One of the crown jewels of the Formula 1 calendar will take place this weekend, as the sport descends on historic Silverstone for the British Grand Prix.
On the heels of yet another win in Canada, Red Bull's Max Verstappen is the British Grand Prix odds favorite. Will he take the checkered flag in Silverstone, a year on from his dramatic and inciting opening-lap crash amid a battle with Lewis Hamilton?
We answer that question and more in our British Grand Prix picks and predictions, with lights out on July 3.
British Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 7/2/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Pre-qualifying predictions
Picks made on 7/1/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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British Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)
First-lap leader and race winner pick
After entering qualifying at +120 to win the race, Max Verstappen is now a -150 favorite despite his second-place spot on the grid ahead of race day.
If you missed the boat on getting Verstappen at plus money to win, you can still find value in the championship leader — by taking him to lead after the first lap and go on to win the race.
While Verstappen will have work to do in order for this to hit, with Ferrari's Carlos Sainz Jr. starting first, he does have prior experience doing just this at Silverstone. Last year, Verstappen began the sprint race here from second, behind Lewis Hamilton, but got the better of him off the line and went on to win comfortably.
Verstappen is among the best — and most aggressive — drivers off the start. Even this year, Verstappen overtook Sainz in second from third at the first corner in Miami and went on to win. And, not for nothing, this is Sainz's first-career pole position, so his ability to handle that pressure is an unknown.
Verstappen will position his car toward the inside from his starting spot and force Sainz to get the better jump or else the Spaniard will have to slide in behind him on the racing line. Should Sainz retain the lead into the first corner, the opening lap at Silverstone doesn't lack overtaking opportunities, as evidenced by Verstappen and Hamilton's epic and short-lived opening-lap fight last year.
At -150, taking Verstappen to win outright is still worthwhile, but he'll have an excellent chance to take the lead on the first lap and deliver great value as the rightful favorite to win.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Leader after first lap and race win (+175 at bet365)
Top-6 finish pick
Despite qualifying eighth, I like Mercedes' George Russell to finish in the Top 6 during the race. However, at -163, it makes more sense to fade McLaren's Lando Norris (starting sixth) at -120 to finish outside the Top 6 — with the assumption those six spots will be occupied by Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes.
Norris has had a strong weekend, finishing in the Top 8 of both full practice sessions (FP1 was effectively rained out) and Q2, while posting the ninth-quickest time in Q1. However, on merit, it's difficult to peg his pace at Silverstone in the Top 6, especially in comparison to Russell, who's likely to be his main competitor for a Top-6 finish.
Russell posted quicker times in FP3, Q1, and Q2, with Mercedes messing up its Q3 strategy. A decision to have the drivers run a cool-down lap hurt both Russell and Hamilton (on a wet-but-drying track, the later you can run the better, with the heat from the tires improving the track with every passing minute).
With clear conditions forecast for race day, the superior pace of Russell and Mercedes should show up and give Russell a 10th straight Top-6 finish — and keep Norris out of the Top 6 as a result.
Pick: Lando Norris - No Top-6 finish (-120 at bet365)
British GP predictions (pre-qualifying)
Fastest qualifier pick
At the Canadian Grand Prix, Ferrari's Charles Leclerc didn't start on the front row of the grid for the first time this season — only because he took a grid penalty that dropped him to the back and rendered qualifying more or less needless.
In a typical race weekend, Leclerc should be expected to occupy one of the front-row spots, as the Monegasque driver has been the clear-best single-lap driver on the grid this season. In nine Grand Prix, Leclerc has taken six pole positions (and had a run of four-straight ended in Canada) and recorded three fastest laps to go along with his pair of race wins.
With the high-speed nature of Silverstone and the length of the circuit, Leclerc's chance at a win will likely come undone due to the race pace of his title rival. However, in qualifying, Leclerc's ability to put together a flawless lap will shine.
Ferrari's capability of competing with Red Bull's pace at Silverstone showed through in FP2, with Leclerc's teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. going fastest overall. Leclerc finished the session with the fifth-quickest time but had a noticeable snap in the famous high-speed combination of corners, Maggotts and Becketts.
In a clean lap, Leclerc very well could've topped the session on Friday. We'll see that lap delivered on Saturday, with Leclerc taking his seventh pole position of the season.
Pick: Charles Leclerc - Fastest qualifier (-110 at bet365)
Race winner pick
We mentioned Leclerc's chance at a win is likely to be spoiled by his title rival, and that's why we're backing Max Verstappen to win here. And, really, it's quite simple: Verstappen is the grid's best driver and Red Bull has produced the best car this season.
Verstappen, after early-season reliability issues, has won five of the last six races and six of nine overall. He is a massive -600 favorite to win the Drivers' Championship, and that's as much a reflection of his talent and 46-point lead as it is the car Red Bull has produced this season.
Though both Ferrari and Mercedes should be expected to improve over the season's second half, Red Bull looks to be as dominant this season as Mercedes was over most of the last decade. It has already built up a 76-point lead in the Constructors', despite four DNFs between its two drivers, and has won seven of nine races.
The defining feature of Red Bull's car this season is its phenomenal power, which has delivered a huge edge over the rest of the grid. That huge edge will be highly important at Silverstone, which is an extremely high-speed circuit.
Verstappen opened as a -110 favorite and has moved to +120 after FP1, which was effectively rained out, and FP2, in which he finished around 0.2 seconds back of Sainz. While competition at the front may be tougher this weekend, with Mercedes seemingly improved, we've still got no indication Verstappen is threatened here.
At +120, it's a no-brainer.
Pick: Max Verstappen - Race winner (+120 at bet365)
