Summer break is over for F1 drivers, and the pursuit of points leader Kimi Antonelli resumes with this week’s Dutch Grand Prix.
It's no surprise that he’s the favorite to win his seventh race of the year in just his 12th start at +223 Formula 1 odds.
Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton has the next best odds at +456, while McLaren’s Lando Norris, the last man to win a race before the two-week break, checks in third at +488.
Hometown hero Max Verstappen, who's been a fixture at Zandvoort, is at +1011 as he looks for his first win of 2026.
Read below for my Dutch Grand Prix predictions and free picks for Sunday, Aug. 23.
🏁 Dutch Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date |  |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lewis Hamilton |
Win | Aug. 20 | +456 | 18% |
 Max Verstappen |
Podium finish | Aug. 20 | +203 | 33% |
📊 Dutch Grand Prix odds
| Driver | |
Win probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
+223 | 31% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+456 | 18% |
 Lando Norris |
+488 | 17% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+733 | 12% |
| George Russell |
+900 | 10% |
| Max Verstappen |
+1011 | 9% |
| Oscar Piastri |
+1567 | 6% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best F1 betting sites.
🏎️ Dutch Grand Prix picks
Race pick: Hamilton to win (+456)
The key to taking the Dutch Grand Prix has been to secure the pole, as each of the last five winners here have been at the front of the pack.
While Antonelli has grabbed that spot five times already, Mother Nature might hamper his plans for a sixth. Rain is expected Saturday at Circuit Zandvoort, leaving the door open for the better drivers in slick conditions to take the top spot.
Verstappen is widely considered the best modern-day driver in rain, but it’s clear the Red Bull just isn’t the best car on the circuit this year.
Instead, we’ll lean on one of the other elite drivers in the wet in Lewis Hamilton, who just happens to sit second in the driver’s standings.
Yes, he’s struggled just a bit since winning in Barcelona, with just a single podium finish in four starts. But his experience can help outmaneuver the field for the pole, and get a second checkered flag this season.
Prop pick: Verstappen Podium Finish (+203)
Winning outright might not be in the cards, but taking a flier on Verstappen on the podium at very nice +203 odds is a must.
Verstappen has not missed a podium in the Netherlands in his last five races, winning three straight years from 2021 to 2023, and finishing runner-up each of the last two years to the McLaren guys.
After a brutal start to the year, he has come on, standing on the podium for three of his last four races, including a second-place finish last time out in Hungary.
He should be plenty motivated to race well in front of his adoring fans.
🧠 How I'm picking the Dutch Grand Prix
This is one of the most challenging tracks on tour, with banked turns steeper than Indianapolis Motor Speedway, which allows for higher cornering speeds.
That’s why Verstappen is so successful here, as he is relentless through corners. But so is Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, and he’s found the podium here in both 2022 and 2024.
He’s got +144 odds to finish Top 3 again and is worth consideration.
In terms of the car best built to handle the Dutch Grand Prix, the McLaren is dominant in medium and high-speed cornering ability. Perhaps that’s why Lando Norris won here in 2024, and teammate Oscar Piastri took it last year, ahead of Verstappen.
But similar to how I view Verstappen, the McLarens have been inconsistent this year.
While Norris just won Hungary, it’s only his third podium of the season, while Piastri has just two podiums in 2026, none since May 3 in Miami.
📋 Dutch Grand Prix favorites
Kimi Antonelli has won six of 11 races this season, and he's a clear-cut +223 choice to grab another victory on Sunday.
Lewis Hamilton (+488) and Lando Norris (+525) make up the next tier of contenders. Each driver has a win this year, with Norris erasing his goose-egg last time out in Hungary.
Charles Leclerc, George Russell, and Max Verstappen round out the choices at 10% or above.
🏆 Previous Dutch Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren |
| 2024 | Lando Norris | McLaren |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
❓ Dutch Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Dutch Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is the Dutch Grand Prix favorite.
When and where is the Dutch Grand Prix?
The Dutch Grand Prix will be held at Circuit Zandvoort at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday, August 23.
How can I watch the Dutch Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1.
Who won the Dutch Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) is the defending champ of this race.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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