The celebrations can continue for Mercedes this weekend, and the team's continued motivation to earn another crown this season factors into my Sao Paulo Grand Prix prediction.
Kimi Antonelli just became the youngest ever to clinch the F1 drivers' championship after doing so with his third-place finish in the Mexico City Grand Prix. But more work lies ahead for Antonelli and Mercedes, as the team can secure the constructors' title on Sunday, Nov. 8 in Brazil.
However, the Formula One odds show that a blazing Max Verstappen could keep posing a significant hurdle.
📊 Sao Paulo Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
59% |
 Max Verstappen |
57% |
 Charles Leclerc |
39% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
39% |
 Lando Norris |
39% |
| Isack Hadjar |
13% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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🏎️ Sao Paulo Grand Prix favorites
Kimi Antonelli (59%)
Mercedes holds a commanding 126-point lead over Ferrari in the constructors' standings, and the Silver Arrows need to outscore their closest competitor by three points in Sao Paulo.
That alone is plenty of motivation for now to keep Antonelli from cruising to the finish line this season. His dominance is becoming routine, which is remarkable from a young star who just turned 20 years old in late August. He's taken up a top-tier residency while tallying podium finishes during nine of his last 10 races, a stretch that includes four wins.
Now he heads to Sao Paulo and Interlagos, a track with intense speeds and elevation changes, playing to the strengths of the Mercedes power unit. Antonelli finished second there last year.
Max Verstappen (57%)
Mad Max is the only driver whose own sizzling streak recently is surpassing Antonelli's temperature. Red Bull endured some early-season struggles that removed Verstappen from truly challenging Antonelli in the drivers' standings. But he's now been on the top two steps of the podium in five of the past six races, including three wins.
Verstappen is rather familiar with success at Interlagos too after winning two of the past three events. He's thriving in general, but especially at tracks with flowing turns. That was true last week when he won in Mexico City, and it's certainly true again now at Interlagos with its Senna S.
🧠 How I'm picking the Sao Paulo Grand Prix
There are two clear gargantuan favorites in Antonelli and Verstappen, and they've both been battling atop the grid for some time. But Interlagos shares plenty of the same primary characteristics with the Autodromo Hermanos Rodríguez, where Ferrari shined last week despite some team squabbling. Lewis Hamilton finished just 0.8 seconds back of Verstappen, and he's far more appealing at 39% now heading into the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
Another significant factor to consider is the unknown from nature. Weather can often play a race-altering role in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix due to where the track is situated. It's not uncommon even for showers to close in fast over one part of the track, while other sections remain dry. That's a massive challenge, but an atmosphere in which we've seen the experienced Hamilton rise up in before.
🏆 Previous Sao Paulo Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | George Russell |
Mercedes |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2019 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel |
Ferrari |
❓ Sao Paulo Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Sao Paulo Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli leads at 59%, ahead of Max Verstappen at 57%, and three others are at 39%.
When and where is the Sao Paulo Grand Prix?
The Sao Paulo Grand Prix takes place at the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace (Interlagos) in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026, starting at 12 p.m. ET.
How can I watch the Sao Paulo Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the Sao Paulo Grand Prix in 2025?
Lando Norris won the 2025 Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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