2020 NFL MVP Odds: QBs fill the Top-10 favorites

Jun 29, 2020 |
2020 NFL MVP Odds: QBs fill the Top-10 favorites
Following the puzzling trade of star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has dropped down the 2020 NFL MVP odds board.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Following the puzzling trade of star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has dropped down the 2020 NFL MVP odds board.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off a Super Bowl title and currently has the best odds to win NFL MVP (+400), which would be his second MVP in three seasons.

Just behind Mahomes on the current NFL MVP odds board is reigning winner Lamar Jackson (+700), who threw for 3,127 yards and 36 touchdowns, while piling up another 1206 yards and seven scores on the ground for the 14-2 Baltimore Ravens last season.

The Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson (+800) is currently third in the NFL MVP favorite race, as he has been putting Seattle's offense on his back for the last few seasons. He threw for 4,110 yards and 31 TDs against just 5 interceptions despite facing constant pressure behind a pathetic Seahawks line in 2019. 

A newcomer to this odds list is Cam Newton (+3,000) after his recent signing with the New England Patriots. Newton won MVP in 2015 but has been limited by injuries recently, appearing in just two games in 2019. 

Twelve of the last 13 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks, so it's little surprise that the Top-10 favorites are all QBs. The first non-QBs on this list are running backs Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley (along with more quarterbacks) tied at +5,000.

One of the most notable moves on the odds board comes from Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who went from the fourth-highest favorite at +1,200 down to +2,500 and a tie for seventh. 

No wide receiver has ever won MVP, while the last defensive player to take home the hardware was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. L.A. Rams DT Aaron Donald has the best odds of any defensive player at +7,500 while last year's NFL's Offensive Player of the Year Michael Thomas is the top WR bet at a whopping +10,000.

Here are the current odds to win the 2020 NFL MVP:

ODDS TO WIN NFL MVP

Player Odds to win (as of June 29)
Patrick Mahomes +400
Lamar Jackson +700
Russell Wilson +800
Dak Prescott +1,400
Tom Brady +1,600
Carson Wentz +2,000
Drew Brees +2,500
Kyler Murray +2,500
Deshaun Watson +2,500
Cam Newton +3,000
Aaron Rodgers +3,000
Baker Mayfield +3,300
Jimmy Garoppolo +4,000
Josh Allen +5,000
Saquon Barkley +5,000
Ben Roethlisberger +5,000
Matt Ryan +5,000
Derrick Henry +5,000
Matthew Stafford +5,000
Christian McCaffrey +5,000
Drew Lock +6,000
Philip Rivers +6,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

 

HOW TO BET FUTURES ODDS

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom). 

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. 

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.  

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

For example in Lebron James' first season in Miami he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose who ended up winning MVP was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.  

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. 

The NBA MVP for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular season team in the league. While the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. 

Identifying those trends is a good way to seperate the true contenders from the pretenders.

Where can I bet on NFL awards?

Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live. 

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