The Atlanta Braves will look to complete a three-game sweep as they host the Milwaukee Brewers once more on Sunday afternoon.
Milwaukee’s Robert Gasser has let batters get the ball in the air, and that could mean bad news against Atlanta, which I’m taking to complete the sweep in my Brewers vs. Braves predictions.
Read on for full analysis of this afternoon matchup as I share my free MLB picks for Sunday, June 21.
Who will win Brewers vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-131)
Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder hasn’t been missing as many bats as he’d like, but he has generated poor contact.
Opponents are barreling up on just 3.8% of the balls they hit against Elder, and the Milwaukee Brewers likely won’t do any better, as they’ve only generated a 7.1% barrel rate this season.
Brewers starter Robert Gasser has arguably underperformed his metrics, but his 24.6% ground-ball rate is among the lowest in MLB. That’s a bad sign against a Braves team that hits 59.8% of its balls in the air.
I like Atlanta to win at -140 or better.
COVERS INTEL: Gasser has struggled with his sinker this season, allowing a .398 wOBA on the pitch – one that the Braves pull in the air a solid 11.1% of the time.
Brewers vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+101)
As I noted above, Gasser does have some promising advanced metrics that suggest we should expect more from him.
He has a sterling .186 xBA and holds the opposition to a 29.0% hard-hit rate. That’s a measure where Atlanta is pretty mediocre at 40.1%.
Combine that with Elder’s ability to avoid hard contact, and we could be in for a well-pitched game despite the quality of these offenses.
The first two games of this series ended with totals of seven runs or less, and I like the Under again in today’s game as long as the total stays at 8.5.
- ML/RL bets: 13-19, -6.84 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-18, -6.74 units
Brewers vs Braves weather
No rain is expected on a sunny day in Cumberland, GA with calm winds blowing in from right-center.
Brewers vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Brewers +107 | Braves -127
- Run line: Brewers +1.5 | Braves -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Brewers vs Braves trend
The Brewers are 1-4 straight up in Gasser’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.
How to watch Brewers vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Sunday, June 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, BravesVision |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Robert Gasser (0-3, 4.88 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (5-4, 3.15 ERA) |
Brewers vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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