Ever since the NFL invaded Christmas Day six seasons ago, football gamblers of all sorts have had to balance holiday commitments with our pigskin priorities.
It’s almost an Xmas tradition at this point.
Whether you’re placing NFL picks, fighting for a fantasy title, or chasing pool profits, you’ve likely found yourself discreetly checking scores on your phone, subtly glancing at the TV mid-conversation, or hiding out in the garage to watch the final two minutes with the sound off.
For those of you doing that dance between family fun and football fortunes, I salute you. Best of luck with your bets and covert capping.
Here are my best NFL underdog picks for Week 17.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 28-18-2 ATS (+7.0 units)
NFL Week 17 predictions and picks
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Ravens +2.5
Bears +3.5
Falcons +8.5
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Best bet: Ravens +2.5
(-110 at bet365)
The quarterback rotation for this non-conference Saturday showdown has all the mystery of “Secret Santa.”
Are we going to get something cool, like Lamar Jackson vs. Jordan Love? Or are we getting a re-gifted candle? Feels like a dusty candle at this point.
Love is in concussion protocol and has a short week to recover, while Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis is nursing a shoulder injury.
That leaves… (checks depth chart) practice squad QB Clayton Tune as the potential starter — unless the Cheeseheads want to pull a “Philip Rivers” and get some old bones off the couch.
As for the Baltimore Ravens, Jackson is day-to-day with a bruised back after leaving Sunday night’s loss to New England. Baltimore has a serviceable second stringer in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley, but more importantly has Derrick Henry.
Throughout his career, the bruising running back does his best work in December. He is once again on a tear this month, rushing for 94, 100, and 128 yards in the past three games.
Henry should smash through a Packers run stop that has come undone, allowing 110+ rushing yards in three of its last four and allowing a seventh-highest success rate per carry since Week 12.
Baltimore can dominate time and possession, taking the heavy work off whichever QB is under center, while boosting one of the better defenses in the second half of 2025. The Ravens stop unit stumbled out of the blocks but is a Top 7 defense since Week 9.
This spread isn’t finished moving, but I like what Baltimore brings to the table compared to the Packers’ possibilities in Week 17.
Chicago Bears (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Best bet: Bears +3.5
(-117 at Pinnacle)
The Chicago Bears head to the Bay Area for Sunday Night Football with a playoff berth in hand, but Chicago can still win the NFC North and make a run at the top seed in the NFC.
The Bears have a rare rest edge at this point in the season thanks to playing last Saturday, and the San Francisco 49ers featuring in Monday Night Football. That two-day edge is especially valuable on a travel week and sets up Chicago for success against the weakest defense it’s faced in a long time.
This offense has been one of the best in the second half of the schedule, despite some strong defensive opposition. Chicago has played the Packers twice, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota in the past six outings.
San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks well below those foes in defensive measurements. The Niners injury-thinned defense just allowed “The Ghost of QBs Past” — AKA Philip Rivers — to throw for 277 yards and two touchdowns on Monday.
San Francisco doesn’t roll the dice much with blitzes or pressure and won’t give up anything over the top. Rather, the 49ers choose “death by 1,000 papercuts,” with rival passers completing 68.4% of their throws and enjoying the second-highest success rate per dropback in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons (+8.5)
Best bet: Falcons +8.5
(-118 at FanDuel)
Technically, the Atlanta Falcons have nothing to play for on Monday Night Football. Atlanta was bounced from the playoffs a while ago and doesn’t even have much incentive to tank without a first round pick in 2026.
That said, head coach Raheem Morris could be fighting for his job in the closing weeks of the schedule, and a victory over his former sensei would go a long way.
Morris was the defensive coordinator for Sean McVay’s Super Bowl LVI team, and throwing a wrench in the Los Angeles Rams' postseason plans is incentive enough to show up in Week 17, when most teams in this spot would pack it in.
Bookmakers are pricing the Falcons as hefty home underdogs, setting this spread at high as +8.5 — on the happy side of the underrated key number of eight. That seems like a lot considering Atlanta is playing its best football of the season.
The Falcons have won back-to-back outings, taking down Arizona and Tampa Bay — both victories coming on the road. Monday’s matchup is just the second home game for Atlanta since Week 12, and only the third home stand going back to November 3.
This offense is finally showing the balance it couldn’t find all season, with the running tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier putting defenses on their heels and veteran QB Kirk Cousins showing flashes of past glory, with his full arsenal of receivers healthy.
The Rams have a glaring weakness in the secondary and have made rival QBs look fantastic in recent showings. Los Angeles has allowed a passer rating of 100.0 over the past four games, with those quarterbacks averaging almost 260 yards through the air.
My NFL Underdogs column is 28-18-2 ATS this season for +7.0 units.
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