We’re nine races into the Formula 1 season, and only two engines have found the checkered flag: Mercedes and Ferrari.
Unsurprisingly, those are the teams front and center in this week's Belgian Grand Prix odds, one of the most fun and challenging tracks on the F1 calendar.
Current points leader Kimi Antonelli (five wins) is the betting favorite at +150, while Mercedes teammate George Russell (two wins) slots in behind him at +335. However, I'm looking deeper into the Formula 1 odds for value.
I break down my favorite Belgian Grand Prix picks below.
🏁 Belgian Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lewis Hamilton |
To win | July 15 | +488 | 18% |
 Max Verstappen |
To podium | July 15 | +203 | 33% |
📊 Belgian Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
+156 | 39% |
| George Russell |
+335 | 23% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+488 | 17% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+669 | 13% |
| Max Verstappen |
+1329 | 7% |
 Lando Norris |
+4900 | 2% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ British Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Lewis Hamilton to win (+488)
I think it’s now safe to say that Lewis Hamilton is comfortable in his Ferrari digs, as evidenced by four podium finishes in his last five races, including a win in Spain.
He's won four times at Spa-Francorchamps — the longest track on the F1 circuit. The Ferrari has proven to be fast enough on a straight line to at least compete with Mercedes, but the elevation and work into the corners at high speed are where his experience matters and where he can separate from the pack.
The weather has been known to play a factor, too, so any sudden changes should be an advantage for Hamilton. Prior to qualifying, this is a nice number to sink into.
Prop pick: Max Verstappen to podium (+203)
It’s probably not easy for Max Verstappen to play such a small part in this blockbuster extravaganza of a season, but such is life when your engine just doesn’t run with the big boys.
Verstappen has had his moments, but they’ve been few and far between (just two podiums on the season). Still, Belgium’s rigorous course might be an equalizer, and if it’s down to driving, he can compete with anyone.
With three wins on this circuit from 2021-23, he knows how to get it done, especially if the track gets a little slick.
If rain plays a factor — there’s currently a 30% chance of it on race day — he should be in the mix for a podium.
🧠 How I'm picking the Belgian Grand Prix
There’s no denying that straight-line speed and efficiency are important at Spa-Francorchamps. That, of course, plays to the strengths of Mercedes, who bring the best vehicle to the course.
George Russell is currently the hotter of the two Mercedes men, as he’s claimed a win and two second-place finishes in the last three races — but he’s been beaten out by both Hamilton and Leclerc in Spain and Britain.
Antonelli has been in discovery mode since taking five straight checkered flags. He’s failed to finish two of the last three races. As much as Mercedes can dominate the straights, they might struggle when it gets into the corners.
Leclerc might be your guy, but wagering on him now is a little risky. Hamilton’s Ferrari teammate had just two podiums before winning the British Grand Prix, so watching him in qualifying is preferable to see if he can carry that momentum and show consistency in back-to-back races.
📋 Belgian Grand Prix favorites
Before qualifying, Kimi Antonelli is the +156 favorite to win the Belgian GP. His Mercedes teammate, George Russell, is the second choice at +335.
Ferrari's two-headed monster of Lewis Hamilton (+488) and Charles Leclerc (+669) are next in line, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen a distant fifth at +1233.
🏆 Previous British Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
❓ Belgian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Belgian Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is favored to win the Belgian GP.
When and where is the Belgian Grand Prix?
Spa-Francorchamps plays host to the Belgian GP on Sunday, July 19.
How can I watch the Belgian Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 racing.
Who won the Belgian Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri won the Belgian GP last season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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