NFL week 15

NFL divisional home dogs in week 15 have hit 70% the last 30 years....Giants, Bears, Chargers. 

The issue with the Chargers is that Andy Reid in his coaching career is around 70 percent in divisional road games and his Chiefs are playing with revenge.

Plays:

1)  Bears +4

2)  Bengals +1.5

3)  Patriots +2

4)  Seahawks +7

Adding:

5)  Giants +10.5, -115

My college bowl picks played last week....

1)  Tennessee +115

2)  Western Michigan +6.5

3)  UTSA -2.5

4)  Utah State +7.5

5)  East Carolina +3

Adding:

6)  Raiders +6

NFL

Andy Reid is 115-73 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road, 49-21 ATS in divisional road games, 21-7 ATS (+6.0) with revenge in a divisional road game.

Best road teams in December, going back 20 years.....

a)  Washington 27-13 ATS

b)  Eagles 27-20 ATS

c)  Ravens 24-15 ATS

d)  Seahawks 24-16 ATS

e)  Chargers 24-16 ATS

worst.......Raiders 14-29 ATS, 49ers 20-28 ATS

Best home teams in December

a)  Seahawks 31-16 ATS

b)  Packers 28-16 ATS

c)  Patriots 27-17 ATS

Worst....Browns 12-25 ATS, Bucs 15-25 ATS

If one had played these angles this weekend you would have been 7-1 ATS with only the 49ers not following trend.

Worst away favorite.....Vikings 6-13 ATS

Worst home favorite(s)....Dolphins 12-21 ATS, Browns 5-9 ATS, Raiders 7-13 ATS, Cowboys 6-14 ATS

Worst away dog..........Raiders 11-27 ATS, Rams 9-19 ATS, Broncos 8-16 ATS

Deleting Raiders +6

Plays:

1)  Patriots +2

2)  Bengals +1'

3)  Giants +10', -115

4)  Bears +4

5)  Seahawks +7

Anyone noticed how similar Winnipeg was this year in comparison to Tampa Bay in the NFL....won last comp as the not dominant team....think the Bucs were about a 5th seed last year and Winnipeg in 2019 had to win two playoff road games before beating the favored Tiger-Cats.

This year the Bombers and Bucs have cruised, but in the playoffs the Bombers were VERY fortunate to win both playoff games and shouldn't have covered either one of them.

Bucs will have home field in the playoffs, but I won't be betting on them....typically it is a sucker play to bet on the number one seed, and the percentage play is to play on a dominant team that didn't win the title last season, as long as that team wasn't a Super Bowl loser.

That would point to Green Bay and Buffalo this season, but both quarterbacks are hurt.

Here ae a couple of Supter Bowl angles.

The team with the better last six game game record in the games previous to the Super Bowl has been 3-9 ATS in the big game.

For example, Team A won their last 6 games in a row prior to the Super Bowl and their opponent Team B won 4 out of their last six games.............you would bet on Team B. So when the media goes on about how a team is peaking in the last part of the season, it has been a myth that it is a positive factor in their Super Bowl spread performance.

playoffs=1 and tS(W, N=6)>oS(W, N=6) and conference!=o:conference

Second angle,....the team with the greater record the season prior has been 7-14 ATS in the Super Bowl.

playoffs=1 and PRSW>o:PRSW and conference!=o:conference

The team with better winning percentage coming into the Super Bowl has been 2-16 ATS.

playoffs=1 and tA(W)>oA(W) and conference!=o:conference

Teams with the better regular season record cover only 46% of their games in playoff games prior to the Super Bowl, and they cover 45% of the time if we eliminate games that they had a better record and were away favorites.

So, when predicting a champion, it is not common that a team with the dominant regular season, (like the Blue Bombers) will  cruise through the playoffs and of course the Bombers were far from  cruise-mode in their two playoff games.

This year in baseball, the team no one was talking about, the Atlanta Braves put it all together in the playoffs, when the Giants and Dodgers dominated the regular season, and the Astros crushed everyone in the American League.

The Lightning off their Stanley Cup victory the season prior, did not win their division the next season, before winning a second straight Cup.

The Tampa Bay Bucs won three straight road games in their run to the Super Bowl and were second in their division during the regular season.

The Milwaukee Bucks  were not the dominant regular season team in the championship season as they were the two previous seasons and they were down in both their  two  series versus the Nets and the Suns.  Will the Warriors cruise through the playoffs this season to a title?.....I wouldn't bet on them.

NFL.....

teams in December before week 17 off two consecutive home losses, the last as a home dog have been 32-24 ATS as Sunday away dogs.......Texans, Jets, Bengals

In week 15, these teams have been 10-4 ATS, and 5-1 ATS, 4-2 straight up if their next week line is stronger than their present opponent's next week line is 1)  Jets  and 2)  Bengals

1)  Jets' next week line is -1' at home versus the Jaguars

Dolphins' next week line is +3' @ Saints

2)  Bengals' next week line is -2' at home versus the Ravens

Broncos' next week line is -1 @Raiders

Teams that are fighting for a playoff birth in December perform poorly as home favorites meaning away dogs against those teams perform well.  I used the parameter of a winning percentage between 44-63% to play against those teams in "must-win" situations.  Away underdogs playing those desperate favorites have been 183-150 ATS in Sunday games, 55%.......Panthers, Jets, WFT, Bengals, Falcons

If the away dog has the stronger next week line, those teams have been 94-47 ATS.....Jets, Falcons, Bengals

Adding:

6)  Jets +8'

7)  Falcons +9

____________________

1)  Patriots +115

2)  Bengals +1'

3)  Giants +10', -115

4)  Bears +4

5)  Seahawks +7

ppp:H and pp:H and p:H and ats streak<-2 and AD and line<10

on: Texans 

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 ?and A and line<3

anti: Cowboys

taking this same query higher 

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 ?and A and line<-1

 favorites find it difficult to win the game

EDIT:

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 ?and A and line<3

ATS 5-13 (-3.9,27.8%) 

anti: Cowboys

taking this same query higher 

ATS 4-10 (-3.7,28.6%)

SU 7-7 (2.1,50.0%)

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 ?and A and line<-1

 favorites find it difficult to win the game

I dont know why the queries added a ? but plz omit those

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 and A and line<-1

p:A and pp:A and ats streak>1 and A and line<3

EDIT:

ppp:H and pp:H and p:H and ats streak<-2 and AD and line<10  

ATS 11-4 (3.8,73.3%)

on: Texans[/Quote]

Thanks Spot.

College bowl angles.....

1)  A December bowl dog of greater than 3 points in weeks 18/19......206-160 ATS, 56.3%

ODU, Kent State, Mizzou, UCF, N. Texas, ECU, Nevada, Houston, WVU, Texas Tech, Oregon, AZ State, South Carolina, Cinci, Wake Forest, E Michigan

2)  If our bowl dog of >=3 has less wins than their present opponent, in week 18 or 19......104-74 ATS.........

ODU, Mizzou, Ball State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Ball State, Purdue, South Carolina, Central Michigan

3)  If our bowl dog of >=3 in week 18 or 19 lost their previous game....88-64 ATS 57.9%

Kent State, East Carolina, Mizzou, Houston, Texas Tech Oregon, South Carolina, Wake Forest

4)  If our bowl dog of >=3 in week 18/19 lost two games ago....89-60 ATS, 59.7%

Ball State, Nevada, Texas Tech, Arizona State

5)  A week 18/19  bowl dog of >=3 points whose present opponent lost their previous game............. 90-55 ATS....62.1%

Kent State, Mizzou, North Texas, E Carolina, Houston, Texas Tech, Oregon, North Carolina, AZ State, Wake, C Michigan

Bowl angles...

6)  A December bowl dog that won at least 5 more games this season that their previous season before week 19.....17-9 ATS

NIU, ODU, Utah State

7)  A week 19 December bowl dog that won at least 5 more games this season than their previous season 0-5 ATS.....

VERSUS Houston, UCLA, Washington State

8)  A December bowl dog with a winning percentage of exactly 500 that won its last game, in week 17 or greater....30-12 ATS

ODU, North Texas, Ball State, West Virginia, Maryland

Adding:

8)  South Dakota State/Montana State OVER 47.5

__________________________________________

6)  Jets +8'

7)  Falcons +9

1)  Patriots +115

2)  Bengals +1'

3)  Giants +10', -115

4)  Bears +4

5)  Seahawks +7

Contest picks on right......

6)  Jets +8'

7)  Falcons +9.......................Falcons +9

1)  Patriots +115...................Patriots +2'

2)  Bengals +1'.....................Bengals +2'

3)  Giants +10', -115

4)  Bears +4.........................Bears +4

5)  Seahawks +7..................Seahawks +4'

8)  South Dakota State/Montana State OVER 47'

Adding:

9)   Toledo/MTSU UNDER 50'

10)  Coastal/NIU UNDER 63'

11)  UTEP/Fresno OVER 51

12)  UAB/BYU UNDER 54'

13)  Marshall/Lafayette OVER 55

Contest picks on right......

6)  Jets +8'

7)  Falcons +9.......................Falcons +9

1)  Patriots +115...................Patriots +2'

2)  Bengals +1'.....................Bengals +2'

3)  Giants +10', -115

4)  Bears +4.........................Bears +4

5)  Seahawks +7..................Seahawks +4'

 8)  South Dakota State/Montana State OVER 47'

9)   Toledo/MTSU UNDER 50'

10)  Coastal/NIU UNDER 63'

11)  UTEP/Fresno OVER 51

12)  UAB/BYU UNDER 54'

13)  Marshall/Lafayette OVER 55

14)  WKU +3

15)  Eastern Michigan +9'

Well, craziness raigns....covid continues on.

Looks like my Seahawks/Rams game is still on as my book stipulates the game must be played within the calendar week (Thursday-Wednesday) to not be voided.

Newspaper picks TO FADE this week are Bills, Bengals, Packers, which means you would play the Ravens, Saints and Broncos, 29-19 ATS on the season.

I am canceling my Bengals play.

Here's a very good angle in the NFL playoffs that I will put down so that I don't forget it.

I mentioned in a previous thread that first round playoff home favorites that won less games last season than their present opponent have been 13-31 ATS.

This moves to 1-13 ATS and 3-11 straight up,  if our home favorite isn't playing off a bye.  This year only one team has a bye, the number one seed.

Teams likely to host a first round playoff game that could fit this parameter are the:

1)  Cardinals, 8-8 last season

2)  Patriots, 7-9 last season

3)  Cowboys 6-10 last season