Perhaps it’s fitting that the pole came down to the most decorated Hungarian Grand Prix racer of all time and the current most dominant driver on that track in recent years.
In the end, it was McLaren’s Lando Norris edging out Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton for the front of the grid at the Hungaroring.
Hamilton’s teammate Charles Leclerc – who’s won and taken second in the last two races – will start third, while points leader Kimi Antonelli will start in fourth.
Antonelli will be looking for his second consecutive victory after taking Belgium last week.
Continue reading for the latest Formula 1 odds free Hungarian Grand Prix predictions on July 26.
🏁 Hungarian Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charles Leclerc |
Win outright | July 23 | +456 | 18% |
 Lando Norris |
Podium finish | July 23 | +213 | 32% |
📊 Hungarian Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
+156 | 39% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+426 | 19% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+456 | 18% |
| George Russell |
+733 | 12% |
 Max Verstappen |
+1011 | 9% |
| Lando Norris |
+1150 | 8% |
| Oscar Piastri |
+2400 | 4% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ Hungarian Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Charles Leclerc to win (+300)
Lando Norris is the defending champ in Budapest and hasn’t finished worse than second in three straight races there, but the last five pole sitters have failed to claim the checkered flag.
Lewis Hamilton has dominated in Hungary, with eight career wins, but the last time he won was in 2020, driving the Mercedes.
And that’s why I think Charles Leclerc has a leg up. He’s among the hottest drivers right now, and he should navigate better Sunday after last year’s rough experience: winning the pole but staggering to fourth.
It’s why the books have given him the second-best odds to take, sending Hamilton to a distant fourth, behind Antonelli.
If Leclerc can navigate those corners better than the field, he’s in primo position to grab his second race of the year.
Prop pick: Oscar Piastri podium finish (+456)
Here’s hoping you got a Norris podium finish bet in before qualifying, as those juicy +213 odds have shriveled to -426.
If we’re looking at straight value, McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is worth targeting.
He hasn’t touched the podium since Miami in May, but starting fifth at the Hungaroring is his best spot since fourth at Montreal.
Piastri won here in 2024 and was runner-up to his teammate last season. Clearly, the McLaren upgrades coming into Budapest have worked.
He’ll need to work through at least two of the three best drivers currently going in F1 to stand at the podium, but the odds are tantalizing enough for a sprinkle.
🧠 How I'm picking the Hungarian Grand Prix
Budapest might be the only place where winning the pole might not necessarily be advantageous.
Each of the last five races have seen the pole sitter fail to take home the checkered flag. Norris won from the three-spot last year, while Oscar Piastri in 2024 and Max Verstappen in 2023 each started second and rode to victory.
Verstappen got his first Hungarian the year prior, weaving through the field from a 10th-pace start to take it all in 2022, while Esteban Ocon won it all after starting in eighth in 2021.
With that information, I’ll be sprinkling some around on the others behind Antonelli, who is the circuit’s current front-runner and seeking his seventh pole of the season.
If you’re looking for experience, look no further than Lewis Hamilton. Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate has cooled lately, finishing off the podium in two of his last three starts, but he’s won in Hungary eight times (though not since 2020).
Verstappen has found the podium twice in his last three races, and is always worth considering when there is a distinct technical aspect in maneuvering around a track.
This has been a McLaren stronghold, with Norris and Piastri finishing 1-2 in back-to-back years. While the three-peat is not a strong possibility, one of them finding the podium might be.
📋 Hungarian Grand Prix favorites
Once again, Kimi Antonelli is favored ahead of qualifying, sitting at +156. Behind him are the Ferrari pair of Lewis Hamilton (+426) and Charles Leclerc (+455), who almost have identical odds of winning.
Last year's winner, Lando Norris, currently has an 8% chance of going back-to-back in Hungary. He would become the first repeat winner here since Max Verstappen finished first in 2022 and 2023.
🏆 Previous Hungarian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull Racing |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 |  Esteban Ocon |
Alpine |
❓ Hungarian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Hungarian Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is favored at +156 to win the Hungarian Grand Prix ahead of qualifiers.
When and where is the Hungarian Grand Prix?
The 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix takes place at the Hungaroring racetrack in Mogyorod, Hungary, on Sunday, July 26.
How can I watch the Hungarian Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 racing.
Who won the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2025?
McLaren's Oscar Piastri won the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2025.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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