Record stands : 0-1 - 4,400. Took a big hit the other day with Seaton Hall losing by 7 at home vs St. John’s. Got that back plus more over the weekend. I don’t play a lot of plays but, when I play I play to win big. This line is fishy. Campbell’s record is 16-17 and Monmouths record is 18-14 but , Campbell’s efficiency rating is 113.81 vs 108.17 for Monmouth. I look at the efficiency ratings at the beginning of my cap and then I look at the SOS. Per KP Campbell’s overall SOS is + 1.19 ranked #131st & their non- conference schedule ranks + 8.07 ranked #35th vs Monmouth’s overall schedule ranks - 2.58 ranked #220th & their non - conference schedule ranks - 3.33 ranked # 283rd. This difference is night and day, this is the only reason Monmouth’s defensive metrics are so much higher, is because, they’ve played such a weak schedule. The schedule of strength is 70 to 100 something spots every where I look. When I look at the overall strength of offense, defense, TO’s , rebounds, fouls , and basic knowledge of basketball, Campbell rates @ 0.59375 , compared to 0.50875 for Monmouth. So the team with a under 500 record vs a team with a winning record but has a higher efficiency rating with a higher BPR and I’m getting a point or better, I have to take advantage of the value here. FTA/FGA Campbell ranks 17th nationally @ 43.6 compared to 32.4 ranked # 252nd for Monmouth, stark difference. This is one of those games that when you read in between the lines and dig down hard in capping a game, you’ll find a solid winner. One more thing Campbell ranks 18th nationally compared to 300th for Monmouth at penetration drive short jumpers right near the rim. They get excellent looks at the rim instead of chucking 3’s all night long like a lot of new age teams. Give me Campbell + 1.5 3600/3000 GL
CAMPBELL + 1.5 vs MONMOUTH Large Write Up
I like to dig into stats. I also appreciate your posts so I'm not being a dick here.
I see 74% of bets and 79 percent of money on Monmouth at DraftKings. I see 50% of bets and 90% of money on Monmouth at Circa. This tells me both public and sharps are on Monmouth.
Looking at the numbers Kenpom has Campbell at 177 and Monmouth at 181.
Stat wise, Monmouth is better at three-point shooting and free throws. They also have a better defensive efficiency (134th to 200), and force more turnovers. Yes, your strength of schedule could argue a little against this.
Finally, this is the third game in three days for Campbell. Monmouth played yesterday but has better rest.
Monmouth has won 4 in a row and covered the spread yesterday. Monmouth lost to Campbell by three but also won by 15 at Campbell.
I think Monmouth wins a close one. We shall see. I don't think it is obvious one way or the other.
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