F1 Monaco Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds: Circuit de Monaco 2026

Eric Rosales - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst 27+ years betting experience
Updated: Jun 3, 2026 , 01:31 PM ET • 4 min read

Charles Leclerc returns to his home streets as the Monaco Grand Prix favorite, but championship leader Kimi Antonelli and Ferrari teammate Lewis Hamilton are close behind in one of the most unpredictable races on the Formula 1 calendar.

Ferrari's Charles Leclerc in action.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Ferrari's Charles Leclerc in action.

The Formula 1 calendar heads to one of motorsport's most iconic venues this weekend as the Monaco Grand Prix takes center stage on the streets of Monte Carlo.

Race day is set for Sunday at Circuit de Monaco, where hometown hero Charles Leclerc enters as the betting favorite after a strong start to the 2026 season.

Before the lights go out, check Monaco Grand Prix predictions, race preview, and the latest Formula 1 odds as drivers tackle the sport's most demanding street circuit.

📊 Monaco Grand Prix odds

Driver Polymarket Win probability
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +203 33%
Ferrari Lewis Hamilton +488 17%
Mercedes Kimi Antonelli +525 16%
Mercedes George Russell +614 14%
McLaren Lando Norris +733 12%
Red Bull Max Verstappen +1150 8%
McLaren Oscar Piastri +1329 7%

Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites

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📋 Monaco Grand Prix favorites

Charles Leclerc enters Monaco as the 33% favorite as he looks for his second win at his home race in the last three years. The Ferrari driver sits third in the Drivers' Championship and knows that qualifying will likely determine his chances around a circuit where passing is notoriously difficult.

Lewis Hamilton is next at 17% and brings plenty of Monaco pedigree with three career victories. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli sits close behind at 16% after winning four of the first five races of the season, while George Russell (14%) and Lando Norris (12%) round out the top contenders. Expect these odds to shift significantly following qualifying.

🏆 Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2025 Lando Norris McLaren McLaren
2024 Charles LcClerc Ferrari Ferrari
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull Red Bull Racing
2022 Sergio Perez Red Bull Red Bull Racing
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull Red Bull Racing
2019 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedese
2018 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Red Bull Racing
2017 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Ferrari
2016 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedese
2015 Nico Rosberg Mercedes Mercedese

❓ Monaco Grand Prix betting FAQs

Who is favored to win the Monaco Grand Prix?

Charles Leclerc enters the Monaco Grand Prix as the betting favorite after strong form and a proven track record on the streets of Monte Carlo.

When and where is the Monaco Grand Prix?

The Monaco Grand Prix takes place on Sunday, June 7, 2026, at the Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo.

How can I watch the Monaco Grand Prix?

Fans can watch the Monaco Grand Prix on ESPN in the United States, while F1 TV provides streaming coverage in supported regions.

Who won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2025?

Lando Norris claimed victory at the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix, earning his first career win in Monaco.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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