Josh Allen's top spot in the NFL MVP odds has finally been taken by an equally handsome and skilled quarterback — Joe Burrow.
The Cincinnati Bengals' QB has better stats in essentially all categories, excluding touchdowns, and traders have taken notice at Kalshi.
Here are the latest NFL odds surrounding the prestigious award, as fans continue to make their NFL picks.
- Burrow barrage breaks through
- Allen drops despite Bills success
- Williams' INT woes hurt MVP chances
NFL MVP odds
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Joe Burrow |
33% |
 Josh Allen |
23% |
 Brock Purdy |
16% |
 Jordan Love |
13% |
 Trevor Lawrence |
9% |
 Caleb Williams |
3% |
 Patrick Mahomes |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NFL MVP favorites
Joe Burrow followed up his masterclass vs. the Titans with another impressive showing in Spain, completing 24 of 29 passes while throwing three TD passes to zero interceptions.
This marks Cincinnati's fourth win in a row, and Burrow has played a big part in that success.
Despite the Bills' win in Minnesota, Josh Allen's lackluster numbers kept him out of the top spot. Brock Purdy, whose odds only slightly increased from 14% to 16% after an impressive Week 9 showing, still has a big mountain to climb.
Meanwhile, everything looked so good for Caleb Williams on MNF, until he threw four picks and barely scraped by a 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad.
NFL MVP prediction
Maye made an MVP push thanks to a weak 2025 schedule. Burrow follows that same smooth path in 2026, but is a far more talented QB. If Cincy makes good on the oddsmakers’ expectations and wins 11+ games, Burrow is your MVP.
Pick: Joe Burrow (10%)
Pick made by Jason Logan on Aug. 25.
NFL MVP winners by position
| Position | NFL MVP Awards |
|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 |
| Running back | 13 |
| Fullback | 4 |
| Halfback | 1 |
| Kicker | 1 |
| Defensive tackle | 1 |
| Linebacker | 1 |
Offensive players have dominated the NFL MVP Award since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.
NFL MVP winners by team
| Team | NFL MVP Awards |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers |
10 |
 Indianapolis Colts |
8 |
 San Francisco 49ers |
5 |
 Cleveland Browns |
4 |
 Los Angeles Rams |
5 |
 Las Vegas Raiders |
4 |
 New England Patriots |
3 |
 Washington Commanders |
3 |
 Kansas City Chiefs |
3 |
 Buffalo Bills |
3 |
The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).
Former NFL MVP winners
Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
| Player | Year | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford |
2025 | +5000 |
| Josh Allen |
2024 | +850 |
 Lamar Jackson |
2023 | +1600 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
2022 | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
2021 | +800 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
2020 | +3000 |
| Lamar Jackson |
2019 | +4000 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
2018 | +3525 |
| Tom Brady |
2017 | +385 |
 Matt Ryan |
2016 | +7500 |
 Cam Newton |
2015 | +5200 |
Listed above are the last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award, with Aaron Rodgers claiming three of them while on the Green Bay Packers.
NFL MVP Odds FAQs
Brock Purdy is the current NFL MVP favorite.
Matthew Stafford won the NFL MVP award last year after leading the Los Angeles Rams to the NFC Championship Game.
Running back Adrian Peterson won the NFL MVP award in 2012 as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.
While it's rare, a defensive player can win the MVP. The most famous example is linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who won in 1986. However, offensive players, particularly quarterbacks, typically dominate the award.
Who Decides the NFL MVP Winner? The winner is determined by a vote from 50 sportswriters, broadcasters, and former players from each of the 32 NFL cities. Additionally, fans can submit votes via an online ballot. The player with the most points wins the award.
Yes, you can place multiple trades on different players for the MVP award, though your potential payout will depend on the odds at the time of your bet and the likelihood of each player's performance.
In the event of a tie, the NFL MVP will typically be awarded to multiple players, although this has only happened a few times in league history. Betting sites usually clarify the rules for tied outcomes in their terms and conditions.
A longshot MVP trad is a wager on a player who is considered an unlikely winner of the MVP award. These bets often have high odds, which means a larger payout if the player somehow wins.
