The official cast announcement market for Dancing with the Stars has just closed, which means we now know which celebrities will be taking to the dance floor this fall. And of course, attention is on the stars we think are most likely to lift the mirrorball trophy at the end of the season.
Kalshi traders are putting money on the famous faces they expect to have the moves to steal the show. It all kicks off on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, with a special two-night premiere event.
Dancing with the Stars Winner Odds 2026
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Early favorites will come as no surprise, considering the fact that some already have professional dance training (Jenna Dewan, for example). But as always, there’s plenty of potential amongst the underdogs.
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Key Takeaways:
- Frontrunner Established: Jenna Dewan leads the board at 46¢, commanding a massive lead over the rest of the contestant pool.
- Longshot Contenders: Harry Shum Jr. (8¢) and Tyler Cameron (8¢) head a crowded middle tier of viable contenders this season.
- Early Value Plays: High-profile names like Amber Glenn (10¢) and Julia Stiles (9¢) are worth considering, especially if we see some good technique from them in the opening episode.
Prediction markets always give us a fascinating insight into how viewers see the season going. Because traders are putting real money at risk, they’re far more likely to back the contestants they really believe in (rather than just the most popular options). Let’s take a look at the board as it stands.
Dancing with the Stars Winner Odds: Season 35
The Season 35 outright winner market on Kalshi is currently dominated by one clear favorite, with the rest of the board trading within tight, single-to-low-double-digit probability brackets. A 'Yes' on any contestant represents their standalone chances of winning the entire competition.
| Celebrity | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Dewan | 40% | 43¢ | 60¢ |
| Julia Stiles | 16% | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 9% | 10¢ | 92¢ |
| Ciara Miller | 8% | 7¢ | 97¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 7% | 8¢ | 94¢ |
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Winner: Why are Traders Backing Jenna Dewan?
Jenna Dewan sits at a 40% implied win probability, because traders recognise that her background as a dancer and actress gives her a clear advantage in the competition.
However, market movement so far indicates that traders are weighing her elite experience against potential voter pushback, a recurring debate on DWTS regarding contestants with prior professional dance experience.
Dancing with the Stars Value Picks: Profit Potential on the Board
Trading prediction markets effectively is about more than just picking the winner correctly. If you can do that, then you’ll definitely profit. But there are other ways to make money on these markets.
Ideally, you want to spot instances where the public has either overreacted or underpriced a candidate's upside. When this happens, you can pick up ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts at bargain prices, and either sell them on as prices rise or hang on to them if you think the contestant in question is destined for success.
The Dancing with the Stars market is particularly interesting, because when a frontrunner consumes nearly half of the market share, it results in high-potential long shots falling to rock bottom prices. That’s exactly what we’re seeing at the moment, and it’s great news for traders.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Top Pick 1 | Julia Stiles | ‘Yes’ 9¢
Currently trading at just 9¢ (but with an implied probability of 16%), Julia Stiles is in second place and looks like one of the most mispriced options on the board.
We haven’t forgotten Stiles’ iconic routines in Save the Last Dance, and while that may have been quite a while ago now, we don’t think she’s going to have lost that rhythm.
Stiles said in an interview that “[Save the Last Dance] did not prepare me for Dancing With the Stars,” but we do know she trained for a full two months before the film. It might not be quite the level of training other contestants have had, but there’s no way someone without the skills to do well in DWTS could’ve pulled off those performances!
Top Pick 2 | Harry Shum Jr. | ‘Yes’ 8¢
At an 8¢ entry price, Harry Shum Jr. is an outstanding pick in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio. Best known for his roles in Glee and Shadowhunters, Shum Jr. has definitely got the rhythm and charisma needed to appeal on a show like this. Now to mention the established cross-generational fan base.
The market is currently overlooking him due to Dewan's dominating presence, but if he logs the highest judge score in Week 1, his 'Yes' price could easily double before the first elimination.
Top Pick 3 | Amber Glenn | ‘Yes’ 10¢
U.S. figure skating champion Amber Glenn trades at just 10¢, which is surprisingly low for a contestant with this skillset.
Elite figure skaters historically perform exceptionally well on DWTS. They have the strength and athleticism to master all kinds of dance within their week of rehearsals, and they definitely know how to learn a dance routine and perform it in front of a huge crowd.
The market is underpricing how quickly figure skating performance skills translate to ballroom dancing, but we wouldn’t discount Glenn at this stage. Far from it!
Top Pick 4 | Tyler Cameron | ‘Yes’ 8¢
Tyler Cameron may not be known for his dancing, but Bachelor Nation contestants tend to drive massive fan voting blocks. Cameron enters Season 35 with an established reality TV fanbase, and that’s something traders might be underestimating.
Cameron is just 8¢ right now, but his voter demographic is likely to protect him from early elimination, meaning this could be a golden flip opportuntity.
Top Pick 5 | Jenna Dewan | ‘No’ 56¢
Taking a 'No' position on the overwhelming favorite as the season begins is another option we recommend you consider, particularly on reality shows like this one.
While Dewan is indisputably the most skilled dancer on paper, Dancing with the Stars history is filled with contestants who were outvoted in the finale by more relatable fan favorites. Going with 'No' on Dewan at 57¢ requires only that any other contestant wins, so it’s a broad safety net.
Other Dancing with the Stars Markets to Watch
There are plenty of Dancing with the Stars markets open on Kalshi, including options for second and third place. Secondary markets like these are enormously important for traders looking to hedge those primary positions.
Dancing with the Stars: Second Place Market
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Currently, Guillermo Rodriguez, Connor Wood, Ciara Miller, Jackson Olson, Giada De Laurentiis, and Harry Shum Jr. come with the highest price tags for second place. Frontrunner Jenna Dewan trades at 43¢ to finish as runner-up, highlighting how closely matched traders view this outcome across the entire cast.
Dancing with the Stars: Third Place Market
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Pricing for third place is fairly balanced across the board. Top candidates including Jenna Dewan, Tyler Cameron, Giada De Laurentiis and Ciara Miller are tied as slight favorites. Amber Glenn and Taylor Hanson follow closely behind.
Dancing with the Stars: Full Odds Table
| Celebrity | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Dewan | 40% | 43¢ | 60¢ |
| Julia Stiles | 16% | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 9% | 10¢ | 92¢ |
| Ciara Miller | 8% | 7¢ | 97¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 7% | 8¢ | 94¢ |
| Jackson Olson | 6% | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| Ezra Frech | 4% | 7¢ | 96¢ |
| Tyler Cameron | 4% | 8¢ | 96¢ |
| Conner Leavitt | 3% | 8¢ | 97¢ |
| Maura Higgins | 3% | 7¢ | 96¢ |
| Tatyana Ali | 3% | 7¢ | 97¢ |
| Giada De Laurentiis | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Sarah Jane Nader | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Taylor Hanson | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
How to Trade Dancing with the Stars Season 35 on Kalshi
If you’ve never used to Kalshi before, it’s easy to get set up and start trading in just a few minutes. Follow the steps below and before long you’ll be making your Dancing with Stars picks.
- Account Setup: Download the Kalshi app or visit the web platform, complete the quick identity verification, and fund your account using ACH, bank transfer, or debit card.
- Navigate: Search for "Dancing with the Stars" or locate the market under the Culture/Entertainment section. Select the "Season 35 Winner" event order book.
- Execute: Choose your target contestant, select either 'Yes' or 'No' contracts based on your target probability valuation, enter your contract size, and submit the order.
- Monitor: Track live price movements as scores and votes come in each week; you can close out your contract position at any time prior to the finale resolution.
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 FAQs
The winner is officially declared during the live Season 35 finale broadcast on ABC and Disney+. Kalshi resolves the market to 'Yes' for the celebrity officially announced as the winner in the finale or via official network channels immediately following the show.
Yes, traders can buy or sell their 'Yes' or 'No' contracts at any time while the market remains active prior to event resolution. This allows you to lock in profits or cut losses as real-time scores, fan votes, and eliminations shake up the leaderboard.
If a contestant withdraws, is disqualified, or is eliminated prior to the finale, their specific winner market contract automatically resolves to 'No'. Official announcements made during the original finale govern resolution regardless of any potential title adjustments made long after the show ends.
