Next James Bond Odds: Prediction Markets Back Callum Turner To Get His License To Kill

It has been nearly five years since Daniel Craig sipped his final martini in No Time To Die, and the tuxedo remains unclaimed.

While the Next James Bond odds rumor mill has churned through every British actor under 40, the prediction sites like Kalshi have finally begun to settle on a distinct hierarchy of contenders for the role of the world’s most famous spy.

With casting decisions for the franchise reboot reportedly entering the final stages, the "Next Bond Actor" market has seen massive movement in early 2026. We are tracking the live odds and breaking down where the smart money is going.

Key Takeaways

• The New Favorite: Josh O'Connor has surged to the front of the pack, commanding a nearly 50% implied probability, displacing previous favorites like Aaron Taylor-Johnson.
• The Traditionalist Play: Callum Turner remains the strongest "classic Bond" contender, offering significant value at 26% if producers opt for a more traditional aesthetic over O'Connor’s quirkier energy.
• The Gen Z Longshot: Jacob Elordi is holding steady at 14%, though concerns about his age and non-British background (Australian) continue to keep his price ceiling low.
• Market Volatility: The market has seen a 16-point swing in O'Connor's favor over the last week alone, suggesting insider confidence or a substantial leak.

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Market Analysis: The Top Contenders

HOLD/BUY: Callum Turner | 'Yes' at 41¢

The Thesis: If you believe the franchise will return to its roots, Turner is the logical play.

• Why it’s a Value Play: At 41%, Turner may be priced as the favorite, but he visually fits the Ian Fleming description better than anyone else on the board and has proven his acting chops across a number of properties.

His turn in Masters of the Air proved he can carry a major production, and with fiancee, Dua Lipa: he has proven he can handle the celebrity spotlight.

The recent 15% rise in his price might be a reaction to the O'Connor hype train - you may want to buy now before the price rises even higher.

BUY: Josh O'Connor | 'Yes' at 29¢

The Thesis: The Challengers and The Crown star has climbed through the field in a dramatic fashion. Trading at 29 cents with a 27% probability, O'Connor represents the "prestige" pivot for the franchise.

• Why it’s a Buy: Bond producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson have historically favored actors with strong dramatic chops who can reinvent the character (e.g., Craig's "blunt instrument" era). O'Connor’s recent critical acclaim places him in the perfect "serious actor" sweet spot.

• The Risk: He lacks the traditional action-hero physique of a Henry Cavill or the suave polish of a Pierce Brosnan. If the studio gets cold feet and wants a "safe" model-handsome Bond, this contract crashes to zero.

SELL: Jacob Elordi | 'Yes' at 15¢

The Thesis: The Saltburn and Wuthering Heights star has the height and the jawline, but he likely lacks the passport.

• Why it’s a Sell: While George Lazenby was Australian, the producers have heavily implied a preference for a British successor. Furthermore, Elordi's skyrocketing fame in Hollywood (and his role in Euphoria) might actually work against him - Bond actors usually need to be relatively unencumbered by other massive franchises to commit to a 10-year contract. At 14 cents, this feels like a trap play for the uninitiated trader who believes fame equals fortune.

Trading the Tuxedo: How to Play the Bond Market

Unlike betting on a football game where the outcome is decided in 90 minutes, casting markets are information wars. Here is how to navigate the volatility:

1. Watch the "Trades": In this context, "trades" refers to industry publications like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Kalshi’s rules specifically cite Variety as a resolution source. If a reputable reporter drops a "shortlist" article, the market will react instantly.

2. The "Official" Announcement Lag: Historically, the "official" press conference happens weeks or months after the deal is signed. The market often resolves or hits 99¢ based on the reputable trade report before the actor steps out on stage.

3. Hedge Against "The Field": Currently, the market is heavily consolidated around three names. If a surprise candidate like Aaron Taylor-Johnson (who was a favorite through 2024-25) or Paul Mescal re-enters the conversation, the values of O'Connor and Turner will dilute rapidly.

Next James Bond Odds: The History Of The World’s Most Famous Superspy

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