Next James Bond Odds & Prediction Market for Daniel Craig's 007 Successor

Who will win out in the 'Next James Bond' odds market? The prediction markets have sprung into action since the first auditions began in May. But which budding 007 will be left shaken and stirred by the casting directors?

While the Next James Bond odds rumor mill has churned through every British (and Aussie) actor under 40, prediction sites like Kalshi have finally begun to settle on a distinct hierarchy of contenders for the role of the world’s most famous spy.

It has been nearly five years since Daniel Craig sipped his final Martini in No Time To Die, and the tuxedo remains unclaimed. Finally, the first hopefuls will be put to the test. 

The next James Bond market doesn't resolve for a few years. However, we are tracking the live odds on Kalshi and breaking down where the smart money is going.

Key Takeaways

• The Gen Z Hopeful: Aussie actor, Jacob Elordi, went from 15 cents on February 16 to 40 cents before settling in the teens. He has surged off the back of rumors that producers want a young, leftfield choice. 
• The Brit Favorite: Callum Turner is still a 58% favorite, displacing longtime "sure things" like Aaron Taylor-Johnson. Plus, he's had A-list backing from George Clooney.
• The Acting Heavyweight: Harris Dickinson has come from nowhere a few weeks ago to become a 15% shot. The award-winning Brit is the right age and certainly has the acting chops. 
• This market is seriously volatile: Casting has started, and there are reports a group of lucky hopefuls have made it to the second round. On Kalshi, prices are swinging around. Just worry about selling if you spot a price spike in the coming months.

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Next James Bond Odds

Shaken & Stirred: The Top 007 Contenders

Callum Turner | 'Yes' at 44¢

The Thesis: If you believe the franchise will return to its roots, Turner is the logical play.

• Why it’s a Value Play: At 45%, Turner represents a coinflip, although he clearly outguns his nearest rival in the Next James Bond odds. Visually, he fits the Ian Fleming description better than anyone else on the board and has proven his acting skills across a number of properties.

Callum Turner has had big backing this week from George Clooney. The star, who directed Turner in The Boys in the Boat, called Turner, "the perfect guy to do it. He's tall, handsome, and charming, and British."

Turner's turn in Masters of the Air proved he can carry a major production, and with fiancée Dua Lipa, he has proved he can handle the celebrity spotlight.

Turner was as high as 67% last December. He hasn't been that high since, despite continued buzz lifting his price back up near the 50% mark. Plus, if you bought at 39 cents on our recommendation last month, you could sell now for a quick profit. 

Jacob Elordi | 'Yes' at 19¢

The Thesis: According to The Rest is Entertainment host, Marina Hyde, the Saltburn and Wuthering Heights heartthrob is in "pole position" for the role of 007. In a recent viral podcast episode, Hyde highlighted Elordi's "Gen-Z A-list" credentials. What about a first Millennial Bond (the franchise has never had one)? That could be for Amazon's inevitable TV spin-off.

• Why it’s a Decent Buy: While George Lazenby was Australian, the producers have heavily implied a preference for a British successor. Furthermore, Elordi's skyrocketing fame in Hollywood (and his role in Euphoria) might actually work against him. 

Elordi was as high as 40 cents this week before dipping down and rewarding sellers who'd got in early. The 19 cents looks even better value now.

Hyde's prediction has been gaining traction across news sites. Plus, Elordi's new Chanel ad clearly shows the Aussie actor in full-on 007 mode. A sign of things to come?

• Trade on the Internet Buzz: You could have bought the 'Yes' at 21 cents a few weeks ago and sold last week to lock in a profit. Remember, auditions have started, so reports of good casting calls may leak out. 

Harris Dickinson | 'Yes' at 6¢

The Thesis: The 29-year-old British actor was mooted in the broadsheets as a potential 007 months ago. However, his price on the markets has bubbled along at around 4-5 cents ever since. That was until last week, when he jumped to 25 cents off the back of some internet casting rumors. 

A flurry of bets on sportsbooks prompted UK bookmaker William Hill to temporarily suspend betting on Dickinson last month.

He led the Kalshi market for a while off the back of that news. However, traders have sold their position and he's back at 6%. 

• Why it’s a Buy: The big money move was speculation only. The beauty of prediction markets, though, is that you can trade out of a position and make an early profit. If the market is moving that much, you can join in and take advantage.

• The Risk: Final casting of 007 isn't due for months. Yes, Dickinson is British, the right age, and has serious acting potential. Plus, he will be seen in the new Beatles biopics soon as John Lennon. Could he pull off two British icons in one year?

Value Picks, We've Been Expecting You...

Tom Francis | 'Yes' at 7¢

The Thesis: There's little speculation around the 26-year-old stage specialist. Variety confirmed that Tom Francis has auditioned for Bond, so the 25% was tempting a while ago. He's even lower now, so the 'Yes' recommendation still holds. Plus, he's in a relationship with Dua Lipa, so expect his name to be in the press for a while longer. 

• Why it’s a Buy: Tom Francis has the advantage of already visiting the casting director's office, unlike bigger names such as Henry Cavill. Francis went from 0% to 16% overnight on this news. And as the showbiz media train gathers momentum, expect his price to go up. You can lock in a profit by buying low right now before selling later. 

• The Risk: Francis is primarily a stage actor, having won awards for Sunset Boulevard, among other productions. The lack of screen experience may count against him and, at 26, he may be a little young. However, we do know that Amazon MGM Studios does want to mix things up this time around. 

Idris Elba | 'No' at 97¢

The Wire star was seemingly "in the running" to play 007 for years, according to those leaked Sony letters. However, things have moved on, and not even Elba himself thinks he has a chance. 

In an interview with PEOPLE, the Londoner said he was "never in the race" for Bond, but wishes whoever gets the role "all the luck in the world". 

The now-53-year-old will be appearing in the new summer blockbuster, Masters of the Universe, however. The wait for the first black 007 goes on. 

Casting 007: How the Next James Bond Will Unfold

Speculation on the next Bond has been rife since Amazon MGM Studios took over the Bond franchise. Here are some things we know so far:

• The Takeover: Amazon purchases MGM, owners of the Bond franchise.
• The Creative Team: Amy Pascal and David Heyman are put in charge of production. With Spider-Man and Harry Potter, the pair were responsible for two of the biggest film franchises ever. 
• The Writer: British writer, Steven Knight, (Peaky Blinders) is on board on screenwriting duties. Could Peaky Blinders star, Cillian Murphy, be a value shot at 3 cents?
• Casting: Auditions for 007 officially began in May 2026. 
• Production Timeline: Filming on the first new Bond film since No Time to Die is expected to begin in 2027, with Canadian director Denis Villeneuve signed on. 

Trading the Tuxedo: How to Play the Bond Market

Unlike betting on a football game where the outcome is decided in 90 minutes, casting markets are information wars. Here is how to navigate the volatility:

1. Watch the "Trades": In this context, "trades" refers to industry publications such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Kalshi’s rules specifically cite Variety as a resolution source. If a reputable reporter drops a "shortlist" article, the market will react instantly.

2. The "Official" Announcement Lag: Historically, the "official" press conference happens weeks or months after the deal is signed. The market often resolves or hits 99¢ based on the reputable trade report before the actor steps out on stage.

3. Hedge Against "The Field": Currently, the market is heavily consolidated around a few names. If a surprise candidate like Aaron Taylor-Johnson (who was an early favorite through 2024-25) or Paul Mescal re-enters the conversation, the values of O'Connor and Turner will dilute rapidly.

Next James Bond Odds: The History Of The World’s Most Famous Superspy

Who will play the next Bond girl? 

Kalshi doesn't just have prediction markets for 007. You can also buy and sell contracts on which actress will be next to take on one of cinema's most coveted roles. Take a look at the latest Bond girl odds to find the best value plays available right now. 

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