Week 15 in the CFL begins on Friday night with a rematch of last week's showdown between the Toronto Argonauts and Montreal Alouettes. The Argos boat raced the Als 39-10 in Toronto last Saturday to improve their record to a league-best 11-1.
They are expected to cruise to another win this week, with CFL betting odds opening with the defending Grey Cup champions as 6.5-point road favorites. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Argonauts vs. Alouettes on September 16.
Argonauts vs Alouettes best odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes picks and predictions
The Montreal Alouettes turned the ball over five times last week, which ultimately ended three drives where they were moving the chains. They also had nine offensive penalties for 101 yards and the CFL's leading receiver Austin Mack was ejected in the first quarter. If the Als can cut down on turnovers and play with more discipline, they will score more points, but good luck slowing down this high-powered Toronto Argonauts attack.
The Argos lead the CFL with 35.2 points per game and 7.54 yards per play. Quarterback Chad Kelly does a terrific job of spreading the ball and leads the CFL in completion percentage (70.1%) and yards per pass attempt (10.9) while ranking second in efficiency rating (114.5).
It also helps that Toronto's stout offensive line has allowed a league-low 10 sacks (14 fewer than second-place Calgary) and the offense has turned the ball over just 15 times. In addition, Argos running back A.J. Ouellette ranks second in the league with 74.1 rushing yards per game and they also have the league's top punt returner in Javon Leake.
With such a balanced attack, the Argos offense has been a model of consistency this year. They've scored more than 30 points in every game this season except one — a contest in which Kelly exited early with an ankle injury. Don't overthink this one and take the Over on Toronto's team total against an Alouettes squad that has surrendered 40 ppg over its last three contests.
My best bet: Argonauts team total Over 30.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
Argonauts vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
Toronto's only straight up loss this season came in the contest where Kelly was injured in the second quarter. The Argos have gone an incredible 10-2 against the spread and have an average scoring margin of +13.0 ppg.
That said, their fast tempo on offense and their ability to score quickly has led to some games where they surrendered plenty of points on defense. Before last week's stingy defensive performance against Montreal, Toronto had surrendered at least 28 points in its previous three contests despite facing two rookie QBs during that span.
The Alouettes have gone 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS this year. This is a team that is clearly better than the bottom-feeders of the CFL but isn't as competitive as Toronto, Winnipeg, or BC. In fact, all six of their defeats this season have been against those teams (including three in a row entering this week) while they've gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the other clubs in the league.
Argonauts vs Alouettes trend to know
Toronto is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Alouettes.
Argonauts vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Friday, September 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Alouettes key injuries
Argonauts: Robertson Daniel DB (Questionable), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Questionable), Cam Phillips WR (Questionable), Jared Brinkman DL (Out), DaShaun Amos DB (Out).
Alouettes: William Stanback RB (Questionable), Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Probable), Reggie White Jr. WR (Questionable), Wes Sutton DB (Probable), Najee Murray DB (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
