The first Monday of May is always one of the biggest on the fashion world’s calendar. Now it’s come and gone, we can reveal which famous faces were photographed on the steps of the Metropolitan Museum of Art for the Met Gala.
The night absolutely delivered in terms of those wearable sculptures and archive revivals, as we knew it would with a theme like “Fashion is Art.” But were Kalshi traders right with their Met Gala guest list predictions?
For weeks leading up to May 4, traders on platforms like Kalshi put real money behind the likelihood of celebrity appearances. So now it’s time to see whether the collective wisdom of the market was spot on, or whether those long shot picks meant some traders lost out.
Key Takeaways:
- As predicted, Beyoncé, Nicole Kidman and Venus Williams joined Anna Wintour to lead the evening. Beyoncé’s return after a decade was the night's big moment.
- The "Fashion is Art" dress code brought back several looks from the archives, with pieces originally seen in the 1990s being brought back for the occasion.
- Most ‘Yes’ contracts trading above 90¢ resolved as expected, but a few notable absences shook up the board.
Here’s what we knew before the event: Beyoncé, Nicole Kidman and Venus Williams had been announced as co-chairs of the 2026 Met Gala, joining former editor-in-chief of Vogue Anna Wintour.
The dress code for the Met Gala 2026 was also revealed. This year, it was "Fashion is Art," in celebration of the Costume Institute’s Spring exhibition on Costume Art.
Prediction markets priced the likelihood of appearances from Hollywood’s elite, with prices becoming ever more volatile as the night approached. Here’s how the markets resolved.
Use Promo Code COVERS
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
The Met Gala ‘Yes’ List: 2026 Odds and Results
On Kalshi’s prediction markets, a ‘Yes’ contract price reflects the percentage probability of attendance. Here’s how the A-list was trading ahead of the event.
| Celebrity | Closing Market Odds | Final Result | Market Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Jenner | 96¢ (96%) | 'Yes' | High - The ultimate safe bet stayed true. |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 95¢ (95%) | 'Yes' | High - Host Committee members were near-locks. |
| Emma Chamberlain | 94¢ (94%) | 'Yes' | High - Resumed interviewing duties for Vogue. |
| Doja Cat | 92¢ (92%) | 'Yes' | High - Delivered a conceptual sculpture look. |
| Zendaya | 8¢ (8%) | 'No' | High - Price dropped at the beginning of May, she didn't appear. |
| Chappell Roan | 46¢ (46%) | 'No' | Correct - Chappell Roan was a notable absence. |
| Frank Ocean | 22¢ (22%) | 'No’ | Correct - 'No' traders (59¢) took the payout. |
| Hailey Bieber | 82¢ (82%) | 'Yes' | High - Appeared on the steps in a 24-karat gold bodice. |
Use Promo Code COVERS
Met Gala Prediction Market Value Picks: Where was the Money Moving?
Finding value in Met Gala markets is about more than just choosing the most likely attendees. To secure the best value picks at any one time, you need to take advantage of the available information to identify mispriced contracts on the board.
Instagram holds a wealth of information that can be used to determine the likelihood of different stars attending, from stories that might give a clue as to their whereabouts to sneak peeks behind the scenes that show us what their schedules really look like.
However, to understand the real edge we really need to be able to spot any stars whose professional obligations make attendance a near-mathematical certainty or an impossibility.
Published information on filming commitments is also invaluable in determining the real chance of different actors attending at event like this, as are brand contracts for other famous faces on the board.
For example, we knew ahead of time that Saint Laurent was the main fashion sponsor this year, and we also knew Anthony Vaccarello and Zoë Kravitz (partner of Harry Styles) were co-chairing the Host Committee. That’s why their 90¢+ contracts were essentially locks.
But there were other names who had a similar likelihood of attending that weren't priced nearly as high for traders who acted quickly. Here are a few of the value picks we found ahead of the Met Gala 2026.
Frank Ocean | ‘Yes’ 22¢
Resolved: ‘No’ ❌
Frank Ocean was the high-risk, high-reward pick. Ocean is well known for his artistic approach, so many commentators believed he would find this year’s theme too tempting to miss. He looked like a steal for those betting on a surprise appearance, but ultimately this was a win for those who picked ‘No’.
Hailey Bieber | ‘Yes’ 82¢
Resolved: ‘Yes’ ✅
At 82¢ for 'Yes' the market was reasonably confident that Hailey Bieber would appear at this year’s event. But her 'Yes' price was always far lower than some of the event’s bigger names, considering the realistic chance that she would attend.
Met Gala Locks: Kendall Jenner, Sabrina Carpenter, Doja Cat
Resolved: ‘Yes’ ✅
Previously standing at 96% probability, Kendall Jenner had been viewed as a near certainty by traders. And for good reason; she rarely misses a Met Gala. In fact she’s appeared at almost every single one since her debut back in 2014.
Sabrina Carpenter (95¢) and Doja Cat (92¢) were also trading near the ceiling, because they were been publicly named as part of the 2026 Host Committee by Anna Wintour.
In prediction markets, when a celebrity is officially tied to the hosting duties, ‘Yes’ contracts become a race to 99¢. It was highly unlikely that they wouldn’t attend, given their connection to the event.
Celebrity PR Specialist: The 2026 Met Gala will be “a full cultural moment”
Celebrity PR Specialist Kayley Cornelius breaks down the strategy behind NYC’s most anticipated event, exclusively for Covers.
Beyoncé’s return as co-chair for the first time in a decade signals a gravitational shift, argues Kayley Cornelius. “Beyoncé stepping back in as co-chair for the Met Gala for the first time in a decade is set to completely shift the energy of the night. When someone of her status is involved, it instantly raises the bar and turns the event into a must attend moment.”
“Expect to see a wave of A listers returning to the carpet, particularly those within her inner circle. Names like Rihanna, Jay-Z and even Adele could easily make a comeback, alongside major fashion heavyweights.”
“With Beyoncé involved, this is no longer just about fashion, it becomes a full cultural moment, and that is what pulls in the biggest names.”
With Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez serving as Honorary Chairs, commentators have begun to question whether we could see more Silicon Valley guests on the list this year. “Do not be surprised if the guest list starts to look a little more power player heavy this year,” says Cornelius.
“Someone like Elon Musk would not feel out of place, and it reflects how influence is shifting. It is no longer just about Hollywood, it is about who is shaping global culture, and that now includes the tech world.”
The 2026 theme gives attendees the scope to be as creative as they dare, and Cornelius expects that we’ll see a split between performance art and personal branding.
“You can expect stars like Lady Gaga to fully embrace the brief and turn the carpet into a full performance moment—the kind of looks that dominate headlines and go viral in minutes.”
“On the flip side, some will play it safe, sticking to what works for their personal brand. They will look incredible, but it’s the bold, unexpected moments people will be talking about the next day.”
All eyes will be on Zendaya, but it won’t just be about what she’s wearing this year. Everyone will be looking out for signs of a potential personal milestone, Cornelius tells us.
“After subtly hinting at her engagement at the Golden Globes in 2025, the Met Gala could be the perfect place for her to finally address the rumors. If she steps onto the carpet, all eyes will be on one thing: whether she is wearing a wedding ring.”
While many fight for an invite, Cornelius points out that for regulars like Kim Kardashian, Gigi Hadid, and Bella Hadid, absence can be a calculated PR move.
“Not showing up can be just as powerful as making an entrance. In 2026, it would not be surprising to see at least one of these names sit it out, especially if the theme does not quite align with their current image.”
With Venus Williams co-chairing, this could be the year of the athlete, says Cornelius. “We have already seen the rise of sports stars in the fashion world, with Lewis Hamilton leading the way. But there is also a new wave coming through. Alysa Liu is one to watch after her breakout success at the Winter Olympics.”
As for debuts? Keep an eye on the rising stars. “Jessie Buckley is a strong contender for a debut as she rises as a Hollywood leading name, and Maura Higgins could make her first appearance following her successful Traitors run in the US. These names keep the Met feeling fresh.”
Pop Culture Historian: Met Gala is a “lightning rod for social commentary”
To gain a betting understanding of how the Met Gala has changed in recent years, we spoke to Marie Nicola, pop culture historian at Past//Forward, who explained that the 2026 honorary chairs represent a return to "patrician philanthropy.”
While some have suggested that the inclusion of Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez could be the beginnings of a Silicon Valley takeover, Marie Nicola argues it is actually an attempt to buy back an old system.
"Lauren Sánchez is performing classic aspirations. She's someone trying to become a socialite, not someone trying to replace a socialite in this new model," Marie Nicola said. "This is closer to a failed attempt to transition the event away from the celebrity era and back to the patrician philanthropy era."
Perhaps the most talked-about prediction for 2026 is the impact of Beyoncé’s return as Co-Chair. After a ten-year absence, her presence is viewed by Marie Nicola as a strategic move by Anna Wintour to maintain the event's prestige.
“It feels like Beyoncé's involvement is Anna Wintour enlisting the most culturally unimpeachable person available to divert attention away from the scandal [of the Bezos/Sánchez involvement]," says Marie Nicola.
According to Marie Nicola, the smart money is on Beyoncé making a statement that diverts attention towards her from the moment she arrives.
"I'm wondering if she's going to come in wearing a Black American or a Latino designer, which would be the boldest and most resonant choice. She cannot return to another European House—that would be redundant and signal that she isn't the cultural tastemaker we all thought she was.”
“Beyoncé is very likely to deliver unless internal politics prevent her from going full throttle. Even so, this return is ten years in the making. It would be very unlikely that she doesn't step into something so memorable that it makes the Bezoses' presence irrelevant by the sheer force of her celebrity aura.”
When it comes to the "Fashion is Art" dress code, Marie Nicola predicts guests will split into three camps: the literal (wearable sculptures), the conceptual (new construction), and the archival.
While archival pieces like Kim Kardashian’s Marilyn Monroe moment are "atypical," the 2026 theme could make it more likely that other celebs follow suit.
As for the famous faces on the board that Marie Nicola feels should be a lock, the pop culture historian suggests focusing on established icons over first-timers.
So, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the prices of Zendaya, who is “at the precise career inflection point where she is likely to deliver,” as well as Rihanna, who has “historically been more willing to take genuine aesthetic risks than almost anyone.”
Marie Nicola also highlighted both Doechii and Teyana Taylor for their “aesthetic intelligence," and ability to “carry a political and cultural point of view to the carpet.”
How to Use Prediction Markets to Bet on the Met Gala
Betting on the Met Gala is quite different to betting on sports, especially if you opt for a prediction market rather than a sportsbook to do so. While they might look similar on the surface, prediction markets like Kalshi operate on a fundamentally different engine.
Here is why prediction markets are a different beast:
You trade against people, not the house
If you use a traditional sportsbook, you bet against a bookie. They set the odds, and if you win, they lose. To ensure they always come out on top, they build in a vig (a hidden fee) that tilts the math in their favor.
In a prediction market, you are trading against other fashion fans and industry experts. If you buy a ‘Yes’ share for Zendaya, you are buying it from someone else. The platform has no vested interest in the winner, it just facilitates the trade and typically charges a transparent transaction fee.
The price is the probability
Sportsbook odds can be confusing (e.g., +140 or -200). Prediction markets use a simple $0.01 to $0.99 scale.
If a share for Rihanna to attend is trading at 89¢, the market is saying there is an 89% chance she shows up. There’s no need to convert complex fractions; you can see exactly what the collective wisdom of the crowd thinks in real-time
You can cash out anytime
When you place a bet at a sportsbook, your money is usually locked until the event ends. But in a prediction market, your shares are like stocks.
Imagine you buy ‘Yes’ shares for Frank Ocean at 40¢. Suddenly, a grainy photo of him at a NYC airport starts circulating on Insta. Traders react, and the price jumps to 75¢. If that happens, you don’t have to wait for the red carpet appearance to see if you’re a winner. You can choose to sell your shares right then and lock in your profit.
Information discovery vs. entertainment
Sportsbooks are built for entertainment, while prediction markets present much greater opportunities for traders to capitalize on any information they happen to discover. And because people are putting real money behind their prediction market picks, the price often reflects the most accurate prediction possible.
Making the most of the best value picks available on a market like this requires a mix of social media sleuthing and a good understanding the source agencies listed in the Kalshi rules.
- Source Verification: On Kalshi, attendance is verified by major outlets like Vogue, The New York Times, or Associated Press. Even a brief appearance counts.
- The Pre-Gala Flip: Many traders buy ‘Yes’ contracts for celebrities rumored to be attending (based on leaked flight manifests or dress fittings) and sell them for a profit hours before the red carpet begins.
- Understanding ‘No’ Strength: If a celebrity is confirmed to be filming in Europe on May 4, their ‘No’ price will surge toward 99¢. So traders will often look for celebrities with quiet schedules to find their ‘Yes’ entries.
The 2026 Met Gala Market FAQs
The official dress code is "Fashion is Art," which is in keeping with previous themes that tend to be open to interpretation. It explores the relationship between the human form and the history of dress, to celebrate the spring exhibition from the Costume Institute at the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
The co-chairs are Beyoncé, Nicole Kidman, Venus Williams and Anna Wintour. Notably, Beyoncé is returning to the Met steps for the first time in a decade.
Yes. According to Kalshi rules, if a celebrity is reported present by a source agency, even for a partial attendance, the market resolves to ‘Yes.’
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez are the main sponsors for the 2026 gala and serve as honorary chairs, making their attendance a near 100% certainty in the markets.
