2023 United States Grand Prix Grand Prix 2023 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Austin Three-Peat Coming For Mad Max

The F1 Drivers' Championship odds race may be over but there's still work to be done before the end of this Formula 1 season. 

As the 2023 season enters its final stretch, the drivers will find themselves on North American soil for three of the final five races. That begins this weekend with the United States Grand Prix from Austin, TX. 

Having already broken the record for the longest win streak this season, Max Verstappen is in pursuit of more history as his current 209-point lead over teammate and second-place holder Sergio Perez would be a Formula One record if it holds. However, any slip-ups in the final five races could threaten Verstappen's ability to etch his name in the record books once again.

The qualifying round of the United States Grand Prix has already delivered some intrigue, with Charles Leclerc taking home the pole position and Verstappen slipping all the way down to sixth. 

Will the rest of the grid play spoiler to Verstappen's pursuit of history, or will Mad Max (like many times this season) continue to establish his dominance over the field?

We break down his chances to three-peat in our full Formula 1 betting preview for the 52nd United States Grand Prix below.

United States Grand Prix Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver	Team
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	-300
Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	+600
Lando Norris	McLaren	+600
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	+1,400
George Russell	Mercedes	+4,000
Sergio Perez	Red Bull	+4,000
Carlos Sainz	Ferrari	+5,000
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	+6,600
Pierre Gasly	Alpine	+15,000
Esteban Ocon	Alpine	+15,000

Odds as of October 21, 2023 (following Saturday's sprint race).

United State Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-162 at BetRivers)

After a disappointing showing during qualifying, Max Verstappen's odds to win the Sunday race have dropped from -350 to -162. And given how relatively poorly Friday went, it's actually a bit of a surprise that he only dropped that much.

But that is for good reason, as the winner of 14 of this year's 17 races thus far has proven his dominance over the rest of the grid. And after slipping to a fifth-place finish in Singapore, Verstappen has re-established himself with back-to-back wins in Japan and Qatar.

He is also the reigning back-to-back champion here in Austin and the largest threat to him during those wins was Lewis Hamilton, who has lost a step in the last year or so. If anything, Verstappen's biggest challenger come Sunday may be Lando Norris, who will start in the second position on Sunday and has strung together three straight podium finishes.

Best bet: Lando Norris to record a podium finish (+100 at FanDuel)

The best value on Sunday's board is for Lando Norris to take the podium for what would now be the fourth straight race. Interestingly enough, the opening odds for this prop was -140, yet despite finishing as the runner-up in qualifying, Norris' odds have gotten longer.

In our opening odds reactions, we did note that those -140 odds were too long and our exact recommendation was to only bet this prop if it reached even odds or better. Now that we've arrived at that exact point, it'd be disingenuous to recommend otherwise.

Norris not only brings with him podium finishes in three straight races, but he has also held or improved his position in eight of the last nine races. That level of consistency is hard to come by and an even-odds prop that cashes even if he were to drop a spot is hard to ignore.

Expect to see Norris on the podium come Sunday.

United States Grand Prix Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

United States Grand Prix Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-450 to -600)

It only took Max Verstappen 17 races to put the finishing touches on his third straight Drivers' Championship title — considering he won 14 of those.

He's won this race each of the last two years and is as short as -600 to do so again this season. Aside from that, there isn't much to say about Max's dominance that hasn't been said already. 

Oscar Piastri (+1,200 to +1,300)

It's been a tale of two halves for the McLarens. The rookie finished in the points just once in his first nine races but has finished seventh or better five times in the eight since then, including podium finishes in his last two races.

He outplaced his teammate Lando Norris in Qatar with a career-best runner-up finish and is neck-and-neck with him in Austin. 

Lando Norris (+1,200 to +1,300)

Like his teammate, McLaren star Lando Norris has turned his season around of late with five podium finishes in his last eight races. That recent uptick has seen him become one of the more highly-touted names on the betting board.

Norris finished sixth in Austin in 2022 but despite his recent string of podiums, he's yet to win a race in F1.

United States Grand Prix Grand Prix opening odds reaction

Max Verstappen to win (-350 at DraftKings)

Seeing these odds for Verstappen should be unsurprising — especially as of late. In fact, Verstappen hasn't had opening odds below -300 since the Hungarian Grand Prix, which was six whole races ago.

And if anything, there is a case to be made that the eventual 2023 Drivers Championship winner should be even shorter. He is the back-to-back winner of this grand prix and even won last year from the second position.

The only threat across those two wins has been Lewis Hamilton, who finished +5.023 seconds behind him last year and +1.333 seconds behind in 2021. But outside the arguable Formula One GOAT, the next most consistent threat would be Sergio Perez (+8.293 and 4th in 2022; +42.223 and 3rd in 2021).

Verstappen has the track record and of course, the recent form to suggest these odds may be short as-is, but it's still a lot of juice to swallow.

Lean: Only bet if his odds get longer post-qualifying, otherwise pass.

Lewis Hamilton to podium (+260 at FanDuel)

The now back-to-back runner-up is looking to bounce back after an early retirement knocked him out of the Qatar Grand Prix. It was Hamilton's first retirement of the season and his first in a whopping 26 races.

His 2023 campaign hasn't been bad by any means and is only viewed as a disappointment compared to his dominant run as the sport's best for nearly a decade. Outside of the retirement last time out, Hamilton has still managed to finish outside of the top six just once this season and still has hit the podium five times this season.

That has materialized itself into his current third-place position in the WDC standings, just 30 points behind Sergio Perez but also only 11 points ahead of Fernando Alonso.

Hamilton is looking to bounce back in a big way following the retirement in his last race, and his track record in races immediately following a retirement has been encouraging. From most recent onwards, he has finished 4th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 1st. Granted, the last of that list spans back to as far as 2014, but that's a product of how infrequently Hamilton has exited races early.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying, and re-bet if odds get longer post-qualifying.

Lando Norris to podium (-140 at BetMGM)

Outside of the continued Verstappen dominance, an emerging storyline as of late has been the ascent of Lando Norris. The sixth-year McLaren driver has never finished higher than sixth in the WDC standings but has put together a very impressive string of races.

He has not finished outside of the top eight in nine straight races now and that stretch includes five podium finishes, with four of those being second-place finishes. And arguably most impressively, he has held or improved his position in eight of those nine competitions. And zooming in even to just as of late, he has podiumed in three straight appearances.

However as it currently stands, Norris' -140 odds to podium are likely close to a fair market price. Given his larger body of work across this year and even his career, pricing him with a 58.3% implied probability to hit the podium is a bit steep.

Lean: Only bet if he reaches even odds or better.

Previous United States Grand Prix Grand Prix winners

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

• Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

• Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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