Following a nail-biter over the lowly Hamilton Tiger-Cats, the East-leading Montreal Alouettes fly into the nation’s capital as -5.5 favorites to face the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday night.
The Redblacks provided one of the more painful backdoor covers of the season in their first meeting with the Alouettes, with a last-minute kick return touchdown sending groans throughout the slew of Montreal -11.5 bettors.
My CFL picks this week are highlighted by Alouettes vs. Redblacks predictions, with Montreal expected to avenge that loss in another high-scoring affair on July 31.
Who will win Alouettes vs Redblacks: Alouettes -5.5 (-130)
The Montreal Alouettes were -11.5 favorites over Hamilton a week ago and won by 13, yet they enter their game against the winless Ottawa Redblacks as just -5.5 favorites.
Although Montreal opened at -4.5 on Monday, the line was pushed all the way out to -7.5 by the end of the day. The spread has somewhat inexplicably come back to -5.5 in some places, and that’s a number worth pouncing on.
Montreal led its first matchup handily until the final minute and now faces an Ottawa defence allowing the most points per game (35.5), most yards per game (437.2), and yards per pass allowed (9.97).
I don’t expect this game to be close despite Ottawa coming off the bye, and would be glad to bet this number up to -6.5. A double-digit win for Montreal is certainly in play.
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Alouettes vs Redblacks total prediction: Over 60.5 (-115)
In their first meeting this season, the Alouettes and Redblacks combined for 72 points, but the final score really flattered Ottawa, and Montreal held a large lead up until the final minute of the game.
My model expects Montreal and Ottawa to rack up 112 total offensive plays, both above the league average of 54.8 plays per game. The Alouettes also project for 5.55 YPC and 9.94 YPA on offence, which are the highest projections for any team this weekend.
This line is playable up to 62.5, as Ottawa’s offence started to show some signs of life versus Winnipeg in their last matchup.
COVERS INTEL: These teams have cashed the Over in six of their last seven head-to-head meetings. Alouettes vs Redblacks same-game parlay
Montreal's prolific offence is also extremely efficient, and that edge drives both the spread and game total correlation in favor of this parlay.
Meanwhile, Ottawa’s 35 points against Montreal in its first meeting — along with the 34 the Redblacks put up against Winnipeg in their last game — suggests they’re serviceable enough to help eclipse the full game total in the CFL odds.
Alouettes vs Redblacks SGP
- Alouettes -5.5
- Over 60.5
Alouettes vs Redblacks weather
The forecast in Ottawa calls for warm temperatures hovering around 26C, featuring low winds and clear skies. Everything looks good for the offences here.
Alouettes vs Redblacks odds
- Spread: Alouettes -5.5 (-130) | Redblacks -5.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Alouettes -355 | Redblacks +280
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 (-115) | Under 60.5 (-105)
Alouettes vs Redblacks key injuries
Alouettes: Faion Hicks DB (Questionable), Stevie Scott III RB (Out), Don Callis DB (Out), Justin Lawrence OL (Out), Jerreth Sterns WR (Out).
Redblacks: Benjamin Dobson LB (Out), Zack Pelehos OL (Out), Brett Lauther K (Out).
Alouettes vs Redblacks trend
Montreal has won 12 straight games versus Ottawa dating back to 2022.
How to watch Alouettes vs Redblacks and game info
| Location | TD Place, Ottawa, ON |
| Date | Friday, July 31, 2026 |
| Kick-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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