Xander Zayas defends his newly-won junior middleweight title against rugged contender Abass Baraou in one of our featured boxing attractions this weekend.
Zayas is looking to build momentum and chase down fellow champion Vergil Ortiz Jr. for a unification clash and must get past the once-beaten Baraou in order to do so.
Zayas enters as a -425 favorite in the boxing odds, while Baraou is a +300 underdog. Here are my Zayas vs. Baraou predictions and free betting picks from Puerto Rico.
Zayas vs Baraou prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Zayas moneyline (-425 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Zayas by decision (-200 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Xander Zayas is a world champion at 23 years old, and while that’s a momentous accomplishment, he hasn’t convinced the boxing world that he is truly elite.
The technically-sound Puerto Rican lacks the power and charisma to potentially make him a star, but he’ll get a big fight as long as he keeps winning.
Abass Baraou should serve as a test to see if Zayas can turn things up a notch and insert himself in the thick of things at junior middleweight.
From what we’ve seen from Zayas so far, he relies on angles and footwork, needing to stay mobile and active as he doesn’t possess much punching power. He gets his shots off fast, fires in combinations, and resets, keeping his opponents out of position while remaining evasive and generally hard to hit.
A bad habit he seems to have is that he tends to clinch, which will be troublesome as he doesn’t have the power or the same slickness on the inside as he does fighting from a distance.
Baraou will be the puncher, but he’ll have a hard time trying to pin Zayas down. The German fighter is willing to trust his chin as he stays in the pocket and punches with his opponent instead of regrouping and restarting his attack.
He’s a stubborn fighter who isn’t going to stop coming forward and is well-conditioned, which may be problematic for Zayas, as he won’t have the power to discern or stop him.
It will be hard for Baraou to win this fight as Zayas is fighting in front of a home crowd and doesn’t get hit clean often. While Baraou has done a solid job in the European scene, he doesn’t show the tools or the style to stymie Zayas’ movement and will have trouble pinning him down while Zayas darts around the ring and pot shots him from the outside.
This will be a "bull vs. matador" fight in the purest sense, with Zayas’ agility being the difference maker.
Best best analysis
Zayas’ lack of power will be a problem against the true elite of the junior middleweight division, but Baraou represents the mid-tier level of opponents he can beat with his slickness alone.
Expect Zayas to maintain a safe range for the duration of the fight, keeping his distance and using his jab to set up flurries to outwork Baraou over the course of 12 rounds.
Xander Zayas vs Abass Baraou odds
| Method of victory | Xander Zayas | Abass Baraou |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -450 | +320 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +450 | +1100 |
| Win by points or decision | -210 | +500 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of January 31.
Xander Zayas vs Abass Baraou tale of the tape
| Zayas | Baraou | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Junior Middleweight | Weight Class | Junior Middleweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 22-0 | Record | 17-1 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 9 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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