If you thought predicting the winner of the World Cup was tense, try pricing a market based entirely on looks. The market for People’s Sexiest Man Alive is open, and that means only one thing: the time has come to place bets on our favorite Internet boyfriend of 2026.
Key Takeaways:
- Sinners and Black Panther star, Michael B. Jordan remains a favorite: The actor had been the favorite for a few weeks until he was overtaken by Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny. Jordan is creeping back up as he is up two percentage points.
- Expert pop culture historian Marie Nicola tells us that a competition like this will “ratify what the internet has already decided.”
- Most of the board is stuck in the 5¢ to 12¢ range, meaning one flattering paparazzi photo could send prices into a spin.
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The scientific criteria used to establish the winner of such an accolade remain a fiercely guarded secret, known only to those at People Magazine.
However, Kalshi traders are analysing everything from a certain someone’s undeniable Kenergy, to the allure of the actor of the moment, in an effort to determine who has what it takes to triumph in this high-stakes beauty pageant.
Soon we’ll see who has the jawline to yield the highest returns. But until then, here’s the latest on a market we’ll be watching with much interest.
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Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive this year?
Michael B. Jordan | ‘Yes’ 30¢
Michael B. Jordan has bagged this title in the past, but he remains a threat in the race for the cover.
Jordan has proven appeal with People magazine editors, he’s a certified Hollywood A-lister, and he won Best Actor at the last Oscars for Sinners.
The market may be leaning towards newer faces, but we shouldn’t count Jordan out at this point. At 30¢ and rising, he’s great value.
Pedro Pascal | ‘Yes’ 9¢
Known to many as the internet’s favorite "Daddy," Pedro Pascal has also established himself as a top contender in this year’s race.
Now trading at 9¢, a ‘Yes’ for Pascal offers significant value, given his appearances in two of the world’s biggest franchises, The Last of Us and The Mandalorian, and his huge fandom.
Pascal returns to cinema screens this weekend in The Mandalorian and Grogu. OK, you won't get to see much of Pascal's face, but his armored presence will be enough to grab attention.
Timothée Chalamet | ‘Yes’ 7¢
Chalamet had been widely expected to sweep the awards season for his role in Marty Supreme, following success at the Golden Globes, but the narrative quickly shifted as he lost out at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards.
March also saw Chalamet lose the top spot on the board for this year’s Sexiest Man Alive, when his ‘Yes’ price fell behind that of Bad Bunny for the first time.
Given the backlash he faced for those ballet and opera comments, the Dune star might struggle to regain first place.
The Challengers: Internet boyfriends assemble
Trailing slightly behind the current favourites are a group of men best known by their collective title: the Internet Boyfriends.
Ryan Gosling’s 9¢ price seems surprisingly low considering the Kenergy factor, as does the current 1¢ ‘Yes’ price for Frankenstein star, Oscar Isaac.
Veteran winners also feature on the list this year.
Could Chris Evans join the likes of Brad Pitt, George Clooney, Johnny Depp and Richard Gere and take the crown for a second time?
The Long Shots: Aesthetically pleasing value plays
Now, let’s take a good look at the longshots, because there are definitely some value plays worth considering in this really, really, ridiculously good-looking market.
First up we have the Kelce brothers, Travis and Jason, both of whom are currently 9¢ or lower. Travis is of course set to marry Taylor Swift very soon, and we can’t see her heading down the aisle with someone who doesn’t have the facial symmetry to top this list.
Speaking of facial symmetry, there’s another good value play on the board in the form of Jimmy Garoppolo of the Los Angeles Rams. He’s at 1¢, but we can’t see his ‘Yes’ price remaining that low for long.
Expert Insights from Celebrity PR Specialist Kayley Cornelius
To gain a better understanding of the mechanics behind the odds on prediction markets like Kalshi, we spoke exclusively with celebrity PR specialist Kayley Cornelius about this year’s race to be named Sexiest Man Alive.
This title is widely talked about as an editorial decision, but Cornelius told us it’s a "blend of both editorial judgment and some strategic PR influence."
According to Cornelius, a star's team will usually work, "months in advance to build the right narrative, whether that is through press coverage, brand partnerships or aligning with major film or TV releases."
"PR teams understand that this kind of title is as much about cultural relevance as it is about looks, so they ensure their client is front of mind across multiple touchpoints.
"That said, the title still has to land with the public. Editors are ultimately looking for someone who feels like a consensus choice."
Michael B. Jordan is the current favorite over Bad Bunny, who had been top of this board until recently. And that gives us a good glimpse into market sentiment around the two celebrities.
While not a "deciding factor," Cornelius notes that "betting markets are essentially reacting to data points like media coverage, social engagement and fan support, so they act as a useful indicator of who is having a moment."
From a commercial standpoint, if a name is "trending consistently, dominating headlines and gaining traction across different audiences, that becomes hard to ignore."
The "classic, aspirational quality" of a heartthrob like Timothée Chalamet still works, but Cornelius told us that it "can sometimes feel less dynamic in a social media-driven environment."
And of course, we’ve witnessed the volatilty of a market like this first-hand in recent weeks, when Chalamet’s ‘Yes’ price fell following a disappointing awards season and those ill-timed opera outbursts.
Cornelius warns that "for editors, the risk is not just about the individual, but about the reaction to the choice."
“If negative headlines are still fresh or dominating the narrative, it can quickly shift perception and make a candidate feel less “safe” for a mainstream cover... if they fear they may get backlash as a result of their decision, they may retract."
When asked about the rise of Pedro Pascal, Cornelius explained that this shows a shift in what she calls "bankable" archetypes. Pascal’s "Internet Daddy" persona is "incredibly valuable in today’s landscape," says Cornelius, as "personality, humour and relatability are becoming just as important as traditional good looks."
“Ideally, the strongest candidate combines both - someone who has the visual appeal of a traditional leading man but also the personality and cultural relevance of a figure like Pedro Pascal. That balance is what tends to deliver the biggest impact," says Cornelius.
Pop Culture Historian: “Institutions don't validate people anymore, they ratify what the internet has already decided.”
To understand the volatility of the Sexiest Man Alive prediction market, we sat down with Marie Nicola, pop culture historian at Past//Forward, to discuss how the definition of sexy has shifted and why the market favorite isn't necessarily a lock for the cover.
The 2026 market reflects a massive evolution in how audiences define desirability. According to Marie Nicola, the tough guy persona that was favored in the '80s and '90s has been replaced by a demand for emotional legibility.
"The shift happened around 2010 when charming and self-deprecating started to beat conventional intimidation," Nicola explains.
"The definition of sexy eroded from a top-down, prescribed pipeline... shifting from a specific flavour of sexy to being about magnetism and emotional legibility.”
“Jonathan Bailey in 2025 proved he’s not just a different man from Mel Gibson, but a different definition of sexy."
For most of the year, Bad Bunny has dominated the Kalshi boards, and he’s currently trading as second-favorite for Sexiest Man Alive. Marie Nicola explained that this could be seen as a potential inversion of People’s traditional gatekeeping role.
"Bad Bunny is a cultural icon because between the live performance and digital views, his Super Bowl halftime performance was one of the most watched events in American history.”
“If People shifts to validate a winner whose cultural authority lies outside their existing readership, it signals that the cover's gatekeeping function has inverted. People is no longer curating but is catching up and reflecting desirability back to readers."
One of the most frequent questions from traders is why a perennial favorite like Ryan Gosling is sitting at such low odds (currently around 12¢) compared to the "man of the moment."
Nicola attributes this to a lack of market urgency.
"Ryan Gosling lacks urgency," she explains.
"He will likely always be in the top 10... but he is permanently desirable—not urgently so."
"The shift that People has undergone isn't about curating who the sexiest man is.. Right now, it's optimized for rewarding arrival or a moment we're all tracking.
"So, is Gosling sexy? Yes. Is he SMA material? Likely not this year.”
While Hollywood stars have historically graced the cover, 2026 sees competition from athletes like Travis Kelce and Jimmy Garoppolo. Marie Nicola points out that social media has destroyed the scarcity model that once kept athletes and entertainers in separate lanes.
"Celebrity became a participation system, not a broadcast," she says.
"Institutions don't validate people anymore, they ratify what the internet already decided. People feels like a lagging indicator rather than a tastemaker. They're not discovering sexy. They're officiating it."
People's Sexiest Man Alive Odds: Three value plays available now
Top payouts on a market like this will come from the overlooked characters on the list. Forget betting on the favorites, here are three of the best value plays to think about as you put together this very important portfolio.
Harry Styles | ‘Yes’ 4¢
Harry Styles is no stranger to People magazine accolades, but he’s yet to be named Sexiest Man Alive. Currently far behind the likes of Chalamet and Bad Bunny, Styles appears overlooked in this market. But he shouldn’t be. Having just released his fourth studio album, which debuted at #1, Styles has the kind of enduring popularity that would make him the perfect choice. And he’s just 4¢.
Oscar Isaac | ‘Yes’ 1¢
If there's one name that consistently sparks outrage for being snubbed by People magazine year after year, it’s Oscar Isaac. This is an actor with an enormous fan base, and he recently starred in one of the top movies of 2025: Frankenstein. Trading at 1¢, Isaac is the perfect value play for those who believe People’s editorial team could be about to bow to demand to make him the cover star.
Ryan Gosling | 'Yes' 9¢
At 9¢, Gosling’s ‘Yes’ price is low for someone with a permanent place on the A List. He’s always a favorite with People Magazine editors, and he’s got that continued heartthrob narrative the decision makers will be looking for. The market may be focusing its attention on relative newcomers, but Gosling could still grace that cover.
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How it Works: Trading Sexiest Man Alive Prediction Markets on Kalshi
If you're used to traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi might feel like you’ve ventured onto a different planet, but it’s simple once you get the hang of it.
The key thing to remember is that with Kalshi, you’re trading assets rather than just placing a bet.
Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, and it treats markets like this in exactly the same way as it treats interest rates or oil prices. Here’s how it works.
The Binary Contract: Every market is a simple 'Yes' or 'No' question. If your chosen man (say, Pedro Pascal) gets the cover, the 'Yes' contract pays out exactly $1. If he doesn't, it goes to $0.
Prices = Probabilities: The price you see is essentially the market’s confidence percentage. If Timothée Chalamet is trading at 9¢, the market thinks there is roughly a 9% chance he wins.
Buy Low, Sell High: You don’t have to wait for the magazine to hit the stands to make a profit. If you buy Bad Bunny at 28¢ and a viral video of him looking incredibly suave drops tomorrow, his price might jump to 40¢. In that scenario, you have the option to sell your contracts immediately. Do that and you’ll pocket the 12¢ profit per contract, regardless of who actually wins.
The 'No' Strategy: On Kalshi, you can also bet against someone. If you are 100% certain Travis Kelce won't win, you can buy a 'No' contract. At the current price of 99¢, that’d be an expensive way to make a tiny profit, but if you see ‘No’ prices falling this gives you another option.
Sexiest Man Alive Prediction Market FAQs
Yes. Unlike offshore betting sites, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). This means the market is legal in the U.S., and your funds are held securely. You aren't betting against a bookie; you're trading event contracts with other people.
On Kalshi, contracts are binary. If you buy a 'Yes' contract for Timothée Chalamet and he is not named Sexiest Man Alive, your contract settles at $0. If he wins, it settles at $1. Your profit is the difference between the price you paid (e.g., 19¢) and the $1 payout.
Absolutely. That is the beauty of an exchange. If you buy Pedro Pascal at 14¢ and his price jumps to 25¢ because of a viral interview, you can sell your contracts immediately to lock in a profit. You don’t have to hold until the final reveal to make money.
Kalshi uses a specific Incentivized Reporting or Official Source method. For this market, the source is People Magazine. Once People makes its official announcement, the market is resolved based on that data. There’s no judge's discretion, it’s based purely on the published result.
A 99¢ 'No' means the market is almost certain that person won't win. If you buy a 'No' contract at 99¢, you are risking 99¢ just to make 1¢ in profit. It’s a very low-yield trade, usually reserved for those who are certain a candidate is a total non-starter for the cover this year.
