Fabio Wardley has positioned himself as a key player in the heavyweight division. Still, if he wants a title shot, he'll need to get past former champion Daniel Dubois in a high-stakes fight to determine where the division will be headed in the years to come.
This is a 50/50 fight pitting two prime heavyweight contenders, and my Wardley vs. Dubois predictions expect things to go deep.
Wardley vs Dubois prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Wardley moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Wardley to win in rounds 7-9 (+500 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Fabio Wardley announced his arrival in the top tier of the division with a savage slugfest against Joseph Parker, overcoming the ex-champion in an incredible fight.
The 31-year-old can double down on his momentum if he can get past Daniel Dubois, who is coming off a second loss to Oleksandr Usyk and ceding his IBF title to him.
Despite the opposing outcomes, these two are on the bubble, and the winner will likely be in the short-term title picture.
Wardley stepped up his game in a big way, overcoming the streaking Parker and overwhelming him with a tremendous display of grit and strength.
Parker gave him plenty of chances to land his straight right hand, and Wardley's strategy doesn't consist of anything more complex than a pawing jab that creates an opening for the straight right.
However, Wardley has shown grit and growth, evolving from a tough European circuit fighter to a legitimate title contender, and this will be the key advantage he has over Dubois.
Dubois managed to bounce back from his first loss to Usyk by putting together some come-from-behind knockout victories before absolutely demolishing Anthony Joshua to win a vacant IBF title in an upset. Despite that momentum, Dubois performed worse against Usyk in the rematch than in the first fight, suffering another stoppage defeat.
While Dubois is athletic and explosive, he tends to lose confidence if his shots aren't landing with effect. Wardley needs to bring the fight to Dubois, roughing him up to the body and forcing him to guess on the outside.
Blow for blow, Dubois is the better puncher, but Wardley has a solid chin and has shown better consistency under fire. It's hard to imagine Dubois keeping Wardley off him for 12 rounds, and any chances he'll take will have to be early. Wardley is the pick.
Best best analysis
Dubois's only chance will come in the first three rounds, where he'll need to score a knockdown or open a compromising cut. If he fails to do that, Wardley will walk him down and sap his confidence and stamina behind his pressure and thudding shots.
Eventually, Dubois will wilt, and Wardley stops him before the championship rounds.
COVERS INTEL: All three of Dubois' losses have come inside the distance.
Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois odds
| Method of victory | Fabio Wardley | Daniel Dubois |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -125 | +100 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +130 | +170 |
| Win by points or decision | +600 | +550 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 6.
Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois tale of the tape
| Wardley | Dubois | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-5 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 78 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 20-0-1 | Record | 22-3 |
| 19 | Wins by KO | 21 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
