L2T Conference Betting Thread

 Dang! MER -2 and then some! Nice! 

Thursday Results:

Play #1 - Michigan Under 161.5 x 1.5U  << I was right about Penn St and Michigan's defense but nothing else!

Play #2 Marist Under 135.5 x 2U    BOO YAH ...that was tight...I have all kinds of Seattle and soccer parlays with this and I was sweating big time those last 2 minutes

Play #3 - Bellarmine Over 147.5 x 1U   

Play #4 Iona +8 x HALF U  

Play #5 Morehead +9 x 1U .... TBD

Play #6 Double Positive Correlation - Merrimack -2 x HALF U  

 Guaranteed a winning night +2.5 U so far

I did a check of my books...I am killing parlays on Proline parlays this NCAAB season with soccer and occasional football or NBA play....man what a season 

Good show L2T! Outstanding... but didn't BOO YAH go out with AWESOME SAUCE? Hahahaha. Only kidding. You BOO YAH all you want. Keep stacking and I'll even join in.  

@Last2thirst

Nothing gets old with me if I like it... ....enjoy 

Lets be honest, 4-2 or 3-2 most of the time is profitable and this is where style points matter ....pressing on the right play!

Jose 

Seeing where Belmont is getting a good deal of love vs UIC in the MVC. Wondering if that's on our list today?

 L2T 

You can't bet any other team than UCONN playing at Madison Square ....yes Pitino is a good coach but not better and yes STJ is from NY but, this UCONN team is one of the most consistent and improving team in college basketball

UCONN -1 x 1.5U 

-show me what you got STJ!!

Busy day...no time to cap unfortunately

If Belmont were a Top 20 team, I might consider it but I won't bet against my rank group correlations....this matchup is 21 - 26 ATS for the favorite 

Again, when I like a team and it goes against my correlations, I start thinking of the TOTAL and compare in the matchup

Only 1 play for me tonight...I am going to work on Saturday Matchups after horses are done. I got a 7 - 2 winner to start my PICK5 ....RACE 2 coming soon 

Huge St. John's fan here, and I always tail you and had bet UConn this morning so I was very happy to see you riding them to. Speaking of riding, I used to own a few race horses here in SoCal, mostly racing at Santa Anita and Hollywood. I have a lot of stories about what happens behind the curtain of that sport, but lemme just say I worked with a couple real dirtbag trainers, and I also used Mike Mitchell, who was great actually. Not sure if he's around anymore, but if you see a horse trained by AC Avila and it should be 30-to-1 and it's going off at 5-to-1...bet it every time. My best horse got claimed away for 50k by Jim Rome racing, who then stepped it up into a 150k stakes race and it won, I was furious bc it had run 2nd 3 straight times at 50k and I wanted to move it up into stakes company and they wouldn't. Oh well.

Thanks for posting your picks Thirst, you've helped  me to a couple of big winning weeks of late, respect.

Hey, I am a Rick Pitino style of basketball fan and long time have had affection for StJ, Syracuse and UCONN. Hurley is unreal at prepping his players, diet and strength training....and he motivates!

I am looking forward to watching this game. Could STJ beat UCONN = YES! But if they played 10 games on a neutral court, UCONN would win 8 games or more most  likely

I grew up around standardbreds but trained all types of horses on our farm as a boy..... I can see myself getting into thoroughbreds eventually but I know too many people in the harness industry.

That is so cool that you were an owner. My wife and I don't have the cash to be a sole owner BUT we are going to get involved in a consortium in about 3-5 yrs buying yearlings.... I also want to do something with a couple of harness drivers at Mohawk when they retire and hope I can convince them to do something around our home town where we all can get together and community own some horses ...my hometown had a North American Cup winner in 2021 with a hometown driver win the $1.1 million prize in the best in show 3 yr old colts...that was something!

@Last2thirst

 Oh cool! I'm sorry I didn't know you were speaking about harness and not thoroughbred, my bad. Yes UConn definitely more talented and they're up early, my bet of the day was UConn 1st half bc St. Johns famous for starting out slow this season.

I feel like I got fished into that juicy line..... congrats to those that took ST Johns

@Last2thirst

 North America Cup (not American) 1,000,000 purse.

Best of Luck going forward.

That's funny you are looking it up....my own computer recalls that the purse varies off a standard $1 million occasionally.... I just guessed because purses were up that year at Mohawk

Data on purses:

The Pepsi North America Cup (NA Cup) for three-year-old pacers, held at Woodbine Mohawk Park, has boasted a purse of $1 million or more in every edition since 1987. On several occasions, the purse has exceeded the $1 million mark.
Based on historical data, the NA Cup has paid significantly more than $1 million (often $1.5M+) in the following years:
2001: $1,148,500 (Won by Bettors Delight)
2002: $1,500,000 (Won by Red River Hanover)
2003: $1,542,500 (Won by Yankee Cruiser)
2004: $1,629,500 (Highest purse in history, won by Mantacular)
2005: $1,542,500 (Won by Rocknroll Hanover)
2006: $1,500,000 (Won by Total Truth)
2007: $1,500,000 (Won by Tell All)
2008: $1,500,000 (Won by Somebeachsomewhere)
2009: $1,500,000 (Won by Well Said)
2010: $1,500,000 (Won by Sportswriter)
2011: $1,500,000 (Won by Up The Credit)
2012: $1,500,000 (Won by Thinking Out Loud)
Since 2013, the race has generally been valued at exactly $1,000,000 annually, including the 2023, 2024, and 2025 editions.
Key Facts:
12 times in its history (as of 2023 data), the purse exceeded $1 million.
The highest purse was $1,629,500 in 2004.

Notice in those years, its more than $1 million U.S. if you do the conversion? 

MORE THAN 85% of the plays I post in here, are NOT action hunches or matchups that SHOULD WORK.....I purposely use my spreadsheet and very BEST CORRELATIONS. And, I prefer to use mostly, DOUBLE CORRELATIONS or where one rank group favorite vs another rank group dog match up well in my spreadsheet for the favorite and I call these:

POSITIVE CORRELATIONS: 

-then I check my line success rate that I have recorded every game over 2 seasons now and if it shows a good % better than .500, that potential play becomes a DOUBLE POSITIVE CORRELATION and through the week I tend to press on these plays

I just went through the whole card this morning looking for DOUBLE CORRELATIONS that strong and there is only 4 !!! Let that sink in how tough Saturdays are  and its my opinion that Vegas book staffs have guys working on this card exclusively the whole week to catch retail bettors $$$ more throwing out juicy lines and trap lines ....kind of like the one I got hooked on with UCONN last night at -1.5 

I am doing DOUBLE UPs today, and 5 pt TEASERS on my 4 Positive Correlations and it looks like I will be jumping on TOTALS and FADES for combos with them and straight bets.

Play #1 - DOUBLE POSITIVE CORRELATION > DOUBLE UP play in effect - lose, and the next DP PLAY = 1 Unit

Virginia -13.5 x HALF U

- I like the UNDER even better as my notes will explain why

UNDER 147 x 1U 

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-Syracuse is not a great outside shooting team but can hit FGs ....Viriginia's organization getting back on defense/set prevents a lot of teams from transitioning easy on them ....so I am fading Cuse to score easily

-Syracuse if they get fouled are 364th on the FT line!!

-Virginia can score inside or outside which is exactly what you need vs a 2-3 zone defense that Cuse uses most of the game despite Boeheim no longer coaching there

-Virginia defense is extremely strong vs shotmaking teams

-Virginia with 244th best FT shooting 

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I have, and will continue to, put in a lot of time for THIS SATURDAY because I want to slay the negative results I have accumulated on this day mostly because I did not pay the attention I should have on every nuance.....I have spent already at least 6 hrs on this card and that is double what I normally do....hopefully it pays but be cautious

Positive vibes to you bro 

@Last2thirst

TEASER PLAYs (5 pt) - using DOUBLE FADES and other POSITIVE PLAYS as KEYS

-HALF U each

KEY Coastal C +6.5 with Virginia -8.5(line changed) with:

KEY Coastal C +6.5 with Syracuse +18.5 ($25 each) with:

1. Tenn Martin -3.5

2. Vandy -6

3. Iona +0.5

4. South Dakota +15.5

5. Colgate -0.5

Thanks Spottie.... I have my head down doing plays most of the time 

@Last2thirst

Support bets winning margin in BET365 for my TEASER KEY at 1 pm

HALF U > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by -7 to -9 paying +800

$25 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 10-13 paying +750

$10 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 3-6 paying +500

$10 > winning margin bet > UMASS to win by 1-2 paying  +850

$10 > winning margin bet > Coastal to win by 1-2 paying  +1100

$10 > winning margin bet > Coastal to win by 3-6 paying  +600

$115 investment > should get back $60 to $450 return support my $325 bet on TEASERS .....I have learned that its better to support myself getting wiped out than to just ride the tide ...TEASERS are tricky at times