L2T Conference Betting Thread

Tuesday results:

Play #1 - Vanderbilt -6.5 x 2U   - 

Play #2 - UMASS +9.5 x HALF U  - 

Play #3 / #4 - Virginia -10 x HALF U  

UNDER 141.5 x 1U  

Play #5 New Mexico -4 x HALF U - TBD

Guaranteed + Units tonight....that is all I care about ....growing the stack > 2 - 2 ATS +1U and NEW Mexico could be gravy

Wednesday:

Play #1 - Navy -1.5 x 1U

- I like the OVER better ...but this is a strong double positive correlation

- spread is 61 - 40 success for fave's rank correlation

- rank group is 71 - 54 ATS for Navy's group as fave

Play #2 - OVER 139.5 x 2U

-Boston are relentless at home

- they shoot from anywhere and quickly with many 3 pt shots and usually pretty good success from their floor to hit over 70 pts

- Navy has a good offense but even better defense....regardless, their first matchup had 159 pts with Navy at home

- surely score will fall somewhere in between? Last year Boston at home had total at 164!

I have some more plays but have to line watch and spend more time with the matchup....I have a DOUBLE FADE but the line is dropping which I hope it stops falling and goes the other way ...will check tomorrow

Play #3 - Beavers and Loyola Marymount Under 141 x 1U

-both teams can play defense and don't terrify you with offense....both are on the struggle so I don't anticipate one team playing loosely but can see one team scoring under 65 pts and the other NOT going off on the opponent....chances of both playing a high tempo loose game is low in my opinion

I really don't love tonight ....

I like this Georgia team and think ML is good value or they are a great teaser with Vols -1 now.....the UNDER 159.5 is potential 

@Last2thirst

Taking a whack at GA +5 and under 163.25...

I think that will be good 

I am mulling turning Saturdays into 1-2 play presses + some HALF U teasers to piss around....people think teasers are easy, but I know from experience, that is the seduction and you can lose your head and money easily thinking you have 'the 5 pt booster angle to solidify your play(s)'

They might score 50 in the first 10 min of the 2nd half ...woooo .....NAVY game? Maybe not....my math is off 

Dam OT!

1 - 1 - 1 yesterday(-1 U) > Loyola got a steal with 11 seconds left and hit a late 3 pt to screw the situation as I had that last play in hand but it voided

Looking into today's games....now 

Play #1 - UNDER Drexel 129.5 x 2U

-they are strong at home but defensive or adaptable to visitor's style

-Hampton is a low scoring team

-watch for Drexel to score 64-69 pts and Hampton to be held to UNDER 57 pts 

I see more plays....that can likely fit with correlations but gonna be slow ....this is a matchup play I really like 

Play #2 - Coastal-SAB UNDER 140.5 x HALF U

-two more teams whose preferred styles are defensive

- I do expect this one to be tight most of the game because Coastal has a decent record on the road which leads to a lower scoring outcome 

-this total will get close but not go over

Play #3 - Georgia St Over 129.5 x 1U

-playing real well lately and scoring ....they can control the opponent

-ULL has completely abandoned their defensive style and scores go over the 140 Total regularly

-defensive stats have bloomed into ugly territory and at home, they play a more open style all season

7PM Double Fades:

-take W.Carolina +9.5 vs ETSU

-take NC Greensb +11 vs Mercer

Double Positive setup for Favorite:

Lipscomb -4  @ Jacksonville

Personal Fave Play - they rarely let me down at home!

Play #4 - S.Dakota -3 x 2U 

Play #5 -S.Dakota Over 154 x 1U

-they are great dogs at home but they are rated better than Oral Roberts....they tend to score well at home and a lot for a rabid home crowd!

Slowing down now...might suggest some more DOUBLES for YOU to try for 8 pm games maybe and 9pm....will only take a stab at one more likely

L2T......

TENN-Martin is a DOUBLE POSITIVE taking the favorite -3.5 @ E.Illinois

....that is the only strong double correlation I see so far with 8 pm games 

9pm

Double Positive 

 Illinois -13 or any line around it ..... good number and rank correlation to take them and they are wicked at home!

Double Fade 

Montana +5 @Portland St 

Hawaii +2.5 @ UCIRVINE ....huge fade on this spread especially

@Last2thirst

Recap Thursday:

Play #1 - UNDER Drexel 129.5 x 2U  

Play #2 - Coastal-SAB UNDER 140.5 x HALF U  << this one is safe ....only 39 scored at half!

Play #3 - Georgia St Over 129.5 x 1U  << just need 56 pts in the second half.... I think I'm good (scored 74 so far)

-----------------------------------------

Play #4 - S.Dakota -3 x 2U   << line dropping all day...shoot they are behind at half

Play #5 -S.Dakota Over 154 x 1U  <<< need a miracle 

-------------------------------------------

Looks like I will guaranteed +HALF U regardless of SD outcome....lets put it on:

Lets go for it

Illinois -12.5 x HALF U

OVER 153 x 1U 

Montana +5 x HALF U

@Last2thirst

Here comes South Dakota 

F@&k ya ! keep going !!!!!  

Recap Thursday:  - putting my feet up now !

 Play #1 - UNDER Drexel 129.5 x 2U  

Play #2 - Coastal-SAB UNDER 140.5 x HALF U  

Play #3 - Georgia St Over 129.5 x 1U  

-----------------------------------------

Play #4 - S.Dakota -3 x 2U   

Play #5 -S.Dakota Over 154 x 1U   

4 - 1 ATS   +4.5 U

----------------------------still to come....

Illinois -12.5 x HALF U

OVER 153 x 1U 

Montana +5 x HALF U

Really happy with how things are going with just running with the TRENDS and doing the occasional matchup side or total..... my input system and more importantly, my consistent updating of all data is bearing fruit for me as my account is pushing +$1500 in Conference Play to go with the profit in the Non Conf session of the season. 

Some advice. After one really bad week that I dug myself out of with one play, I really have had positive weeks so my care of selection is going up and do not be surprised if I get less selective because, with a good run comes something behind it..... in most years ....a bad run for a week or two! As long as I follow my protocols of not being lazy and updating my data, I should be fine