All data inputted except tonight..... here is an update of BEST FADES of rank combos and best 'take the favorite' situations:
- will also be updating my team ranks tonight (I do better when I keep this on a 2-3 game update!)
Best FADE the favorite combos on any spread:
-34 (40 - 74 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 favorite facing #231 - 280
-20 (41 - 61 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent
-9 (5 - 14 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces #151 - 190 opponent
-14 (13 - 27 ATS) > #151 - 190 favorite faces #121 - 150 opponent
-14 (27 - 41 ATS) > #41 - 65 favorite faces #66 - 90 opponent
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When to highly consider taking the favorite using their spread:
+14 (40 - 26 ATS) #91 - 120 faces an opponent ranked #231 - 280
+19 (82 - 63 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #281 - 330
+8 (30 - 22 ATS) #41 - 65 faces an opponent ranked #91 - 120
+6 (9 - 3 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #121 - 150
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+16 (46 - 30 ATS) #151 - 190 faces an opponent ranked #331 - 365
+11 (41 - 30 ATS) #1 - 20 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90
Hump Day:
Play #1 - UNDER SAB-App St 129.5 x 1U
-App St point reduction on defense caught my eye when updating my statistics and I already know SAB's preferred style of basketball is to get into a rock fight with a similar style of team
- common opponents where they have scored low on for both of them land under 125 pts and plenty of times under 120!
-App St is playing so well lately and SAB has had to be forced to play more offensive minded to win vs poorer defenses
** I can be wrong on these type of angles, but tend to get the right feel for my first play lately**
Play #2 - Parlay Wofford -9 with Over 149 x HALF U ..... Wofford traditionally hammers their local rival and they are better this year and VMI is worse this year.... BUT, I notice VMI likes to jack up a lot of shots so I think Wofford will enjoy that pace and score well over 80 and VMI might surprise and score higher than 68 pts ...they scored 81 vs Mercer!
Will definitely have some more plays later but these ones stood out for my soccer parlays this afternoon and early evening.....love betting Brazil soccer!
Play #3 - Double Positive - but being cautious because home team has played well since their last meeting!
Navy -4 x HALF U
- beat Lafayette by 24 at home and only allowed Laf. to score 50
- Navy can be impotent on the road sometimes with scoring so I am being cautious here and not pressing
- one of the strongest positive spreads for this favorite rank group and strong rank group correlation positivity
Play #4 - St Thomas/SDST OVER 156 x 1.5U
-this game will be a track meet.... SDST loves to score at home and play fast for their crowd...STT has a great offense so I can see this one sailing over the number with both sides scoring over 80 pts and how high, well, last year they had a game go over 180 pts but I think both teams are better and more offensive this year
-I would bang this play if it appeared on a low game volume night but $150 is good enough
Play #5 - take the bait play 
Texas AM +8.5 x 1U
- Alabama disappoint me a lot ...they have trouble finishing games or coming back in games at home this year .....and Texas AM is a very sound offense and well coached...they can stay in any game against any team
- I find this line to be odd and maybe it speaks to the desperation Bama has not dropping to a 5th seed or worse?
That looks good Schultz 
.... I see another play that I thought I posted but I guess not ..... it can be combined with what you have as well as the other total plays individually for a threeway....fourway teasers even better pay +210 on BET365
Sparty I love ....and Minny is a grinding team who can shock a good team once in a while....I lean the UNDER on this and don't like the line or ML
I can see a score like 68 - 62 or 65 -58 in that game.......if SPARTY goes over 70 pt pace, you can bet Izzo is going to ask them to focus on defense....no way Minny can score 70 on Sparty's defense unless they are hitting godlike 3 pt %
Funky things happen in Feb leading up to the Conference tourneys
Play #5 - shoot, forgot to mention this one earlier and its dropping fast /took it with Mancester City in EFL Cup play today and mixing with other basketball and Brazil A soccer plays
Coastal Carolina Under 151.5 (I got 153.5) x HALF U
-wouldn't go nuts on this one but still think the total is too high
-Coastal another team I noticed really bringing down their defense pts per game and winning a lot of tight games that are sometimes gritty lowish scoring games
-Ark St not winning much lately and have a good team ....the play best when controlling the score vs another good opponent like them
I really think this TOTAL should be about 143.5 - 145.5
Hump Day:
Play #1 - UNDER SAB-App St 129.5 x 1U 
Play #2 - Parlay Wofford -9 with Over 149 x HALF U 
Play #3 - Navy -4 x HALF U
Play #4 - St Thomas/SDST OVER 156 x 1.5U Overs are becoming tougher to complete ....things have flipped
Play #5 -Coastal Carolina Under 151.5 (I got 153.5) x HALF U
I suppose I could have done more games but I am not done updating my data and that is more important in my opinion .....it affects results for the next 7-10 days. I should be ready tomorrow for the full slate
Hey Brew, congrats on the TexAM teaser cover ....nicely done 
....was considering following you but have a lot going on today in the early evening
And SPARTY!
Buyer beware on hunch betting !.... my correlation stats should remain true hence, why I spent the time and going to continue to spend the time....getting my spreadsheet and data updated on a 7 day cycle to reflect changes so that we can hopefully take advantage
The following matchups today fall into these two categores for plays today > now, I want to personally dig into the matchups and select which ones are ideal ....all of these are ideal for TEASERS most likely, regardless of matchup. FADES seem to be hitting a lot more than faves covering for the last couple of weeks and this will likely continue ...its about a 60% cover for + pts on good FADE matchup approximately....when I look at daily results
Best FADE the favorite combos on any spread:
-34 (40 - 74 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 favorite facing #231 - 280
-20 (41 - 61 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent
Hampton + pts (h) vs Elon
Northeastern + pts @ Hofstra
Dener + pts @ NDST
Jacksonville St +pts @ W. Kentucky
Iona +pts @ Siena
Weber +pts (h) vs N.Colorado
EWU +pts @ Montana
Idaho +pts @ Montana St
Long Beach +pts @ UC San Diego
***selected FADE suggestions are based on 1AM lines .....many lines have moved overnight and checking now /doing matchups on these first. I will post DOUBLE positive correlations later
Play #1 - Michigan Under 161.5 x 1.5U << pay back for ugly 1.5 pick with SDST-STT last night (big whiff!)
- a lot of attention was paid to Sparty's outside 3pt shooting in their comeback and I saw something out of Michigan that speaks to what they are working on as they head toward NCAAB tourney....they looked lockeddown inside and PSU will get little there so that leaves a below .500 team to jack up shots on the outside late in the clock and I don't think PSU will score more than 65 this game...would be shocked
-the question becomes....will Michigan score 90 with early clock buckets? I doubt but say they score 95....I still cover!
Play #2 Marist Under 135.5 x 2U
- no reason to stomp Rider ....they already have in their building
- Marist plays tough defense...that is who they are and that should rule out Rider scoring more than 55 pts .....Marist shouldn't score more than 80 ...no reason too and if they do, I suspect, they will keep Rider below 55 easily
- last score was 71-49
Play #3 - Bellarmine Over 147.5 x 1U
-Stetson runs up scores against offensive teams .....and Bellarmine has a very weak defense and impressive offense .....this game should be flowing with scoring
-Bellarmine in top #30 for FG and 3PT ....Vegas had this line -6 and it dropped....you have to ask yourself, if it dropped, was it because of Stetson's defense or offensive ability?? If you see what I see, it has to be its re-invigorated scoring which has lead to some wins
I think this is a press play and I may regret doing so....but I have been terrible picking OVERs to cover lately
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