A pair of struggling teams square off in Week 16 of the CFL season when the Calgary Stampeders host the Montreal Alouettes on Saturday. The Als enter this showdown having lost four games in a row while the Stamps are just 1-4 in their last five contests.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest as CFL betting lines opened with Montreal as a 2-point road favourite before ticking down to -1. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Stampeders.
Alouettes vs Stampeders best odds
Alouettes vs Stampeders picks and predictions
These lineups are virtually the same as when they clashed in Montreal in Week 8 when the Alouettes won 25-18 as slim 1.5-point home favorites. We're seeing an identical -1.5 line for this rematch which is a bit surprising when you consider that this contest is taking place at McMahon Stadium and the Calgary Stampeders are fresh off a bye.
Keep in mind that the Stamps outgained the Als 310-272 in that contest and a 53-yard interception return from Montreal's Kabion Ento was the deciding factor. It's not like the Als have been any better than the Stamps since then.
Sure, the Als rolled off three more wins against sub-.500 teams but they've since dropped four in a row. And yes the Stamps have lost four of their last five games but they've also gone 4-1 ATS over that span.
Keep in mind, that almost all of those recent losses for both sides have been against the Argos, Blue Bombers, and Lions, the three teams that have clearly separated themselves atop the league. Meanwhile, the Als and Stamps are in the next tier of teams alongside the Roughriders.
The Stampeders offense struggled early in the season but that was largely because quarterback Jake Maier had transformed into an inaccurate, turnover machine. However, he's been much better lately completing 69.5% of his passes for 912 passing yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception over his last three games.
The Stamps have allowed the second-fewest sacks (24) in the CFL and they get to take on an Als side that ranks dead last in sacks with 21. If Maier has time to throw he should be much better with his decision-making than he was in Week 8.
On the other side of the ball, Montreal's biggest strength for much of the year had been the play of its offensive line. However, that line has regressed over the last month and injuries to tackle Landon Rice and guard Kristian Matte have exacerbated that issue.
When it comes right down to it, there isn't much of a gap between these teams in terms of talent and Calgary has the better coaching. On a neutral site with equal rest, I'd install the Als as slim faves but at McMahon Stadium and off a bye, I expected this line to be flipped with the Stamps at around -1.5. That puts the betting value on the home side here.
My best bet: Stampeders ML (+105 at DraftKings)
Alouettes vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Als as 2-point favorites and the line has since shortened to -1.5, with some books moving it to -1. Meanwhile, the total has ticked up from 47 to 48.
The Alouettes are coming off a 23-20 loss to the Argonauts but managed to cover the spread for the first time in four games. The Als have gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in seven games against the Argos, Bombers, and Lions but are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the other teams in the league.
The Stamps are fresh off a bye after having an ugly fourth-quarter collapse against the Elks in Week 14. They were leading 23-7 at the end of the third quarter but allowed Edmonton to score 18 unanswered points. With that defeat, the Stamps are now 1-4 SU in their last five games but they have covered the spread in four straight contests.
Alouettes vs Stampeders trend to know
The Alouettes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Calgary but they've won just one of those games outright. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Stampeders.
Alouettes vs Stampeders game info
|Location:||McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB|
|Date:||Saturday, September 23, 2023|
|Kickoff:||4:00 p.m. ET|
Alouettes vs Stampeders key injuries
Alouettes: Ka'Deem Carey RB (Questionable), Tre Roberson DB (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out), Bryce Bell OT (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out), Hugh Thornton OT (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), James Vaughters DE (Out), Titus Wall DB (Out).
Stampeders: Kristian Matte OL (Questionable), Landon Rice OT (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Alouettes vs Stampeders weather
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