If you thought predicting the winner of the Super Bowl was tense, try pricing a market based entirely on looks. The new market for People’s Sexiest Man Alive is now officially open, and that means only one thing: the time has come to place bets on our favorite Internet boyfriend of 2026.
Key Takeaways:
- Timothée Chalamet, who also looks likely to be named Best Actor at the Academy Awards in March, is the market favorite.
- Internet Daddy, Pedro Pascal is the ultimate value play for those betting against the runway model options.
- Most of the board is stuck in the 7¢ to 12¢ range, meaning one flattering paparazzi photo could send prices into a spin.
The scientific criteria used to establish the winner of such an accolade remain a fiercely guarded secret, known only to those at People Magazine.
However, Kalshi traders are analysing everything from a certain someone’s undeniable Kenergy, to the allure of the actor of the moment, in an effort to determine who has what it takes to triumph in this high-stakes beauty pageant.
Soon we’ll see who has the jawline to yield the highest returns. But until then, here’s the latest on a market we’ll be watching with much interest.
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Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive this year?
The Leading Men: Chalamet vs. Bad Bunny
It seems we can’t go five minutes without hearing about one of these two at the moment. (Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.)
Bad Bunny, who recently headlined the Super Bowl halftime show, and Chalamet, who is widely expected to sweep the current awards season for his role in Marty Supreme, are clear favorites in the race to be named Sexiest Man Alive.
Chalamet has the edge, but only just. At 22¢ and 15¢, both are far from a lock at this point, but so far they’re the only ones who have managed to break the 15¢ barrier.
The Challengers: Internet boyfriends assemble
Trailing slightly behind the two favourites are a group of men best known by their collective title: the Internet Boyfriends.
Pedro Pascal is now sitting at 14¢, closely followed by Ryan Gosling, whose 12¢ price seems surprisingly low considering the Kenergy factor.
Veteran winners also feature on the list. Could Chris Evans or Michael B. Jordan join the likes of Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Johnny Depp and Richard Gere and take the crown for a second time?
The Long Shots: Aesthetically pleasing value plays
Now, let’s take a good look at the longshots, because there are definitely some value plays worth considering in this really, really, ridiculously good-looking market.
First up we have the Kelce brothers, Travis and Jason, who are currently idling at 5¢ and 7¢ respectively.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis is of course set to marry Taylor Swift very soon, and we can’t see her heading down the aisle with someone who doesn’t have the facial symmetry to top this list.
Speaking of facial symmetry, there’s another good value play on the board in the form of Jimmy Garoppolo of the Los Angeles Rams. He’s also at 7¢, but we can’t see his ‘Yes’ price remaining that low for long.
Sexiest Man Alive Odds: Three value plays available now
Top payouts on a market like this will come from the overlooked characters on the list. Forget betting on the favorites, here are three of the best value plays to think about as you put together this very important portfolio.
Bad Bunny | 'Yes' at 15¢
Considering the meteoric rise of this performer over the past few years, he’s significantly undervalued at this price. He’s got global appeal, great fashion credentials and he’s one of the most talked about celebs of the moment. Currently, Bad Bunny is a steal at 15¢.
Pedro Pascal | 'Yes' at 14¢
Trading at just 14¢, Pascal also has what it takes to make it to the cover. He’s appeared in two of the world’s biggest franchises (The Last of Us and The Mandalorian) and he’s got the kind of universal likability that’s hard to find. If talk turns to his next project soon, his ‘Yes’ price could rocket.
Ryan Gosling | 'Yes' at 12¢
At 12¢, Gosling’s ‘Yes’ price is low for someone with a permanent place on the A List. He’s always a favorite with People Magazine editors, and he’s got that continued heartthrob narrative the decision makers will be looking for. The market may be focusing its attention on relative newcomers, but we can definitely see Gosling gracing that cover.
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How It Works: Trading the Sexiest Man Alive on Kalshi
If you're used to traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi might feel like you’ve ventured onto a different planet at first. But it’s simple once you get the hang of it. The key thing to remember is that with Kalshi, you’re trading assets rather than just placing a bet.
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, and it treats markets like this in exactly the same ways as it treats interest rates or oil prices. Here’s how it works.
The Binary Contract: Every market is a simple yes or no question. If your chosen man (say, Pedro Pascal) gets the cover, the 'Yes' contract pays out exactly $1. If he doesn't, it goes to $0.
Prices = Probabilities: The price you see is essentially the market’s confidence percentage. If Timothée Chalamet is trading at 19¢, the market thinks there is roughly a 19% chance he wins.
Buy Low, Sell High: You don’t have to wait for the magazine to hit the stands to make a profit. If you buy Bad Bunny at 18¢ and a viral video of him looking incredibly suave drops tomorrow, his price might jump to 30¢. In that scenario, you have the option to sell your contracts immediately. Do that and you’ll pocket the 12¢ profit per contract, regardless of who actually wins.
The 'No' Strategy: On Kalshi, you can also bet against someone. If you are 100% certain Travis Kelce won't win, you can buy a 'No' contract. At the current price of 99¢, that’d be an expensive way to make a tiny profit, but if you see ‘No’ prices falling this gives you another option.
Sexiest Man Alive Prediction Market FAQs
Yes. Unlike offshore betting sites, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). This means the market is legal in the U.S., and your funds are held securely. You aren't betting against a bookie; you're trading event contracts with other people.
On Kalshi, contracts are binary. If you buy a 'Yes' contract for Timothée Chalamet and he is not named Sexiest Man Alive, your contract settles at $0. If he wins, it settles at $1. Your profit is the difference between the price you paid (e.g., 19¢) and the $1 payout.
Absolutely. That is the beauty of an exchange. If you buy Pedro Pascal at 14¢ and his price jumps to 25¢ because of a viral interview, you can sell your contracts immediately to lock in a profit. You don’t have to hold until the final reveal to make money.
Kalshi uses a specific Incentivized Reporting or Official Source method. For this market, the source is People Magazine. Once People makes its official announcement, the market is resolved based on that data. There’s no judge's discretion, it’s based purely on the published result.
A 99¢ 'No' means the market is almost certain that person won't win. If you buy a 'No' contract at 99¢, you are risking 99¢ just to make 1¢ in profit. It’s a very low-yield trade, usually reserved for those who are certain a candidate is a total non-starter for the cover this year.
