L2T Conference Betting Thread

@Last2thirst

Nicely done good sir! Montana looking good and Hawaii coming up!

Just wanted to say thanks for the picks man, I absolutely crushed today tailing you. Much respect!

Good to hear 

I seem to get better results consistently with smaller game selection programs from Sunday to Friday. Saturday, I am hopeless but might play some 5pt TEASERS tomorrow and 1-2 press selections. Be cautious my friend

I have a TOTAL play I am going to post next... for tonight

Friday:

Play #1 - Kent - Akron UNDER 167 x 1U

- check their matchup history....all games under 161 pretty much

-also, check their defensive stats and gameflow....they tend to focus on their offensive sets and using clock when playing an equal or near equal team that they are competitive with

I am predicting one team to score low 80's and the other in the 70's (at best)

-been hot on UNDER plays but that could change soon.....I think it speaks to what I see every year around end of Jan and into Feb where coaches start to practice switching defences/zones and clock management into their practices to use come Conference time to get into NCAA tourneys

- I might be wrong on that but when I see UNDER teams going OVER more and Over teams going UNDER around this team every year, I can only conclude that coaches are now prepping and tinkering with their approach for the post season

Play #2 - Over Princeton - Cornell 158.5 x HALF U

-Cornell is good to score 85-100 pts no matter the time of defense they play

- if Princeton wants a shot at winning, they will have to keep pace and score 75- 85 in game flow so consider the low number for both and it should cover this total. Last 2 games between them, were 160 and 170+ but Princeton changed their offensive style from Princeton offense 

-Cornell is 40th in offense efficiency and Princeton #274 ....despite Princeton playing a tight clock utilization offense over the years...all totals between these teams still hit 140-160 ....and this is one of Cornell's worst defenses in the past couple so I stick to the fact that Princeton will score in this game on most possessions close to the bucket most likely and so fouling will happen too, much more 

I will have a play on Grand Canyon for sure.....

Grand Canyon Under 140.5 x HALF U  for now .....this will be a gritty game.... GC will slow things down because they have some bench issues with injuries and the starters will have to play extra minutes so I expect more half court sets ....Boise already got beat by the by 13 at home so they will come in hoping to play better defense too and they can

I will pick a side later....watching the line 

Sparty game.... I lean SPARTY +100 if you can get it but just a recreational bet

I love both of these teams and Izzo as a coach is an old school fave of mine....met him long time ago at a coaches conference in Nashville back in the 90's and have a softspot for this program ever since. (Went with a friend who was a high level b-ball coach/ I was a high level v-ball coach and player so I went. My friend got a overhead signed by Jerry Tarkanian of UNLV ...that was cool! Izzo didn't want to chat with any of the public coaches)

I think Michigan is the best team in college and will prove this overwhelming a young Arizona team who is poised and talented but I tip my hat to either Sparty or Wolverines could beat them on neutral

1 - 1.... + HALF U with one game open where I make 1U tonight or break even

This Sparty game is typical....Sparty plays better from behind and chasing 

May not be playing tomorrow fellas....

We just firmed up a bowling lane for 2 hours at 4 pm and I have to clean all morning and leave early to get in line so our friends can meet us and then they are coming over after for burritos and sweet potato fries and some drinking ..... maybe some music so it looks like I am out and gonna skip a day that knocks the shit out of me each week. 

I will have a look later and line up the games and see if some ringers stand out that I might decide on 1-2 plays and press.... it just depends

BOL tomorrow

@Last2thirst

 sounds like a good day

@Last2thirst

Enjoy a Staurday away from this. Maybe just wht the Doc ordered to snap the Splaturday doldrums.

Thank guys.... I agree Brew/ Schultz!! Colonel Hogan needs a night out and maybe a freulein later haha

Hey fellas....use this site for ranking...it updates overnight > https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/#scroll-related

Best combos for FADE or take the FAVORITE despite any spread:

Best FADE the favorite combos  on any spread:

-27  (36 - 63 ATS) > when favorite is ranked #151 - 190 favorite facing #231 - 280

-20  (37 - 57 ATS) > #91 - 120 favorite faces #231 - 280 opponent 

-9    (8 - 17 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #331 - 365 opponent

-8    (5 - 31 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces  #151 - 190 opponent

-7    (6 - 13 ATS) > #121 - 150 favorite faces #91 - 120 opponent

-12  (22 - 34 ATS) > #21 - 40 favorite faces  #91 - 120 opponent

------------------------------------------------------------

When to highly consider taking the favorite using their spread: 

+15  (38 - 23 ATS) #91 - 120 faces an opponent ranked #231 - 280

+12  (38 - 26 ATS) #1 - #20 faces an opponent ranked #66 - 90

+6   (9 - 3 ATS)   #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #121 - 150

+17 (71 - 54 ATS) #191 - 230 faces an opponent ranked #281 - 330

@Last2thirst

Name me the SEC team that has the toughness and skill set to bang with this Michigan team....big...smart, shooters, fast and finish around the basket....and defensively they can bang and cover

You might watch a more impressive team with speed but you won't beat this package ....even guys off the bench are big and talented

ACC team?

Only team with this size and smoothness and composure I have seen is Arizona but they are young ...

DUKE and MICHIGAN playing this month 

Kansas might be the sleeper team....have you guys seen them play defense and then crank it up ....Duke is similar 

Play #1

By the way, Kansas at home tomorrow is Kansas -4 vs BYU  x 1U....best player in the land will have issues here and Kansas home court is way too tough to sustain great play the whole game

Kansas Defense:

Season Stats Rank
POINTS/G 67.3  #25
FG % 37.9       #6
3PT % 29.1     #13
FT % 65.8       #3
Rebounds/G 32.0   #190

Offense:

Season Stats Rank
POINTS/G 78.3   #174
FG % 47.4          #70
3PT % 35.8         #82
FT % 76.5          #39
Rebounds/G 36.5  # 52

BYU with a slightly tougher schedule but vastly weaker stats coming into a tough building ..... this line is too low. I like BYU but they just had a very tough game vs Arizona at home and lost and now travel vs a tough BIG12 team again???

Play #2 Saturday - Mercer -17.5 x 1U

- teams with Mercer's ranking are 45 - 26 ATS vs teams with the lowest percentile ....and VMI got smoked by a very bad team and now face a team that is twice as good as Citadel? VMI second road game vs a team that is 10 - 0 at home will not work out well

So far, I count 6 Double FADES from 11am - 3 pm....... some lines to fade the favorite and hit probably 4 out of 6 and maybe a good ML play in there

-- it all stems from teams ranked 151 - 190 facing any team as a favorite under the rank of #330 and having a line UNDER -16....this group consistenly is the worst FADE week in and week out

Looking for more situations

A Saturday with friends and family, away from sports gambling is always a good thing!!

Thats what matters!!  

Thank you for all of your contributions!!!

You guys are great  ..... I tend to get friends and family in the evening but ya, we are getting back to getting some friends together and doing some fun stuff together that me and my wife do during the day or off the cuff (watching horseracing, bingo, bowling, biking or walking to different parts of the city and trying new stores or restaurants, etc.... I find a lot of friends have been 'grinding' through life with inflation and other issues these past years.... gambling finds openings for enjoyment (and distress if you press too hardly or don't slow down once in a while ...which is not the way I am feeling but its important to put other  things ahead of it for sure)

L2T.......

Inputting data from the last 3 days and my BEST FADES and FAVORITES /SPREADS to take without batting an eye should appear at some point today or tomorrow....

FEB 1 on the Calendar. 28 days to go until Conference playoffs begin. Some OBSERVATIONS from someone who inputs data every data and analyzes scores/results and rankings ....gets familiar with matchups:

1. If you are going to beat a top BIG 10 team, you better be able to play defense, be tough, have size which can move and be flexible in their game and most of all....be able to get a shot off with someone on you or contorting your body.....I have watched for in the past 40 days+ .... what constitutes a winning formula combo of shutting down teams, coming from behind, and making life difficult to get off a 3 pt shot and at the same time, frustrating the other team into fouling you and you making your shots when counted on in the 2nd half...... WHO PLAYS LIKE THIS?

a. Michigan

b. Nebraska

c. Michigan St

d. Duke 

e. Arizona 

f. Texas occasionally

g. Houston

h. UCONN

i. Kansas

Now.....I am probably missing some teams here.....but I am going on HOW they win, from WATCHING and what I see in the Stats.

Last year, Houston  was able to crank up their defense from round 32 and all the way to the finals, but more importantly shot way above their season FG% I recall and FT% improved .... In 2024, it was Alabama being a very offensive team finding a way to get defensive and had UCONN on the ropes in their final 4 game playing that way but just did not have enough in the last quarter.....it was very noticeable that  and do the little dirty things you need to beat the list of teams above from a-i that know how to implement this 'style' that is effective in the NCAAB tourney. Go and watch in Youtube the Michigan/Sparty game Friday and you will see an NCAAB Elite 8 or better type of game style that was played yesterday.

I would watch for the other groups of teams and see if their scoring totals are coming down vs other offensive teams, OR see if their stats are improving on defense + FT shooting + 3PT defense for this month...note their stats as of today, and then you will be able to add your mix of potential climbers through the NCAAB tourney. I am also watching for increases in FG%..... zone defenses start to appear more this month to get ready for the tourney....benches come into the mix a little more and can alter team stats.

Back with some matchup angles today most likely.... the break was refreshing for me and we had a blast bowling ...at one point all of us in game 2/3 hit a run of 3 strikes in a row, and spares were being executed well.... I hit a high of 168 on the day and a low of 105 so the consistency is coming...I bowl now about once a 3-4 weeks but we are going to crank it up I think. Had some karaoke with my satellite radio stations last night ....that was good. Sirius on a Saturday night plays some good stuff!  

By the way, forgot to list Illinois in my list in the previous post....notice I didn't mention Purdue? Illinois beat them in their own building by 5+

My list of 'dirty little teams' not in top 30, that if they get in the tourney, they will be in most games/push through some: 

No order to this but bolded teams are most impressive:

1. St. Louis > have beaten 2 teams on this list in squeakers (#3 and #4) and check out their shooting stats, rebounding and shooting defense....very very impressive

2. Iowa ...look at the teams they have beaten and the style they play /stats....perfect for NCAAB tourney style

3. Grand Canyon

4. Santa Clara

4. SMU ...nice size everywhere and sneaky team that buckles down to be in every game vs tough opponents

5. Winthrop ...note their results vs Arkansas and Nebraska 

6. UCLA ... I think Cronin LOVES being in the BIG10 style of basketball and his team is some coaching/player magic away from making some noise if they get there...Cronin is proven in NCAAB tourney history and has the team to make some bracket noise with the right setup

7. Indiana or Oho St?? Or both

8. Belmont ....an interesting team like Miami Ohio but have played a tougher schedule than Mia Ohio ...they can beat all next tier conference teams they face and have excellent stats and if they can get out of their Conference Playoffs...look out

9. Utah St ...similar resume to Grand Canyon but lost to them and beat a lot of excellent Tier 2 conference teams

10. New Mexico...right there with Utah St and GC as gritty MW conference teams with great stats and wins ...played the toughest schedule out of all MW teams 

Not including Miami Ohio despite great offensive stats and pretty good defense stats too....just an unknown not facing a Big 5 conference team yet ...Akron played Purdue and lost by 18, Akron lost to MiAMI OH by 3 on the road