Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts East Division Final Picks and Predictions: Hamilton Has Battle of Ontario Edge

Hamilton dropped a crucial Week 15 game against Toronto, and didn't have to wait long for a chance at redemption. Despite the recent blunder, we think the Ti-Cats can avenge defeat — find out why with our Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts CFL betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 30, 2021 2:07 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The CFL Division Finals will take place this Sunday with the first matchup taking place at BMO Field between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Toronto Argonauts.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close battle between these QEW rivals with CFL betting lines opening with the Argos as slim 1.5-point home favorites.

Here are our best free Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts picks and predictions for the Eastern Final on Sunday, December 5, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET. 

Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts picks

Picks made on 12/4/2021 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts game info

Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Tiger-Cats at Argonauts betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Tiger-Cats: Mason Bennett DE (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Lorenzo Mauldin IV (Out), Frankie Williams DB (Out).

Argonauts: McLeod Bethel-Thompson QB (Probable), Treston Decoud DB (Questionable), John White IV RB (Out), Charleston Hughes DE (Out), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Jamal Campbell OT (Out), Drake Nevis DT (Out), Daniel Braverman WR (Out).

Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Under is 7-1 in Tiger-Cats last 8 road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Argonauts.

Tiger-Cats vs Argonauts predictions

The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a 23-12 win against the Alouettes in the East Semi-Finals. Hamilton's defense was outstanding in that contest, limiting the Alouettes' dominant running game to just 46 yards on the ground while picking up five sacks and forcing four turnovers.

The Ti-Cats have now won five of their last six games, going 5-1 ATS during that span. Their lone loss during that stretch came against the Argos in Week 15, when they fell 31-12 in a crucial contest that clinched a first-round playoff bye for Toronto. 

The Ti-Cats actually lost all three of their matchups with the Argos this year, losing by a single point in Weeks 6 and 10 before that Week 15 stinker. That said, there is reason to think they break that streak on Sunday.

The Argos are loaded with talent in their front seven, but the Ti-Cats have had the superior defense this year against both the run and pass. Hamilton also has the better passing attack with Jeremiah Masoli averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt and posting an efficiency rating of 100.6 this season. McLeod Bethel-Thompson averages 7.5 YPA with a rating of 86.8 and while he's expected to suit up in this game (despite the controversy surrounding him breaking league COVID rules) he was unable to practice this weekend and hasn't played in nearly a month. 

Although neither team is feared for its ground game the Ti-Cats have the edge in that area as well, rushing for more yards per game (100.5 to 90.9) and per carry (5.2 to 4.8). 

At least on paper, the Ti-Cats seem like the better team across the board. So why did they get clobbered in Week 15 with so much on the line? Uncharacteristic sloppy play from the Ti-Cats, with Hamilton losing the turnover battle (including an interception returned for a touchdown), committing crucial penalties, and playing poorly on special teams. The Ti-Cats actually outgained the Argos 408-327 in that contest, just as they did in their previous meeting.

Hamilton finished the regular season with an East Division-best turnover differential of plus-13 and Masoli has thrown only two interceptions in eight starts since coming off the IL. Meanwhile, Argos quarterbacks threw the second-most interceptions of any team in the league while their defense recovered just four fumbles. Expect the Ti-Cats to win the all-important turnover battle this time around and back them to hand the Argos their first home loss of the season.

The weather is something to closely monitor for all CFL playoff games because Canada can get really frickin cold this time of the year. As of Tuesday, there is an 80 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday in Toronto, with temperatures just above freezing and winds expected to average 15 miles per hour.

Cold, wet, and windy weather is certainly the recipe for a low-scoring battle, but even with sunny skies, the Under would be the play.

Including their postseason game against Montreal, the Ti-Cats are holding opponents to just 17.1 points per game this year. They finished the regular season allowing the fewest yards per rush attempt (4.2) and second-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.3) in the CFL.

The Under has cashed in seven of the Ti-Cats' last eight games on the road while going 14-4 in their previous 18 games overall. These rivals have also gone below the total in three of their last five meetings. 

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