The new season of Dancing with the Stars premiered on September 15, and prediction markets have been moving at lightning speed in response ever since. Episode five is now just hours away, so it's time to analyze the latest movement on the markets.
Ezra became the standout favorite last week, and remains at the top of the board after his performance in episode four. We first saw Ezra Frech win judges over on 'Viral Hits Night', with traders rushing to snap up 'Yes' contracts for the star on September 23. Since then, he's proven hard to beat on the prediction markets.
Now, Ezra is out front on 45%, with early contenders like Amber Glen, Harry Shum Jr, Jenna Dewan and Maura Higgins leading the chasing pack. But as we've already seen, prices can change in a matter of moments in this highly volatile market.
Dancing with the Stars Winner Odds 2026
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Some of our early favorites came as no surprise, considering the fact that some already have professional dance training (Jenna Dewan, for example). But as the rapid price rise for Higgins has just shown, there’s plenty of potential amongst the underdogs in a competition like this.
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Key Takeaways:
- Ezra Wows Again: Episode four's foxtrot helped Ezra hang on to top spot on the Kalshi board. He and partner Daniella Karagach scored 21 out of 30 again on September 29.
- Early Favorites Contending: Harry Shum Jr. has also been competing for top spot since the season premiere, before Ezra stole the show. His price may have dropped a little, but he's still got huge potential. With markets like this one, it could all change in a single episode.
- Volatility on the Board: Maura Higgins has seen some huge price jumps since the market opened. Some will already have benefited from flip opportunities here.
Prediction markets always give us a fascinating insight into how viewers see the season going. Because traders are putting real money at risk, they’re far more likely to back the contestants they really believe in (rather than just the most popular options). Let’s take a look at the board as it stands.
Dancing with the Stars Winner Odds: Season 35
The Season 35 outright winner market on Kalshi is currently dominated by one favorite, with the rest of the board trading within tight, single-to-low-double-digit probability brackets. A 'Yes' on any contestant represents their standalone chances of winning the entire competition.
| Celebrity | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech | 45% | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 12% | 12¢ | 89¢ |
| Maura Higgins | 12% | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| Jenna Dewan | 10% | 11¢ | 90¢ |
Dancing with the Stars Value Picks: Profit Potential on the Board
Trading prediction markets effectively is about more than just picking the winner correctly. If you can do that, then you’ll definitely profit. But there are other ways to make money on these markets.
Ideally, you want to spot instances where the public has either overreacted or underpriced a candidate's upside. When this happens, you can pick up ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts at bargain prices, and either sell them on as prices rise or hang on to them if you think the contestant in question is destined for success.
The Dancing with the Stars market is particularly interesting, because when a frontrunner consumes nearly half of the market share, it results in high-potential long shots falling to rock bottom prices. That’s exactly what we’re seeing at the moment, and it’s great news for traders.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Top Pick 1 | Ezra Frech | ‘Yes’ 46¢
Sometimes, all it takes is one good dance. Paralympian Ezra Frech gave one of the best performances on the last show with partner Daniella Karagach. Their score of 21 out of 30 was the joint best of the night, and in episode four (September 29) the pair repeated that score with their foxtrot.
The pair also scored 20 out of 30 in the season's opening show. That was one of the highest scores for a DWTS premiere.
There's no doubt this pair is cooking, and Frech has the back story to boot. Can they keep up the momentum as the dances get harder? Loyal event contract traders will be hoping so.
Top Pick 2 | Maura Higgins | ‘Yes’ 13¢
Higgins was as high as 40¢ in this prediction market before the week two dance. But a score of 19/30 disappointed viewers and traders alike, hence the price drop.
Higgins has a huge and very vocal fanbase on DWTS following her Traitors appearance, and the judges’ reaction to her Traitors-inspired foxtrot in week one made a real impact on the prediction markets.
Paired with fan-favorite pro Mark Ballas, Higgins is still the one to beat in this competition. And unlike some of her competitors, she hasn’t had any prior professional dance training (another factor that could make fans more likely to vote for her).
Top Pick 3 | Harry Shum Jr. | ‘Yes’ 12¢
We tipped Harry Shum Jr as one of the best value plays when this market opened, when early traders picked up 'Yes' contracts for him at just 8¢. That soon rose to 21¢, putting Harry briefly at the top of the board, before his price fell again.
Harry Shum Jr. is now at 12¢ again, but some will have benefited from his price jumping recently. If you think Harry has what it takes to go far in the competition (as we do!) it's worth picking up contracts for him now they've dipped again. Currently, he's still an outstanding pick in terms of the risk-to-reward ratio.
Best known for his roles in Glee and Shadowhunters, Shum Jr. has definitely got the rhythm and charisma needed to appeal on a show like this. Now to mention the established cross-generational fan base.
Top Pick 4 | Amber Glenn | ‘Yes’ 14¢
U.S. figure skating champion Amber Glenn trades at 14¢. That's a slight rise from last week’s price of 10¢, but it's still surprisingly low for a contestant with this skillset.
Elite figure skaters historically perform exceptionally well on DWTS. They have the strength and athleticism to master all kinds of dance within their week of rehearsals, and they definitely know how to learn a dance routine and perform it in front of a huge crowd.
The market is underpricing how quickly figure skating performance skills translate to ballroom dancing, but we wouldn’t discount Glenn at this stage. Far from it!
Top Pick 6 | Jenna Dewan | ‘No’ 90¢
Taking a 'No' position on an on/off favorite as the season begins is another option we recommend you consider, particularly on reality shows like this one. And yes, ignore the top-scoring 21/30 she got in week two.
While Dewan is indisputably the most skilled dancer on paper, Dancing with the Stars history is filled with contestants who were outvoted in the finale by more relatable fan favorites.
If you acted quickly when the market opened, you would’ve picked up ‘No’ contracts for Dewan in the 50¢ range. Now that price has gone up to 90¢, but considering it requires only that any other contestant wins, it’s still a good safety net.
Dancing with the Stars Odds: Episode Five Elimination Predictions
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We’ve already said goodbye to four couples this season, and attention is turning to the couple most likely to leave the competition next.
The favorite to go on 29 September was Tatyana Ali, who is partnered with Taylor Swift’s former dancer Jan Ravnik. He’s well known for his Eras tour performances, but traders were dubious about whether Tatyana could it make it through episode four. But that just shows how hard it is to predict a show like this, because it was actually Taylor Hanson we said goodbye to on the night.
Now, it's all about the episode five elimination market. Will traders be right next week?
Other Dancing with the Stars Markets to Watch
There are plenty of Dancing with the Stars markets open on Kalshi, including options for second and third place. Secondary markets like these are enormously important for traders looking to hedge those primary positions.
Dancing with the Stars: Second Place Market
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One of the early frontrunners, Jenna Dewan is a great safety net pick for second place. She is already scoring well, and second place gives you a cushion if Ezra Frech's performances continue to shine.
The speed at which prices are moving here highlights how closely matched traders view this outcome across the entire cast.
Dancing with the Stars: Third Place Market
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Pricing for third place is fairly balanced across the board. Top candidates including Jenna Dewan and Maura Higgins are slight favorites. Harry Shum Jr. follows closely behind.
Dancing with the Stars: Full Odds Table
| Celebrity | |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Frech | 45% | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 14% | 14¢ | 87¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 12% | 12¢ | 89¢ |
| Maura Higgins | 12% | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| Jenna Dewan | 10% | 11¢ | 90¢ |
| Guillermo Rodriguez | 5% | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| Connor Wood | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Jackson Olson | 1% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Ciara Miller | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Julia Stiles | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Tatyana Ali | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| Tyler Cameron | <1% | 1¢ | -- |
| ❌ |
-- | -- | -- |
| ❌ |
-- | -- | -- |
| ❌ |
-- | -- | -- |
| ❌ |
-- | -- | -- |
How to Trade Dancing with the Stars Season 35 on Kalshi
If you’ve never used Kalshi before, it’s easy to get set up and start trading in just a few minutes. Follow the steps below and before long you’ll be making your Dancing with the Stars picks.
- Account Setup: Download the Kalshi app or visit the web platform, complete the quick identity verification, and fund your account using ACH, crypto, or debit card.
- Navigate: Search for "Dancing with the Stars" or locate the market under the Culture/Entertainment section. Select the "Season 35 Winner" event order book.
- Execute: Choose your target contestant, select either 'Yes' or 'No' contracts based on your target probability valuation, enter your contract size, and submit the order.
- Monitor: Track live price movements as scores and votes come in each week; you can close out your contract position at any time prior to the finale resolution.
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Dancing with the Stars Season 35 FAQs
The winner is officially declared during the live Season 35 finale broadcast on ABC and Disney+. Kalshi resolves the market to 'Yes' for the celebrity officially announced as the winner in the finale or via official network channels immediately following the show.
Yes, traders can buy or sell their 'Yes' or 'No' contracts at any time while the market remains active prior to event resolution. This allows you to lock in profits or cut losses as real-time scores, fan votes, and eliminations shake up the leaderboard.
If a contestant withdraws, is disqualified, or is eliminated prior to the finale, their specific winner market contract automatically resolves to 'No'. Official announcements made during the original finale govern resolution regardless of any potential title adjustments made long after the show ends.
