2020 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions

Oct 16, 2020 |
2020 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions
Don't bet against 12-time Nathan's Hot Dog eating champion Joey Chestnut who has the heart of a champion - and the stomach of one too.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Don't bet against 12-time Nathan's Hot Dog eating champion Joey Chestnut who has the heart of a champion - and the stomach of one too.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting is an annual Fourth of July tradition for gambling degenerates and food-lovers alike. ESPN will be airing the closed-doors event live at noon ET on July 4, and select sportsbooks have released odds.

This event is always a sweat (pun intended) as the best eaters in the world race to eat the most hot dogs in 600 seconds. These aren't just regular schmoes from your local BBQ joint. Entrants compete in eating contests year-round, under contract by Major League Eating (actually a real thing).

Here are our favorite Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions and prop bets for this Fourth of July spectacle. Remember to have fun with this event, and don't blow your bankroll - good luck and God Bless America!


Who will win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2020?

Prediction: Men's Championship Head to Head spread - Joey Chestnut -9.5 vs second-place winner

Don't even think of betting on who will win outright or you'll be eating more chalk than these competitors eat hot dogs. Joey Chestnut has won this title in 12 of the last 13 years - even Bill Russell only won 11 NBA championships - and is favored at -1,600 to win once again.

The man nicknamed "Jaws" is an absolute legend who devoured 71 hot dogs last year, 21 more than second-place Darron Breeden. He won by a whopping 29 weiners in 2018. Grab him at -9.5 which is an absolute bargain since I'd take this number all the way up to -17.5.

Prediction: Women's Championship Head to Head spread - Miki Sudo -6.5 vs Michelle Lesco

Sudo might not be juiced quite as much as Chestnut when it comes to winning outright, but at -850 she also has minimal value. She does, however, also look like a good bet on the spread against the expected runner-up Lesco.

Sudo has won the Mustard Belt in each of the last six years and although she "only" defeated Lesco by five hot dogs last year, the 31 dogs she ate was a career-low. She ate 37 in 2018, defeating Lesco by nine.

How many hot dogs will the winner eat? 

Prediction: Joey Chestnut - total hot dogs eaten Under 73.5 (-110)

Chestnut set the record with 74 in 2018 and he certainly likes his chances of breaking it, telling TMZ, “There’s a little bit of a bonus because we’re gonna be eating in air conditioning and there are less eaters, so they’re making less hot dogs so they might taste better. There’s a good chance that we might have better conditions for a world record and I’m gonna be pushing for it.”

First of all..taste better??? I'm pretty sure Chestnut isn't tasting anything when he's inhaling each dog in under 10 seconds but he does have a point about air conditioning. So can Jaws either equal or break his current record of 74? I'm leaning towards no, after all, he's only hit 74 once at this event and finished with 71, 72 and 70 in 2019, 2017 and 2016.

It will also be hard for him to push himself given that he'll likely have a massive lead in this contest and won't have fans in attendance to cheer him on. 

Prediction: Women's Championship - Total hot dogs eaten by winner Over 36.5 (-125)

Like we said, Sudo ate only 31 last year but that was a career-low and she ate a personal record 41 in 2017. If the AC helps Chestnut, it will likely help all competitors so Sudo should have little problem eclipsing this mark.


Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Prop Bets

Prediction: Will any contestant vomit - No (-1,200)

As fun as it can be to root for someone to hurl in this contest, it doesn't seem likely despite the grotesque amount of eating that will occur. Like we said these guys are professionals and they've also reduced the competitors from 15 in each division to 5, so it will be just the best of the best. 

Prediction: Will a contestant be interrupted by PETA during the contest - No (-800)

OK this is another prop heavily juiced towards the likely outcome but if a PETA protestor attempts to make it into the warehouse to disrupt proceedings they will need to have James Bond-levels of infiltration to pull it off. 

Where can I bet on the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? 

Since the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest isn't a traditional sporting event, not every online sportsbook will have odds available. Check out the top sportsbooks in your region and see what Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest betting options you have.

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