The biggest boxing fight in Japanese history is upon us as Naoya Inoue defends his undisputed junior featherweight title against regional rival and fellow pound-for-pound star Junto Nakatani.
This fight will cement the winner as a bona fide legend, and Inoue enters as a -400 favorite ahead of Saturday's clash.
Although Inoue is set to face the best opponent he’s seen in years, Nakatani will have to pull out all the stops to have a fighting chance.
Read more in my Inoue vs. Nakatani predictions and free betting picks for May 2.
Inoue vs Nakatani prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Inoue moneyline (-400 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Inoue to win by decision (+175 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
The long-awaited clash between these top-tier Japanese battlers is finally here, and it’s coming at a time when Naoya Inoue’s dominance may be starting to wane. Admittedly, both fighters are coming off ho-hum wins in their previous bouts, but it doesn’t take away that this is a massive fight with pound-for-pound implications.
Inoue comes into this fight as the older, smaller, and technically superior fighter. However, his defense is starting to show cracks and has been dropped by Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas.
Most recently, Inoue has won his last two fights by decision, which is the more troubling sign that his vaunted power has started to fade. Regardless, the prime source of Inoue’s power has been his excellent technical base and his ability to switch his attack rhythm to keep opponents mentally and physically off balance.
Junto Nakatani had to dig deep against Sebastian Hernandez, with that fight coming down to the wire in a tit-for-tat slugfest. While Nakatani was known for his own significant punching power, he wasn’t able to dent Hernandez, and he also couldn’t keep the Mexican off him. That said, Inoue is closer to Nakatani in size, and the same blows that landed on Hernandez will likely cause more damage to his compatriot.
Nakatani’s leaky defense and tendency to brawl will also play right into Inoue’s heavy hands. With Inoue starting to slow down and seemingly be content in taking fights the distance, he’ll avoid fighting and stick more to boxing.
That tactical awareness will be enough to get Inoue past Nakatani, whose overly eager offensive approach won’t serve him well on Saturday.
Best best analysis
With Inoue settling into a more tactical groove over his last few fights and Nakatani only having been dropped once in his career, this fight looks like it’s going to be a war of attrition that goes the distance.
Inoue hasn’t fallen off enough to the point where Nakatani will overwhelm him, and I expect him to outbox Nakatani and secure a decision by the final bell.
COVERS INTEL: Should Junto Nakatani score the upset, he would become just the second four-division champion out of Japan.
Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | Junto Nakatani |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -400 | +300 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +110 | +550 |
| Win by points or decision | +175 | +800 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 2.
Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani tale of the tape
| Inoue | Nakatani | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Junior featherweight | Weight Class | Junior featherweight |
| 67.5 inches | Reach | 68.5 inches |
| 32-0 | Record | 32-0 |
| 27 | Wins by KO | 24 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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