Kimi Antonelli is back in a familiar spot: at the front of the pack.
But can the 19-year-old shake this recent funk – with two DNFs in the last three races – and take the checkered flag at the Belgian Grand Prix?
The Mercedes man captured the pole at Spa-Francorchamps, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen starting alongside him on the front row.
I break down my favorite Belgian Grand Prix picks below.
🏁 Belgian Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Verstappen |
To win | July 18 | +433 | 19% |
 Charles Leclerc |
Podium finish | July 18 | +156 | 39% |
📊 Belgian Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
-194 | 66% |
| Max Verstappen |
+369 | 21% |
| George Russell |
+1150 | 8% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+1983 | 4.8% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+2400 | 4% |
 Lando Norris |
+4248 | 2% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ British Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Max Verstappen to win (+443)
Kimi Antonelli has been pretty good from the front of the grid this season, with four wins starting from the pole.
However, he's coming off a DNF at the British Grand Prix, the first time this season he's failed to win a race from the top position.
The inconsistency of his Mercedes over the past three races (two DNFs sandwiching a third-place finish) makes Max Verstappen a value pick Sunday.
The three-time winner at Belgium might not have the fastest car, but the length of the track and the work needed to maneuver the high-speed corners serve as an equalizer.
If it gets down to straight-up driving Sunday, Max Verstappen can compete with anyone.
Prop pick: Charles Leclerc Podium Finish (+156)
It wasn't Ferrari's day in qualifying, with Charles Leclerc finishing in fifth, with teammate Lewis Hamilton in sixth.
Lando Norris' penalty is a big boost here, leaving Leclerc – who won the British Grand Prix last race – needing to move up just one spot, and currently getting +156 odds to find the podium.
It's not out of the question: the Ferrari engine is on the level as Mercedes', so if he can make up ground in straight-line racing and manage the high-energy corners in the middle sector, I like his chances.
🧠 How I'm picking the Belgian Grand Prix
There’s no denying that straight-line speed and efficiency are important at Spa-Francorchamps. That, of course, plays to the strengths of Mercedes, who bring the best vehicle to the course.
George Russell is currently the hotter of the two Mercedes men, as he’s claimed a win and two second-place finishes in the last three races — but he’s been beaten out by both Hamilton and Leclerc in Spain and Britain.
Antonelli has been in discovery mode since taking five straight checkered flags. He’s failed to finish two of the last three races. As much as Mercedes can dominate the straights, they might struggle when it gets into the corners.
Leclerc might be your guy, but wagering on him now is a little risky. Hamilton’s Ferrari teammate had just two podiums before winning the British Grand Prix, so watching him in qualifying is preferable to see if he can carry that momentum and show consistency in back-to-back races.
📋 Belgian Grand Prix favorites
Before qualifying, Kimi Antonelli is the +156 favorite to win the Belgian GP. His Mercedes teammate, George Russell, is the second choice at +335.
Ferrari's two-headed monster of Lewis Hamilton (+488) and Charles Leclerc (+669) are next in line, with Red Bull's Max Verstappen a distant fifth at +1233.
🏆 Previous British Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
❓ Belgian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Belgian Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is favored to win the Belgian GP.
When and where is the Belgian Grand Prix?
Spa-Francorchamps plays host to the Belgian GP on Sunday, July 19.
How can I watch the Belgian Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 racing.
Who won the Belgian Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri won the Belgian GP last season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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