We only have hours to wait until we find out who will be next to leave Dancing with the Stars, but prediction markets are focusing their attention on one of the biggest names of the series: Maura Higgins.
DWTS Episode 10: Latest Elimination Odds
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There’s now over $7.6 million on the episode 10 elimination market on Kalshi. Traders are piling money on Maura as next to go, despite the fact that she was one of the season’s big favorites early on (and the fact that she's partnered with three-time mirrorball champion Mark Ballas!).
- Maura Higgins Leads Exit Odds: We’ve seen Maura Higgins emerge as the top pick to exit heading into episode 10.
- Tatyana Ali in Danger: Nostalgic contender Tatyana Ali follows closely behind at 'Yes' 39¢ (38% probability).
- Sleeper Value: In terms of mid-tier plays, Connor Wood and Amber Glenn are both interesting longshots, and this market has been difficult to predict in previous weeks.
As the stars put the finishing touches on their routines for tomorrow night’s live show, we’re looking for last minute value on the prediction market that just might know what’s in store this week.
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DWTS Elimination Odds: Episode 10
| Celebrity |  |
Buy 'Yes' | Buy 'No' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maura Higgins | 46% | 47¢ | 54¢ |
| Tatyana Ali | 38% | 39¢ | 62¢ |
| Connor Wood | 8% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| Amber Glenn | 7% | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| Harry Shum Jr. | 7% | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| Jenna Dewan | 6% | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| Ezra Frech | 2% | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| None | 1% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
All the attention on this market is centered around two key stars. The person with the highest exit probability for week 10 is reality TV star Maura Higgins, closely followed by actress Tatyana Ali.
If the market is to be believed, frontrunners like Jenna Dewan and Ezra Frech are safe, trading at probabilities of 6% and 2% respectively. And that’s in keeping with their implied probabilities on the DWTS winner market, where they’ve not strayed far from the top of the board.
Three Picks from the Dancing with the Stars Elimination Prediction Market
Maura Higgins | 'Yes' 47¢
Maura Higgins has surged to the top of this market’s exit board. The Traitors star and UK reality favorite has put together an impressive run alongside Mark Ballas, but traders think her time is finally running out.
Judges have pushed the scoring criteria higher late in the season, and standing against severe competition, traders see a very realistic likelihood of her exit in episode 10.
Tatyana Ali | 'No' 62¢
There are some good value ‘No’ options on this board. Tatyana Ali has a 62% market probability of surviving episode 10, but her dedicated fan backing could push those odds even higher.
Nostalgia for the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air icon has carried weight with voters across multiple weeks, and that built-in audience power could easily keep her safe even if judges' scores remain tight.
Connor Wood | 'Yes' 8¢
Another potential longshot play in danger is comedian Connor Wood, currently trading at 8¢.
Wood’s partnership with Rylee Arnold has attracted plenty of social media attention, as well as new fans. But as the competition races towards the final stretch, technique becomes increasingly important.
At 8¢, Wood offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio if either Higgins or Ali manage to deliver a standout routine and stay in the show.
Looking Beyond Episode 10? The Season 35 Winner Market
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Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
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Dodging elimination in week 10 might be the immediate goal for our remaining competitors, but others are already starting to eye up the trophy.
Traders have been casting votes on who they think is most likely to win the series since before it began, and that board continues to swing on week-to-week scoring shifts.
Prices react sharply to routine execution, judges' scores and social media buzz, but one name has stayed at the top of the board for weeks now.
For a complete breakdown of the latest odds, longshot value plays, and full season predictions, take a look at our dedicated Dancing with the Stars Season 35 winner odds page.
How to Trade Dancing with the Stars on Kalshi
Kalshi prediction markets are different from traditional sports betting. Instead of placing basic bets on outcomes, Kalshi lets traders put money on ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answers to real-world events.
There are markets for almost every outcome, from sports and politics to reality shows and music charts.
Here’s how to sign up and start trading Dancing with the Stars on Kalshi.
- Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi, complete the quick verification process, and deposit funds via ACH or bank transfer.
- Navigate: Search for "Dancing with the Stars" or browse under the Pop Culture tab to locate the Episode 10 Elimination market.
- Execute: Select your chosen contestant, choose 'Yes' or 'No', enter your contract quantity, and confirm your order.
- Monitor: Track price shifts in real time and choose to either hold until official resolution or sell early to lock in profits.
'DWTS' Elimination Market: Episode 10 FAQs
Maura Higgins is currently expected to be eliminated, leading the exit board with a 46% market probability. Actress Tatyana Ali follows closely behind with a 38% chance of exit as competition heats up before the finals. Other contestants remain significantly safer according to current trader pricing.
Kalshi contract prices directly align with perceived real-world probabilities. A contract trading at 'Yes' 47¢ represents a 46% to 47% market likelihood of that specific outcome occurring. Traders can buy 'Yes' or 'No' contracts based on whether they believe an event is over or undervalued.
The market resolves to 'Yes' for the celebrity officially eliminated during the live broadcast of episode 10. If multiple contestants are eliminated, each qualifying exit contract resolves accordingly based on official results. All non-eliminated contestant contracts settle to 'No' at 0¢ upon confirmation.
Yes, traders can exit their contract positions at any point before market close. You do not need to hold contracts until the episode finishes broadcasting. Selling early allows traders to lock in gains or mitigate potential losses as live market sentiment shifts.
