson and Henry will dominate ....having Steelers best WR and a dominant playmaker on sweeps and other plays is hurting them big time
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #4 - Parlay ML and ATS plays > RISK 1.5 U
1Ux USF 1.31 with Houston Texans ML 1.17 with Baltimore Ravens 1.48 ML > pays +127
(Lamar Jackson playing and team healthier in general)
HALF U x USF -7.5 @ 1.90 with Houston Texas ML 1.17 with Ravens ML 1.48 > pays +229
HALF U > USF ML 1.31 with Siena 1.25 ML with KC Chiefs ML 1.41 with N.Kentucky Over 145.5 > pays +339
+$80 in my Exotic account.... now at -$120 but will fill it up well with hitting one of these and good shot at 2 of them
-Youngstown-NK was going to be my next play but think I can get better return on my HALF U risk combined with 3 very likely winners
-USF is superior in ways that UAB is not....and if UAB tries to stay close, they will have a hard time vs a strong FT team in USF who can score in the lane and are dominant at home most years....that said....UAB has dominated this matchup for years so be cautious here... USF smoked UTAH ST at home and went into ALABAMA to keep it within 12 pts and hang with Alabama offensively so UAB better bring it because the times are gonna change and USF is tired of this domination and end it today!
-Raiders want no part of winning and Chiefs will send off Kelce with a win in a game they should win when best players of Raiders are all pretty much taken out of the game so that Raiders can draft a good QB as directed by Tom Brady putting his ownership stamp on the team
-Houston will win and want to and Colts starting a 3rd string rookie against an alpha defense...GL
-Baltimore is great in a 1 and done win situation when healthy....Pitt has few options on offense to put up pts to hang with the Ravens who can score in many ways on you and Jackson and Henry will dominate ....having Steelers best WR and a dominant playmaker on sweeps and other plays is hurting them big time
Conference Play data has not kicked in well for me lately....will stick with it but be much more selective and also look at matchups like I see today in one instance for sure
Duke -1 x 2.5 U
Under 162.5 x 1U
-this team has been leaking a little for about a month....it tends to happen to them every year but because of the makeup of this team, they still have only 1 loss despite a strong SOS
-Louisville as well....BUT, realize they are coming back 4 days from a long California road trip which will have an effect on them for sure and Duke's coach will know this and raise the energy level on them on defense where I expect the effect to pay off for them
-Duke has also been not as good when they relax their defense and let a team get confidence .....look at most of their wins against strong teams Michigan St, Florida, Kansas, Texas ...all Under 150 pts mostly and I think coach will remind them of this because not tightening up results in what you get in the TTECH game
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Conference Play data has not kicked in well for me lately....will stick with it but be much more selective and also look at matchups like I see today in one instance for sure
Duke -1 x 2.5 U
Under 162.5 x 1U
-this team has been leaking a little for about a month....it tends to happen to them every year but because of the makeup of this team, they still have only 1 loss despite a strong SOS
-Louisville as well....BUT, realize they are coming back 4 days from a long California road trip which will have an effect on them for sure and Duke's coach will know this and raise the energy level on them on defense where I expect the effect to pay off for them
-Duke has also been not as good when they relax their defense and let a team get confidence .....look at most of their wins against strong teams Michigan St, Florida, Kansas, Texas ...all Under 150 pts mostly and I think coach will remind them of this because not tightening up results in what you get in the TTECH game
-WMU can get stomped occasionally vs a good team and Miami has beaten teams by over 30 of their ilk.....and undefeated and no let up in sight
I don't think WMU is the team to knock them down a peg and a full house of rabid fans cheering on a 15-0 team to get to 15-0 and a further push from rank #50 is more than likely in the cards this evening
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Play #2 - Miami Ohio -13.5 x 1U
-shouldn't this line be like Akron's?
-WMU can get stomped occasionally vs a good team and Miami has beaten teams by over 30 of their ilk.....and undefeated and no let up in sight
I don't think WMU is the team to knock them down a peg and a full house of rabid fans cheering on a 15-0 team to get to 15-0 and a further push from rank #50 is more than likely in the cards this evening
I also find it interesting to see the Cincy-WVU line inch up from 131.5 last night to 133.5 on Bet365 ...I am an UNDER buyer at 134.5 and can see a 68 - 66 win for one side AT MOST in this defensive tight battle
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
I also find it interesting to see the Cincy-WVU line inch up from 131.5 last night to 133.5 on Bet365 ...I am an UNDER buyer at 134.5 and can see a 68 - 66 win for one side AT MOST in this defensive tight battle
so happy I went this way...tight game AND I have huge respect for Sparty 
unless I get a late miracle....
+65 profit
... I still believe it is a fake out 
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