Navigating the Next James Bond odds in the prediction markets is like performing stunts from Casino Royale. As James Bond casting updates continue to swirl, traders are getting their tuxedos in a twist trying to second-guess the producers.
So, who is the next James Bond, and how can you find the right value plays?
Virtually every British actor aged 30–40 seems to be under consideration, with Scot Jack Lowden the new favorite.
Prices change on the prediction sites every time a young Brit actor gets featured in the trades with a Hollywood actress in tow.
̸/̸̅̅ ̆̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ License to Kill: Next 007 Actor Odds
It has been nearly five years since Daniel Craig sipped his final Martini in No Time To Die, and the tuxedo remains unclaimed. Finally, the first hopefuls will be put to the test.
The market on the next actor cast as James Bond doesn't resolve for a few years. However, we are tracking the live odds on Kalshi and breaking down where the smart money is going.
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Key Takeaways
- The New Scottish Favorite: Podcaster and author, Richard Osman, now says Jack Lowden is being "strongly considered" for the role. That;s the sort of buzz that can send markets skyrocketing.
- Callum Turner Second Best: Former fashion model, Callum Turner, led the pack until last night. Is it the right time to sell at 34%?
- This market is seriously volatile: James Bond casting updates have begun, so now’s the time to start riding the media wave. On Kalshi, prices are swinging around. Just worry about selling your event contracts if you spot a price spike in the coming months.
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🍸Shaken & Stirred: The Top 007 Contenders
Jack Lowden | 'Yes' 35¢ | 36% chance
Sometimes, all it needs is a little push from a prominent entertainment podcaster. And that's just what Jack Lowden received when The co-host of The Rest is Entertainment, Richard Osman, suggested the Scottish actor was being "strongly considered".
Lowden is the right age for Bond (he's 36), has the acting kahunas, and the rugged looks. His acting credentials stretch from Dunkirk to Slow Horses, and he will appear in a new Netflix adaptation of Pride & Prejudice in the fall.
If cast, Lowden would become the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery. That may be the kind of legacy Amazon MGM may want to tap into.
Callum Turner | 'Yes' 34¢ | 34% chance
Callum Turner has consistently been the front-runner in the Next James Bond market ever since buzz for near-rival Aaron Taylor-Johnson cooled.
However, the 007 prediction market has evened out a little, with Turner being slowly caught by Jacob Elordi, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and now Jack Lowden.
Turner’s price reached the dizzy heights of 67% last December, plus he’s had some A-list endorsements in the shape of George Clooney.
“He’s the perfect guy to do it,” said Clooney, who directed Turner in his sports movie, The Boys in the Boat, last year. “He’s tall, handsome, and charming. And British!”
Turner's turn in Masters of the Air proved he has the acting clout to carry a major production. Plus, with fiancée Dua Lipa, he has proved he can handle the celebrity spotlight.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 'Yes' 18¢ | 16% chance
The Bullet Train star was seemingly everyone’s pick a couple of years ago to be the next 007 actor. That was before any James Bond casting updates had come out, of course.
Taylor-Johnson is well-known, particularly for beefed-up roles in Avengers: Age of Ultron, 28 Years Later, and 2024 Spiderverse stinker, Kraven the Hunter.
In 2024, The Sun reported that Taylor-Johnson had officially been offered the part. That speculation increased when he signed on for an ad campaign with Omega watches (the choice of 007). He’s also young enough to handle the 4–5 movies required by any new aspiring James Bond.
Jacob Elordi | 'Yes' 17¢ | 15% chance
Jacob Elordi represents one of the most volatile Bond event contracts. No slipups, 007...
According to The Rest is Entertainment host, Marina Hyde, the Saltburn and Wuthering Heights heartthrob is in "pole position" for the role of 007.
In a recent viral podcast episode, Hyde highlighted Elordi's "Gen-Z A-list" credentials. What about a first Millennial Bond (the franchise has never had one)? That could be for Amazon's inevitable TV spin-off.
However, a few months is a long time in predicting the next James Bond actor. The Australian’s price has gone the way of Goldfinger and been sucked out of the window of Bond opportunity.
Elordi was as high as 40¢ earlier this year before slumping. You could have sold at 40¢ if you didn’t think a non-British actor would get the part.
Plus, Elordi breaks the golden rule of a 007 actor: he’s just too famous right now – even if his Chanel ad blatantly pushes his Bond credentials.
🤵🏻007 Value Picks, We've Been Expecting You...
With media buzz flying, most of the candidates for next James Bond are real value plays on the markets. Some offer a low risk-to-reward ratio but keep track of the prices so you can sell quickly.
Tom Francis | 'Yes' 11¢ | 11% chance
Since news of the 007 auditions began, the broadsheets have been quick to fill column inches with a story about yet another "rumored name".
Of course, it doesn't matter if that name has any chance whatsoever. The news of an audition alone is enough to enhance that actor's chances.
London's West End's loss is Tom Francis' gain. The 27-year-old has been starring in Sunset Boulevard in the U.K. capital, picking up acting gongs along the way.
Plus, British bookmaker William Hill recently picked up a sizeable bet on the actor becoming Bond.
Tom Blyth | 'Yes' 6¢ | 5% chance
Tom Blyth shone as Coriolanus Snow in 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, so he obviously has the acting talent.
Then, of course, Reddit got involved, with 007 aficionados buzzing about how perfect Blyth would be in the role.
Incredibly, that sort of buzz has pushed Blyth to third (and sometimes second) favorite on the prediction markets behind Turner. But sometimes, that’s all you need when hunting value.
🎞️Casting 007: How the Next James Bond Will Unfold
Speculation on the next Bond actor has been rife since Amazon MGM Studios took over the franchise. Here are some things we know so far:
- The Takeover: Amazon has purchased MGM, owners of the Bond franchise.
- The Creative Team: Amy Pascal and David Heyman have been put in charge of production. With Spider-Man and Harry Potter, the pair were responsible for two of the biggest film franchises ever.
- The Writer: British writer, Steven Knight, (Peaky Blinders) has been hired for screenwriting duties. Could Peaky Blinders star, Cillian Murphy, be a value shot at 3¢?
- Casting: Auditions for 007 officially began in May 2026. The first round of auditions ended in June, with a new set due to begin this summer. We do know that producers are looking for someone young enough to carry the franchise for three to four movies.
- Production Timeline: Filming on the first new Bond film since No Time to Die is expected to begin in 2027, with Denis Villeneuve signed on to direct.
🤵Trading the Tuxedo: How to Play the Bond Market
James Bond casting markets are information wars. Here is how to navigate the volatility:
- Watch the "trades": In this context, "trades" refers to industry publications such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Kalshi’s rules specifically cite Variety as a resolution source. If a reputable reporter drops a "shortlist" article, the market will react instantly.
- Be wary of media “hot right now” announcements: Jacob Elordi was hot stuff two months ago following his Chanel ad. However, sentiment in the Aussie has nosedived as traders look elsewhere.
- Sell high, buy low: With such a volatile market, actors quickly come into favor before exiting faster than a Bond villain. Consider buying the ‘No’ first before flipping your trades when the prices dive. So far, only Callum Turner has maintained any kind of consistency.
- Don’t dismiss the other Bond markets: Kalshi doesn't just have prediction markets for the next 007. You can also buy and sell contracts on which actress will be next to take on one of cinema's most coveted roles. Have a look at the latest Bond girl odds to find the best value plays available now.
Next James Bond Odds FAQs
The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if the specific star you trade is the next actor cast as James Bond before January 1, 2030. If another actor is officially announced, the ‘No’ shares for all other candidates will pay out $1.00. For example, if you backed Aaron Taylor-Johnson at 67¢ to become 007 and he gets the part, you’d win 33¢ per share.
The Kalshi rules are strict on odds on the next James Bond. This market is for the next film in the core James Bond series only. Amazon spin-offs, unauthorized productions, or TV series castings do not count. It’s possible that one of our younger actors recommended in our value picks gets cast in a future Bond television series.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson was the heavy favorite throughout 2024 and 2025 due to persistent rumors of a screen test. However, the lack of confirmation over such a long period has caused market confidence to erode. In prediction markets, "stale news" is often treated as "bad news," leading traders to dump shares in favor of fresher names like Callum Turner.
While technically possible to bet on "Other" in some markets, Barbara Broccoli has explicitly stated on multiple occasions that James Bond will remain a male character. The Kalshi market reflects this, listing only male contenders. However, you can find odds on the next Bond girl at Kalshi which is attracting plenty of trade in event contracts.
