The American League Championship Series has gone from a potential four-game Tampa Bay sweep to a stunning one-game winner-take-all throwdown.
The Houston Astros rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to force a seventh and deciding game with a 7-4 triumph over the shell-shocked Rays at Petco Park on Friday night. And while the Astros enter Game 7 as slight underdogs, momentum is squarely in their favor against a Tampa team that is struggling in all areas at the worst possible time.
We break down the baseball odds with our best Astros vs. Rays picks and predictions for Game 7 on Saturday, October 17 (8:37 p.m. ET).
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays betting preview
Starting Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. RHP (0-1, 4.09 ERA) vs Charlie Morton RHP (2-0, 0.90 ERA)
McCullers will no doubt be thrilled to get another crack at a Rays lineup that struck for four runs on seven hits in his seven innings of work in Game 2. McCullers did rack up 11 strikeouts in defeat, but was done in by a pair of Tampa home runs – and that has been a big problem for the talented right-hander, who has been taken deep five times over 11 innings in his two playoff starts.
Morton has had no such concerns as he looks to lead the Rays to their second World Series appearance. He’s allowed just one earned run over 11 innings in his two postseason outings and outdueled McCullers in their Monday face-off, limiting Houston to five hits over five innings while fanning five. Morton also hasn't give up a home run in any of his past four starts.
Weather
We're in for another picturesque night at Petco Park, with sunny skies expected and temperatures hovering in the mid-70s by first pitch. Winds will blow from left to right field at just 5 mph, so don't expect much of an impact there. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Moneyline Pick
There isn't much to like about the Astros' chances from a pitching perspective. Morton has already topped McCullers and has been virtually unbeatable in the postseason, while McCullers has been homer-happy despite his elite strikeout rate, and could easily put the Astros in a difficult spot if he can't keep the ball in the park.
But this Houston lineup has caught fire of late, having belted nine home runs in the series and looking every bit like a team ready to return to the World Series. And while Morton fared well his first time facing the Astros, members of the Houston roster are still hitting a collective .288 against him. This should be a close one, but we favor Houston at decent odds.
PREDICTION: Houston ML (+100)
Over/Under Bet
While the National League Championship Series between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers has seen plenty of offense, Game 6 of the ALCS marked the first time in this series that the teams scored more than seven combined runs. And while both teams have proven capable of scoring runs in bunches, the pitching has been simply sensational in the ALCS.
Neither team will hesitate to empty the bullpen if circumstances warrant it (though McCullers went seven innings in his previous start, so Houston would happily have him work deep if he manages his pitch count). You might even see a little Zack Greinke or Tyler Glasnow in this one if either team needs to dig deep, which has us leaning toward the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Astros vs Rays betting card
- Houston ML (+100)
- Under 8 (-110)
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