Posted:
#776
Your Illinois College Football Team will win Their Bowl Game on Wed..
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December Hoops
Posted:
#777
12/26 Results: Hope you all had a good Christmas.
Sides: 31-20, +12.70
Totals: 20-10, +8.70
DNP: 38-29
12/27 Notes: Fordham and Georgia Tech has been cancelled due to the storm. It’s really hard not to look at the points in the Penn State and Indiana game to open the Big Ten. Neither team has played well as of late and neither team is really discipline enough to compete in the Big Ten against upper tier teams. I have both these teams tied in the cellar of conference play. Probably some added value accrued on Penn State as well with the loss at home to Maine prior to coming in here. Both teams are playing exact styles as last year, but both are getting up a bit more shots. Both teams are taking some pretty poor shots on the offensive end as well, with early shots being taken in the shot clock. The two teams played to a 128 total last year, but there was 116 shot attempts, 42 three-point attempts, and very few free throw attempts. Penn State might try to slow other teams down, but I don’t think they will here. They’re just as good on the offensive end and the up-tempo style of play combined with pressure defense on the wing provided by Indiana should allow plenty of shots to be taken. If they can put up 116 shots like last year, this should go over. Both teams coming off a bit of a break could hurt both offenses, but if these teams past games are any indication, it might help the total here with plenty of shots being taken early with poor chemistry within the offensive sets occurring. I’m a pretty firm believer in George Washington games pointing to the over b/c of the # of shots they get up in any game, hovering at or around the average of 57-58 a game. However, playing UAB is a different story. Just to give an idea of how good their defense actually is, they have allowed opponents to attempt 60 field goals SEVEN times this year, and here are the results:
11/17: 60 Opponent Shots, 71 Opponent Points, 147 Total Points
11/20: 61 Opponent Shots, 69 Opponent Points, 135 Total Points
11/23: 66 Opponent Shots, 58 Opponent Points, 140 Total Points
11/26: 66 Opponent Shots, 65 Opponent Points, 135 Total Points
11/29: 60 Opponent Shots, 57 Opponent Points, 135 Total Points
12/01: 61 Opponent Shots, 53 Opponent Points, 112 Total Points
12: 05: 61 Opponent Shots, 59 Opponent Points, 134 Total Points
Neither team has played in a week, and the little break from Christmas should slow down George Washington who has now scored 80+ in two straight games. The only two times GW has played top 100 defenses this year, they have scored 51 and 46. The team was also held below 60 in at least five games last year versus top 100 defenses. Should continue to stand true here as well. UAB’s also got Duke on tap, should be a slight sandwich spot with Christmas/Duke. I expected the total to be listed a bit higher, but this still holds value, enough to bet it on my side. Missouri and Northern Illinois should put up some points, and I would not be shocked to see Missouri in the 90-100 point range. Northern offers very little defense and they like to go up and down. Might be a bit of a sandwich game for Missouri between Illinois and ODU, but they have been putting up some good offensive numbers this year and I see no reason for it to stop until conference play begins. Missouri can match up well with NIU outside of trying to defend Xavier Silas, who is putting up 26 a game, but is coming off a game in which he shot 3-19 from the floor in a 49-point team outing. I lean over here, and I think it’s safe as long as NIU can put up points in the 54-56 range. I lean to Pitt based on my pre-season projections, having Pitt at the top and Uconn mid-pack, but I’m not laying high chalk. I expect Uconn to take some lumps in the Big East this year. Yes, they’re 10-0, but they’ve played an undoubtedly easy schedule to do so. Pittsburgh is just the real deal, both offensively and defensively, and this is a first true road game for Uconn, while Pitt’s done nothing this year but play at home and on neutral settings. Tough spot for a first true roady. No real interest in Nevada at Portland, or Ohio State pummeling Tenny Martin.
Bets
George Washington/UAB Under 133.5 (1 Unit)
DNP: NIU/Missouri Over 152.5, Penn State/Indiana Over 132
GL
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Posted:
#783
NROPP- I'm with you on your picks. I love the Missouri pick. They indeed will put up tons of points at home. Silas will keep N.Illinois scoring some points.
The Pitt line is begging people to take UConn-hence almost 70% of the public on a #4 team catching 7 points from a lower ranked team. Pitt is the real deal like you said, UConn is the product of a weak schedule and a hot Kemba Walker. Can easily see Pitt winning by 10 points here.
however, BOL to you.
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Posted:
#785
Neil - Great job as usual on CFB. As a rule over the holiday break, I like to give more value to the road team, especially in conference games. A conference road game is tough when school is in session. But I think its slightly easier venue to play in our the break... I think the coaches have the kids attention for game planning. I think there are less distractions over the break, i.e. no classes, less kids on campus, the bars are dead, etc... Plus its hard to fill an arena over the break. For example, PSU-IU, given that Battle will play, I like the +7 for PSU. Am I off on this theory?
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Posted:
#786
Quote Originally Posted by timwwi:
Nropp
I just found your thread. Super job! What are your typical
expectations for the last 3 months in conference play? Your record
is solid so far and do the results usually carry over into conference play? Thanks again and keep up the good work!
Nropp
I just found your thread. Super job! What are your typical
expectations for the last 3 months in conference play? Your record
is solid so far and do the results usually carry over into conference play? Thanks again and keep up the good work!
Typically, I have been better in-conference play that out-of-conference. Can't promise it's going to continue, but I have a lot more familiarity with what these coaches and teams will do in-conference than out of it. In the past, I've been lucky to be up going into January, usually tread water until conference play begins.
I also risk quite a bit more once regular conference games start, so take that with a grain of salt...
GL
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Posted:
#787
Quote Originally Posted by Liquorinfront:
Neil - Great job as usual on CFB. As a rule over the holiday break, I like to give more value to the road team, especially in conference games. A conference road game is tough when school is in session. But I think its slightly easier venue to play in our the break... I think the coaches have the kids attention for game planning. I think there are less distractions over the break, i.e. no classes, less kids on campus, the bars are dead, etc... Plus its hard to fill an arena over the break. For example, PSU-IU, given that Battle will play, I like the +7 for PSU. Am I off on this theory?
Neil - Great job as usual on CFB. As a rule over the holiday break, I like to give more value to the road team, especially in conference games. A conference road game is tough when school is in session. But I think its slightly easier venue to play in our the break... I think the coaches have the kids attention for game planning. I think there are less distractions over the break, i.e. no classes, less kids on campus, the bars are dead, etc... Plus its hard to fill an arena over the break. For example, PSU-IU, given that Battle will play, I like the +7 for PSU. Am I off on this theory?
You could be right, but I've always been the kind of guy that likes these kids to stick to normal schedules, which includes classes, regular practice schedules, etc...I've commented on it probably a thousand times this year with people coming off breaks, playing weekend day or morning games, etc..., I just like to protect my investments in the most "normal" routine...I would lean PSU in that game but couldn't muster enough to make a play...
GL
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Posted:
#790
Good morning nropp
I just come accross cover.com and your thread couple weeks ago
Keep up the good work enjoy your write ups.I don't follow many threads just one in MBL and Dr. Bob's. https://drbobsports.com/ Been with him for years.
Have you hear of Dr. Bob ,I want to forward some of his write ups and want to know what is your opinion.
BOL 
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Posted:
#792
Quote Originally Posted by wmycw:
Good morning nropp
I just come accross cover.com and your thread couple weeks ago
Keep up the good work enjoy your write ups.I don't follow many threads just one in MBL and Dr. Bob's. https://drbobsports.com/ Been with him for years.
Have you hear of Dr. Bob ,I want to forward some of his write ups and want to know what is your opinion.
BOL
Logout now and never log back in please. Thanks.
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Posted:
#795
12/27 Results: Hit another total, 1-0.
Sides: 31-20, +12.70
Totals: 21-10, +9.70
DNP: 39-30
12/28 Conference Notes: I’m in a tough spot with Purdue all year in the Big Ten. All of my research on them going into conference play featured Hummel and Hart, so I may not even look at their games for a while until I can comprehend what they’re doing different, if anything. Should be a bit of value on Minnesota if Nolen does in fact suit up because Wisconsin hasn’t really played a team with an inside presence all year, and definitely not in their last four games. Both teams have plenty of prep time going into conference play, so this should be a good matchup. I value Wisconsin slightly over Minnesota in conference play, so a few points of value on Minnesota here. Depaul has won three games in a row, so the confidence should be high going into conference play at Cincinnati. Cincy has won 12 straight and have failed to lose, while Depaul’s road games have been ugly. Cincy won this game last year by 5 despite not making a single three-point attempt and shooting 43% on a total of 32 free throw attempts. I think this is a rough spot for USF going on the road to open the Big East. Seton Hall hasn’t looked that great in previous losses to Dayton and Richmond, but their defense has been pretty good, and that’s really all you need to beat USF. The return of Gilchrist to the USF lineup will help them in the long-term for the season, but against a Seton Hall team that is going to get up and down, it could be a negative factor here having only played one game for 19 minutes in a much slower environment, conditioning could come into play. Seton Hall has looked awful without Hazell, but this could be one of the matchups that benefit them at the guard slot if they can control the pace and get USF up and down. Seton Hall also has revenge. Not really interested in Providence or Syracuse until I can see a bit more from both teams in conference play. Providence is pretty young, but they have some slashers that should help going against the zone. I will have more to offer on the Big West & Summit matchups in a bit.
12/28 Non-Conference Notes: Valpo has revenge from last year’s meeting with Ball State that saw Ball State shoot an amazing 58% from the floor, but what’s even more amazing, is that they attempted 48 free throws in that game compared to Valpo’s 24. It was a home opener for Ball State and the first road game for Valpo last year, so that could be the reason for the ugly game. This is a really weird scheduling spot Valpo. They just won a tournament in which they beat host school Oakland in a marathon of a game, and they have Butler on deck for an important Horizon League matchup. The thing that sticks out with this game is that both teams are coming off games where they scored 103 and 95 respectively. Now, they both have had a week off and with Christmas break, I wouldn’t expect anywhere near close to that. The two teams are pretty familiar with each other and both teams are much improved on the defensive side of the ball. Actually, Valpo has gotten TONS better defensively this year and it has showed. They still like to get up and down a bit, but Ball State should be able to control the pace here, and with the slight look ahead and sandwich situation with Valpo having Butler on deck, this is a pretty prime flat spot and one that points to the under. Both teams defend guards awfully well. Siena has been getting out in transition a bit more with Clarence Jackson out of the lineup to offset their offensive efficiencies. They’ve attempted shots of 61 and 57 in their last two, but have been shooting terribly. St. Bonaventure on the other hand, has played a game that went into 4 OT’s and followed that up with another OT game in which they looked gassed. With that said, probably not going to get a good effort from St. Bonaventure on the defensive end due to tired legs, and both teams should be able to get some shots up. The Bonnies have played two teams from the MAAC this year that totaled 150(Canisius) and 130 (Niagara). The Niagara game was lined at 144, and Siena brings in a much better offense, even without Jackson. There is some value in going over the 140, but I can’t play it with all these minutes logged by the Bonnies, break or no break. I like Niagara, although it’s more gut then anything. I can’t explain it. They match up decent at the guard spot, think they have a slight advantage in the post. They’re record is awful, but they’ve been on the road all year basically. They’re a team that is definitely under-performing, and I need to dig a bit deeper to see why.
Bets
Ball State/Valparaiso Under 135 (1 Unit)
DNP: Siena/St. Bonaventure Over 139
GL
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Posted:
#796
Quote Originally Posted by wmycw:
Good morning nropp
I just come accross cover.com and your thread couple weeks ago
Keep up the good work enjoy your write ups.I don't follow many threads just one in MBL and Dr. Bob's. https://drbobsports.com/ Been with him for years.
Have you hear of Dr. Bob ,I want to forward some of his write ups and want to know what is your opinion.
BOL
I have heard of him. I, however, put no weight on math models or "systems". I play value when I see it.
GL
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Posted:
#797
Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastFan:
Hey Nropp nice win today! How do you feel about the Michigan Purdue game tomorrow... I like Michigan in a close game at home getting plus 3.5
Touch on it above a bit. I will say that Beilein is probably one of the best "in-game" coaches that I've ever studied. His ability to not only prepare for a game, but to make in-game adjustments is second to none.
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Posted:
#798
Tonight is a perfect spot for Michigan. They are talented at every position. They are playing great. Purdue is getting love from past achievments and odds makers are making the lines as if Hummel is still playing. Line is low enough to get tons of action on the 11thranked team. Perfect spot for Michigan to come out with a SU win or at worst a cover. Line is going up as well.
I love Minnesota too. 8 points is alot for an inconference game. Alot of ppl still have the Pitt game on their mind where they were at home and covered a large number, so in reality alot of backers will take Wisconsin thinking the same way. However, Hoffarber and Sampson III will keep this game really close.
BOL to you NROPP on your plays- rode your UAB under last night, took the Mizzo over and Pitt also.. I don't like playing teams where I have not one clue about either so I'll sit out the VALPO game unless I get ballsy. However, goodluck.
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Posted:
#800
Quote Originally Posted by coversROTHSTEIN:
Tonight is a perfect spot for Michigan. They are talented at every position. They are playing great. Purdue is getting love from past achievments and odds makers are making the lines as if Hummel is still playing. Line is low enough to get tons of action on the 11thranked team. Perfect spot for Michigan to come out with a SU win or at worst a cover. Line is going up as well.
I love Minnesota too. 8 points is alot for an inconference game. Alot of ppl still have the Pitt game on their mind where they were at home and covered a large number, so in reality alot of backers will take Wisconsin thinking the same way. However, Hoffarber and Sampson III will keep this game really close.
BOL to you NROPP on your plays- rode your UAB under last night, took the Mizzo over and Pitt also.. I don't like playing teams where I have not one clue about either so I'll sit out the VALPO game unless I get ballsy. However, goodluck.
FYI - MN/Wisky .... "The Gophers, however, are expected to enter the game shorthanded, a theme this season. Freshman big man Mo Walker suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury in last week's victory over South Dakota State and is not expected to play."
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