The 2026 awards season is heating up, and if the prediction markets are any indication, it might be time for Paul Thomas Anderson to start clearing a space on his mantle.
On Kalshi, the Best Picture market has begun to solidify around a clear frontrunner: One Battle After Another.
However, in a year defined by record-breaking nomination hauls (we’re looking at you here, Sinners) and genre-bending blockbusters that defy categorization, the current longshots are still worthy of consideration.
Key Takeaways:
- Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is dominating with a massive win probability on Kalshi.
- Despite a record-breaking 16 nominations, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners remains a secondary challenger.
- Experts suggest the race is effectively locking in, with long shots like Hamnet and Marty Supreme now below 10%.
One Battle After Another and Sinners both look like likely winners, given the numbers of nominations received by each film (13 and 16 respectively), but PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt has urged caution to those using this alone as a determining factor in their Best Picture picks.
As past years have demonstrated, “overwhelming nominations don’t always translate into a clean sweep,” said Carratt. And as history reminds us, “volume can also breed skepticism.”
Don’t forget what happened with ‘La La Land’ 10 years ago, that’s all we’re saying!
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Best Picture prediction market movement
Here is the current state of the Best Picture board:
| Film | ‘Yes’ Price (Chance) | ‘No’ Price |
|---|---|---|
| 🧨 One Battle After Another | 75¢ (75%) | 26¢ |
| 🧛♂️ Sinners | 16¢ (16%) | 85¢ |
| 🕯️ Hamnet | 8¢ (8%) | 92¢ |
| 🏓 Marty Supreme | 3¢ (3%) | 98¢ |
🧨 The Frontrunner: One Battle After Another | ‘Yes’ 75¢
Paul Thomas Anderson’s action-thriller/political drama hybrid has been dominant in this market ever since its Golden Globes success.
At 75¢, the market now views One Battle After Another win as a three-to-one favorite. There’s a powerful tailwind in the form of the overdue narrative we’ve seen around Paul Thomas Anderson (always the bridesmaid, never the bride!) and commentators expect this to be his year.
Given the current ‘Yes’ price for this film, and the fact that its only going up, chances for a good return betting on the favorite are diminishing.
If we see an upset at the Actor Awards and the price of One Battle After Another drops as a result, that’ll be the time to snap up those ‘Yes’ contracts.
🧛♂️ The Challenger: Sinners (16¢)
Sinners goes into this year’s Academy Awards with a record-breaking 16 nominations. The sheer number of nominations given to the film hit the headlines back in January, leading many to question whether this could be the year that a certain vampire epic steals the show.
A 16¢ price tag implies only a 16% chance of victory in the Best Picture category. But that creates a bit of a discrepancy between the film’s success in terms of nominations, and it’s implied chance of a win.
Historically, the film with the most nominations has an advantage, but that isn’t always the case, and the market seems skeptical that the Academy is ready to give Best Picture to a film of this genre. It’s skepticism that could work to traders’ advantage, though.
Keep an eye on the Actor Awards to see how Sinners does there. Prices could shift quickly if things don’t go the way of One Battle After Another.
🕯️ The Dark Horse: Hamnet (8¢)
Chloé Zhao is looking for her second Best Picture win, and while Jessie Buckley is a near-lock for Best Actress (trading at 88¢ in the Best Actress market), the film itself is struggling to gain traction as a potential Best Picture winner.
Now trading at 8¢, Hamnet is being viewed as a prestige split. And by that, we mean the expectation is that Buckley will take the acting trophy, and the film will miss out on the Best Picture prize.
The thing that could work in Hamnet’s favor is a possible spectacle film vote split between One Battle and Sinners. This could be the ultimate Oscars value play if you believe a surprise is around the corner. It’s a daring move, but it could pay off.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS' and get a $10 trading bonus after you trade $10 on any other event contracts — including this game!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Expert: Record-breaking nominations could be double-edged sword for Sinners
We spoke to PR and entertainment expert Lynn Carratt to get her thoughts on the current disconnect between the volume of nods received by Sinners and its odds of winning Best Picture.
Describing the situation as a “double-edged sword,” for the vampire epic, Carratt explained “on one hand, it creates undeniable buzz.”
“Sixteen nominations is a huge achievement, it dominates headlines, travels globally, and positions the film as one of the most watched and talked-about releases of the year. But history reminds us that volume can also breed scepticism.”
“At a certain point, the narrative can shift from admiration to doubt. Voters may begin to question whether the praise is organic or the result of an overly polished campaign machine.”
It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen such an event, either. Let’s not forget “the cautionary tale,” of La La Land in 2016. Despite receiving 14 nominations that year, the film won just six statues (and was mistakenly announced as Best Picture, a prize it hadn’t actually won).
It just shows that “overwhelming nominations don’t always translate into a clean sweep,” said Carratt. And a film being over-celebrated in the run-up to the awards won’t always work in its favor.
Carratt explains that the best strategy in such a situation is to “humanise the story.”
“Shift the focus away from numbers and toward the people behind the project. Spotlight why the actors were drawn to their roles, the emotional risks they took, and the personal meaning embedded in the performances.”
“Emotional resonance matters, particularly when a film is perceived as being pushed too hard.”
In the Best Picture category, it’s often worth looking out for films that aren’t dominating the headlines over ones that are.
“The most effective campaigns don’t chase statistics, they highlight originality, first-time achievements, critical recognition and the cultural impact of the work itself.”
“It’s about what makes the film special, not how loudly it’s being celebrated,” says Carratt.
How to bet on Best Picture Oscars prediction markets
If you’re used to traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi will feel a bit different. The thing to remember is that Kalshi is not a bookie, it’s an exchange. Here’s how to navigate the Oscars prediction markets.
Prices are probabilities
On Kalshi, everything trades between 1¢ and 99¢. If you buy a ‘Yes’ contract for One Battle After Another at 75¢, you are essentially saying there is a better than 75% chance it wins.
If the movie wins, your contract pays out $1.00. Your profit would be 25¢ per contract ($1.00 - 75¢).
You can trade in real-time
Unlike a sportsbook where your bet is locked in once placed, Kalshi allows you to exit your position early.
If you buy Sinners at 16¢ and it wins a surprise precursor award, the price might jump to 40¢. You can sell your contracts right then and lock in a 24¢ profit per share without even waiting for the Oscar ceremony in March.
You can even bet ‘No’
One of the unique features of Kalshi is the ability to bet against an outcome. If you think One Battle After Another is overvalued at 75¢, you can buy the ‘No’ contract for 26¢. If any other movie wins Best Picture, your ‘No’ contract settles at $1.00, netting you a 74¢ profit.
It’s legal and regulated
Kalshi is US-regulated (CFTC), meaning it’s legal in most states and uses USD. You can fund your account via ACH, wire transfer or debit card. And unlike some social prediction sites, Kalshi is built for high-volume trading, so it allows for larger positions on major events like the Oscars.
Oscars Best Picture FAQs
Yes. Unlike many offshore betting sites, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It operates as a legal financial market for event contracts rather than a traditional gambling site.
One of the biggest perks of Kalshi is its accessibility. You can buy a single contract for as little as 1¢. There is no minimum bet like the $5 or $10 requirements often found at sportsbooks, making it perfect for casual fans.
Markets are settled based on the official results announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Kalshi uses verified primary sources to ensure the ‘Yes’ contract only pays out once the envelope is opened and the winner is confirmed on stage.
Absolutely. Kalshi hosts markets for all major categories, including Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director. Many traders hedge their Best Picture picks by trading in technical categories like Best Cinematography or Best Film Editing, which often serve as early indicators for the night’s big winner.
Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. If a film wins a major precursor award like a BAFTA or an Actor Award, more people will want to buy ‘Yes’ contracts, driving the price up. If a director makes a controversial statement or a film loses momentum, the price will drop.
Since Kalshi is a regulated U.S. financial institution, you can withdraw your funds directly to your bank account via ACH or wire transfer. Withdrawals are typically processed within 1–3 business days.
