Hard to know what is wrong with Houston? Lots of road games that are tough..... but they lost at home too to Zona
I still think they will be around the cover for the TEASE by the end of the game but many, they seem burnt out a little and teams are keying on preventing Sharp from ever getting open and its working
When you do your capping today/this week, just remember who is finishing the season strongly and who is fading away with pressure.....
Strongly:
Arizona
Tennessee
Duke
N.Carolina
Fading:
Houston
Kentucky
Louisville
Undetermined:
Michigan
UCONN
BYU
Nebraska
Michigan St.
I am leaning towards ONLY doing my spreadsheet plays the rest of the way and staying out of the big game fray unless I think VEGAS has it completely wrong ....VEGAS has been quite solid on setting up their lines in those games so have to pay them 
I see 2 potential wrong lines tonight but will not share until after the fact....and honestly
I am being a student now the rest of the way and going to be very selective and watch a lot of games/clips ...I want to be ready for NCAAB tourney and hti 60% or better on my plays...and do DOUBLE UPS also but if I get caught up in the day to day swing of who is motivated and who should win sort of betting, I might taint my study of WHO IS READY which is far more important
I actually have up to 5 lines that of favorite teams .....that I think VEGAS is screwing around and underlaying the number......but won't reveal until later tonight and what those numbers were.....its more important for me to KNOW that the teams that I feel will win and cover easily are ready and testing if they are ready has been fruitless lately
I think 4 out of the 5 will cover easily so I will do a ML parlay on those 5 games and then a wheel where one dog upsets for 1/5th of my betting amount
The 5 way parlay for faves would come to >
I will do my matchups later to see if any strong correlations appear on DOUBLE FADE or DOUBLE positive but will have results closer to game time...in the middle of a lot of things going on leading to a Conference I am attending next week for 3 days
5 way favorite ML parlay > pays +425 x 1U
Virginia + Indiana + St.Louis + Arizona + Tennessee << I think they all win but the way things have gone lately, chances are there will be one upset
$20 (1st 2 plays)/$30 > one team gets upset parlay + 4 other ML faves
- Virginia upset > pays +1105
- Indiana upset > pays +1940
- St.Louis upset > pays +758
- Arizona upset *** don't believe this can happen so no backup
- Tennessee upset > pays +675
Cost to try this is $200 for me.....lowest payout is $232 ....strong chance at much more so gonna try it
Since my parlay covers my backside for a loss..... I just did a correlation of these teams and:
DOUBLE POSITIVE strong > St. Louis -3.5 x 1U @ Dayton
-their point differential is a whopping +20.8 and Dayton is only +5.5
-rank group #23 vs #78 Dayton is +7 abover .500 ATS
-spread success for #23 as fave with a line -3.5 = 44 - 31 - 1
Since I have committed already to the parlay, I would have easily made this a 2U PLAY if not
I pick the one team that has a great record, knows they are in and they mail it into a team desperate to get in....what was I thinking? Double POSITIVE usually works but its so freakin tricky right now with team motivation and who is tired from the grind
Sorry about the St.L play. I have watched 5 consecutive 3 pt shots made by Dayton and nothing from STL haha wow
Feb 26 TOP TEAMS update:
BEST EQUIPPED FOR NCAAB:
#1 Duke
#2 Michigan
#3 UCONN
#4 Arizona
#5 Florida
----------------------------------clear leaders/consistent Top 5
Next Tier (1-2x Elite 8 teams in this group if healthy)
Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa St, Texas Tech, N.Carolina, St. John's
Next Tier (1-2 x Elite 8 teams in this group possible)
Tennessee, Virginia, Alabama, Purdue, Michigan St, BYU, Nebraska, Kansas
Elite 8? (chance maybe?)
Arkansas, Louisville, Vanderbilt, NC State, Wisconsin, Miami, St. Mary's
Sweet 16 (1-2 should make it)
Santa Clara, Utah St, St. Louis, Miami OH
------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Bubble Teams (things could change game by game):
TCU, UCF, Indiana, Ohio St, Kentucky, Clemson, Iowa > Play-in 4 > ( Missouri, SMU, Georgia, UCLA ) << Last 4 Bubble teams
> just out list: - unless they win Conference tourney - 1-2 of these could be in PLAY-IN game
S.Florida, Texas, Texas AM, San Diego St
-----------------------------next in line
New Mexico, Yale, California, Dayton VTECH, Cincy, McNeese, Belmont, Seton Hall, Nevada
^^^^ still fighting /in the hunt (15 extra bubble squads could win out/impress)
Teams that should not be in NCAAB Tourney if don't win Conf Tourney: USC, Baylor, Auburn, Oklahoma St, WVU, Stanford, Syracuse, Boise, Oklahoma, Colorado St, Tulsa, Hawaii, George Mason, Arizona St.
Saturday:
Play #1 - Missouri -1.5 x 1U @ Mississippi St.
-Dayton today showed what a team will do if they are on the road and on the BUBBLE for the NCAAB tourney
-Missouri is in the same situation, and playing well with no wiggle room here so leverage the motivation and statistically, Missouri IS better
Play #2 - Duke UNDER 141.5 x HALF U
-this should be a rock fight at times...Virginia is in and unmotivated to beat Duke in my opinion....they know they cannot but they might try and jack up 3 pt shots.....did anyone see Duke prevent Michigan from their deadly 3 pt game??
-love the Duke coach and its because he pays attention to details on defense and is likely great in the film room analysis SO .....he should challenge his players to outhustle, outwork a very good Virginia defense ...and then do the same in their own end
Play #3 - SDST - South Dakota OVER 151 x HALF U
-look, SDST is a defensive team but when pushed, they can score 75 -80 pts because that is what its going to take to beat South Dakota at home and this is a major rivalry....
Play #4 - UCLA must win to book a seat at NCAAB tourney > -1 x HALF U
-being on the road and 2 hour time difference does not bother me late in the season....the goal is all that matters now and Cronin is damn good and preaching a 'one and done' mentality ...he was like that at CINCY and now he will demand that focus/approach vs the Gophers
Play #5 - Kentucky ML @1.90 x HALF U
-Kentucky is up against the ropes in my opinion and at risk of not getting into tourney
- Vandy is in and playing like they want the season to be over so they can prep for the tourney
- over the past 2 seasons, Wildcats have been good at home with their backs against the wall and needing a win
Wish I would have grabbed ARIZONA today at -8 .....this is going to be a potential wipeout... Kansas is sucking air late in the seasn and Self is losing it on the sidelines which is not typical.... big pressure on Kansas but I actually think they will be perfect in the NCAAB tourney and all of these BIG12 ringer games are just a little over the top for them ....watch them gain confidence and let it grow come tourney time as they have good athletes but they are not brawny players...and its showing that they are tired and getting leaned on ...a little rest and reset leading to tourney should do the trick plus the weightroom
Play #6 - California -7.5 x 1U
-stick a fork in Pitt and now they travel to west coast where they should be 'watching girls and itching to go to da club' rather than facing a tiger of a team right now who is very tough on their homecourt with good scoring prowess
-California is near the top of the bubble and cannot lose so I see a strong night on offense
Texas vs TEXAS AM ....bubble game big time...loser is probably done so I lean the OVER
Play #7 ND/NDST Over 150.5 x HALF U
-another big deal in that area .....NDST can roll and score over 80 easily and probably push for 90 ...ND won't rollover to a rival
Play #8 - Alabama - Tennessee Under 164.5 x HALF U
-Tenn won't let Alabama dictate the pace and we have seen that in Vols last few games at home vs a strong offense
- there is no benefit for the Vols to get into a shooting match which increases Bamas chance of winning
SMU - Stanford > SMU on the bubble...Stanford won't be going so I lean SMU but already have too many plays and don't like the time zone switch here and the fact that Stanford can be very strong on their home court
Play #9 - Zaga/St Mary's Under 144.5 x HALF U
-these matchups at St Marys are usually tight and low scoring and this is the best Zaga defense in years...
-if thist total goes up 1 pt, I will add
NOTE: - non of my plays are related to my spreadsheet....Saturday is a shitshow for me using my spreadsheet so I am betting sides with motivation or lack thereof to run up high totals
7.5 Units bet on the weekend so far > will be returned likely +3.5 with Duke Under and Missouri winning by 30 pts in the first half
Just need 1 play to win out 7 remaining now, no matter if its a HALF U or full and I am in the profit......
Betting motivation is the ONLY way to go now until we get to the tourney brackets, and thus, that is my plan. Let's see how it turns out. I will be 3 - 0 likely by about 3 pm so I am staying vigilante and looking into more plays tomorrow or later today, that might be very motivational to consider
Results:
Friday Night:
Michigan -1 x 2U 
Saturday:
Play #1 - Missouri -1.5 x 1U @ Mississippi St.
Play #2 - Duke UNDER 141.5 x HALF U
Play #3 - SDST - South Dakota OVER 151 x HALF U << first HALF was on pace! 
Play #4 - UCLA must win to book a seat at NCAAB tourney > -1 x HALF U
Play #5 - Kentucky ML @1.90 x HALF U
Play #6 - California -7.5 x 1U << didn't care!! 
Play #7 ND/NDST Over 150.5 x HALF U
Play #8 - Alabama - Tennessee Under 164.5 x HALF U << looks like the first half will be 68 pts ....97 scored in second half kills this....with Alabama, anything is possible
Play #9 - Zaga/St Mary's Under 144.5 x HALF U
5 - 3 (+2.5U) right now with a chance for 1 more U ....no plays for me tomorrow as I am at a Conference, and maybe Monday as well
Feb 28 TOP TEAMS update:
BEST EQUIPPED FOR NCAAB:
#1 Duke
#2 Michigan
#3 UCONN
#4 Arizona
#5 Florida
----------------------------------clear leaders/consistent Top 5
Next Tier (1-2x Elite 8 teams in this group if healthy)
Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa St, St. John's, Alabama, Illinois
Next Tier (1-2x Elite 8 teams in this group possible)
N.Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue, Michigan St, Nebraska
Elite 8? (chance maybe?)
Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, St. Mary's, BYU, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Villanova, Miami, Kentucky
Sweet 16 (1-2 could make it)
Santa Clara, Utah St, St. Louis, Miami OH
------------------------------------------------------------------
32 teams above are in / 26 Conference seats available > (***21-23 new teams)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Bubble Teams (things could change game by game):
NC State, Clemson, TCU, Missouri, Indiana, UCF, Ohio St > Play-in 4 > ( Texas, Iowa, Georgia, New Mex. ) << Last 4 Bubble teams
> just out list: - unless they win Conference tourney - 1-2 of these could be in PLAY-IN game
VCU, S.Florida, UCLA, WVU, San Diego St
-----------------------------next in line
McNeese, Yale, Seton Hall, Texas AM, Dayton, Cincy, VTECH, California, Belmont
^^^^ still fighting /in the hunt (15 extra bubble squads could win out/impress)
Teams that should not be in NCAAB Tourney if don't win Conf Tourney: USC, Baylor, Auburn, Oklahoma St, WVU, Stanford, Syracuse, Boise, Oklahoma, Colorado St, Tulsa, Hawaii, George Mason, Nevada, Arizona St.
EWU -3 x 1U
- don't look at their record...first 10 games were carved out against top teams in strong conferences and they have come roaring back in conference play to be a dominant force in their Conference....they almost never lose at home and Idaho is much better at home vs road
-if you can get Conference futures on this team, its worth a shot
I also think Zona will win well but the UNDER is most attractive to me .....
UNDER 147.5 x HALF U > final score 76 - 68 or 73 - 58 in a beatdown
-Arizona defense is sublime...both teams like to use passing to get the best shot and IWST is not even close to the same on the road as they are at home
Trying to figure out why this Duke total is rising....
I liked it this morning to go UNDER 148.5 but decided to watch it toward the evening instead and now at 151 in BET365
Still going to watch but I am curious as to why Duke would engage in a back and forth with NCST who can be explosive at times at home .....NCST is a tier 2 level team in the Top 50 ....no reason to do so
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