Next 007 Actor Odds: Callum Turner Retakes Prediction Market Lead as Announcement Nears

The next James Bond odds are available on Kalshi, and the "shortlist" is confusing traders across the board. Recent Gary Oldman buzz catapulted Jack Lowden to the top of the Next 007 prediction market. However, it's an early favorite for the role, Callum Turner, who is this week attracting 'Yes' trades again. 

Early Kalshi board favorite Turner is back on the rise as the safe bet to be the next 007. He has held the top spot for most of the last year before being overtaken by Lowden. Do traders sense that this is Turner's time to shine?

Oldman has been in the news claiming "key information" about his Slow Horses co-star, Jack Lowden. Lowden shares jumped to 57¢ following Oldman's showbiz interview before traders sold their position. He's now settled to around 43¢. 

̸/̸̅̅ ̆̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ License to Kill: Next 007 Actor Odds

Prices change on the prediction sites every time a big name tips one of the hopefuls to be James Bond. But with a widely-reported shortlist narrowing the field, and screen tests due to start, it should be easier to pick a final 007.

The market on the next actor cast as James Bond doesn't resolve for a while longer. However, we are tracking the live odds on Kalshi and breaking down where the smart money is going. 

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

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Key Takeaways

• Early favorite Callum Turner is back: The long-time Kalshi favorite's price is climbing again. If you bought low, now's the time to sell.
• Jack Lowden is back in second place: Podcaster Richard Osman said last month that Jack Lowden was being "strongly considered" for the role. Gary Oldman's public comments sent his price up again. Then, writer Steven Knight refused to be drawn on whether he knew the new 007's identity after being quizzed about Lowden.
• Six actors are on the 007 "shortlist": The list includes Jacks Lowden and Barton, Callum Turner, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, and Harris Dickinson.
• This market is seriously volatile: On Kalshi, prices are swinging around. Just worry about selling your event contracts if you spot a price spike in the coming months.

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🍸Shaken & Stirred: The 007 Shortlist

Callum Turner | 'Yes' 48¢ | 48% chance

Callum Turner has consistently been the #1 or #2 in the Next James Bond market ever since buzz for near-rival Aaron Taylor-Johnson cooled.

However, the 007 prediction market has evened out a little, with Turner being slowly caught by Jacob Elordi, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and now Jacks Lowden and Barton. Last week, Turner was in second place at 35%. He has now snatched the lead once again for the first time in a month. 

Turner’s probability reached the dizzy heights of 67% last December, plus he’s had some A-list endorsements in the shape of George Clooney.

“He’s the perfect guy to do it,” said Clooney earlier this year and who directed Turner in his sports movie, The Boys in the Boat. “He’s tall, handsome, and charming. And British!”

Turner's performance in Masters of the Air showed he has the acting clout to carry a major production. Plus, with fiancée Dua Lipa, he has proved he can handle the celebrity spotlight.

Jack Lowden | 'Yes' 43¢ | 43% chance

Sometimes, all it needs is a little push from a Hollywood superstar or entertainment podcaster.

And that's just what Jack Lowden received when Gary Oldman came out to say he thinks he "knows" who the lucky recipient of the tuxedo is. 

"We're going to find out pretty soon, aren't we," Oldman told Canada's The Morning Show at the weekend. "Because they have picked him."

That seemed pretty definitive from the British acting legend. 

The co-host of The Rest is Entertainment, Richard Osman, also suggested during the summer that the Scottish actor was being "strongly considered" to be Bond. 

Last week, Bond screenwriter Steven Knight was interviewed by the BBC and refused to be pushed on whether he knew who Bond was. "I cannot speak about this subject," he said. 

Lowden is the right age for Bond (he's 36), has the acting kahunas, plus the rugged looks. His acting credentials stretch from Dunkirk to Slow Horses, and he will appear in a new Netflix adaptation of Pride & Prejudice in the fall. 

If cast, Lowden would become the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery. That may be the kind of legacy Amazon MGM may want to tap into.

However, not everyone is impressed. Bond fiction writer Charlie Higson said last week that Lowden was "not a convincing hand-to-hand fighter", compared to previous 007 Daniel Craig who, Higson said, you could believe "kicking the s**t out of someone". 

Lowden's price has cooled a little, but that could just be trader caution, rather than more showbiz gossip. 

Jack O'Connell | 'Yes' 11¢ | 11% chance

OK, Jack O'Connell isn't on the shortlist, but could he surprise a few Kalshi traders?

O'Connell has been bubbling around the 7-12% mark on Kalshi for a while. He's also ahead of actual shortlist contenders like Harris Dickinson. 

There's no doubt that O'Connell is one of the biggest UK stars right now. He starred in two big horror hits in quick succession: 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple and the excellent Sinners. 

O'Connell certainly has the screen presence and the menacing look. Perhaps he's a future Bond chance?

Harris Dickinson | 'Yes' 11¢ | 10% chance

The King's Man star has proved he has the action star kahunas to play Bond. And those earlier reports of disinterest in the project have subsided. Dickinson is also 28, the age 007 producers are reportedly targeting with their casting choice. 

Bizarrely, Dickinson was overtaken in the market by Aaron Taylor-Johnson (6%), who wasn't even meant to be in the running as news of the shortlist broke. 

Jack Barton | 'Yes' 11¢ | 9% chance

Young star, Jack Barton, was the shock new favorite to become the next James Bond suring the summer, but his price has also cooled. 

He is unknown in the U.S. but is known to U.K. audiences as part of the cast of the BBC's SAS: Rogue Heroes alongside Jack O'Connell. He's also known to younger audiences via Netflix's Heartstopper.  

According to media reports, Barton will screen-test for 007 this month after passing an earlier audition. He was the #1 in this market for a while but has cooled with cautious traders. His price has now slumped following good reports on Lowden. 

Jacob Elordi | 'Yes' 5¢ | 5% chance

Jacob Elordi represents one of the most volatile Bond event contracts. No slipups, 007...

According to The Rest is Entertainment host earlier this year, Marina Hyde, the Saltburn and Wuthering Heights heartthrob was in "pole position" for the role of 007.

In a viral podcast episode, Hyde highlighted Elordi's "Gen-Z A-list" credentials. Maybe a Millennial Bond would have been perfect for any inevitable Amazon TV spinoff. 

However, a few months is a long time in predicting the next James Bond actor. The Australian’s price has gone the way of Goldfinger and been sucked out of the window of Bond opportunity.

Elordi was as high as 40¢ earlier this year before slumping. You could have sold at 40¢ if you didn’t think a non-British actor would get the part. 

Plus, Elordi breaks the golden rule of a 007 actor: he’s just too famous right now – even if his Chanel ad blatantly pushes his Bond credentials.

🎞️Casting 007: How the Next James Bond Will Unfold

Speculation on the next Bond actor has been rife since Amazon MGM Studios took over the franchise. Here are some things we know so far:

• The Takeover: Amazon has purchased MGM, owners of the Bond franchise.
• The Creative Team: Amy Pascal and David Heyman have been put in charge of production. With Spider-Man and Harry Potter, the pair were responsible for two of the biggest film franchises ever.
• The Writer: British writer, Steven Knight, (Peaky Blinders) has been hired for screenwriting duties. Could Peaky Blinders star, Cillian Murphy, be a value shot at 3¢? It seems as though Knight knows who the Bond pick is, but he won't say.
• Casting: Auditions for 007 officially began in May 2026. The first round of auditions ended in June, and screen tests start this month. We do know that producers are looking for someone young enough to carry the franchise for three to four movies.
• The "Shortlist": It was reported in August that a "shortlist" of potential Bonds had been reached. Though none of the actors on it were a surprise, there were no superstar standouts. But then, no 007 actor so far was a massive name before landing the job.
• Production Timeline: Filming on the first new Bond film since No Time to Die is expected to begin in 2027, with Denis Villeneuve on board to direct.

🤵Trading the Tuxedo: How to Play the Bond Market

James Bond casting markets are information wars. Here is how to navigate the volatility:

1. Watch the "trades": In this context, "trades" refers to industry publications such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Kalshi’s rules specifically cite Variety as a resolution source. When a reputable reporter dropped a "shortlist" article, the market reacted instantly.
2. Be wary of media “hot right now” announcements: Jacob Elordi was hot stuff a few months ago following his Chanel ad. However, sentiment in the Aussie nosedived as traders pivoted toward lesser-known British actors.
3. Sell high, buy low: With such a volatile market, actors quickly come into favor before exiting faster than a Bond villain. Consider buying the ‘No’ first before flipping your trades when the price dives. Now that the "shortlist" has dropped, be very careful about a congested market of also-rans.
4. Don’t dismiss the other Bond markets: Kalshi doesn't just have a prediction market on the next 007. You can also buy and sell contracts on which actress will be next to take on one of cinema's most coveted roles. Check the latest Bond girl odds to find the best value plays available now.

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