Canelo Alvarez returns to the ring and has his sights set on Dmitry Bivol’s WBA light heavyweight title this Saturday.
The much-anticipated bout is scheduled for 12 rounds in the light heavyweight division at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Canelo hopes to become a two-time light heavyweight titlist at the expense of the undefeated Bivol.
Alvarez has looked like a monster since leaving the middleweight division, scoring four stoppages in five fights across super middleweight and light heavyweight, and is favored at -430.
Bivol has defended his title eight times since 2017, but the crafty Russian is a +300 underdog.
Here are our free boxing picks and predictions for Alvarez vs. Bivol on May 7.
Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol odds
| Method of victory | Canelo Alvarez | Dmitry Bivol |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -550 | +350 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +280 | +850 |
| Win by points or decision | -140 | +600 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of May 3, 2022.
Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol betting predictions
Picks made on May 2. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol betting preview
After becoming the undisputed champion at super middleweight, Alvarez spent little time plotting his next move before settling on a two-fight package with Bivol.
Despite their history, Bivol is a tougher opponent for Alvarez now than the aging Golovkin. Alvarez’s recent performances suggest that he is in his prime. He’s hitting harder, fighting smarter, and putting together punishing wins over respectable opponents.
The clinics he put on Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant last year emphasized that Alvarez is the total package. If Alvarez can’t get bombed out, he needs to be outsmarted. Bivol is up to the task as an accomplished amateur and the best technical fighter Alvarez has faced since Erislandy Lara in 2014.
The undefeated Russian does not make a lot of mistakes, fights at a disciplined pace, and defends well. Many of Alvarez’s opponents since Lara have only come with a seek and destroy strategy, so it will be interesting seeing how Alvarez deals with a fighter who will resort to brains instead of brawn.
Going back to his previous light heavyweight fight against Sergey Kovalev, Alvarez struggled against the faded Kovalev’s methodical approach. It wasn’t until Kovalev left himself open for Alvarez’s money punch, the counter left hook, that calamity struck. With fewer miles on his engine and a more conservative style, Bivol may not fall into that trap.
Then again, Bivol might just be too conventional for his own good here. The current version of Alvarez can change gears and implement different strategies at any time. If Bivol wants to strictly keep this a boxing match, he’ll get outworked by the faster fighter.
Should he abandon the script and try to brawl with Alvarez, he’s going to get clobbered.
Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Alvarez to win
To beat Alvarez, a fighter needs to be able to be big enough to force him against the ropes, fast enough to keep him off-balance, and strong enough to stay on their feet when he catches them with a big shot.
Bivol is a traditional Eastern European fighter who boxes well but sticks too closely to one singular plan. He is robotic in that he lacks strong head movement, resorts to a traditional 1-2 combination on offense, and seldom targets the body.
For Bivol, Plan B is Plan A again. Alvarez has too many tools at his disposal to lose to such a predictable and formulaic opponent, even with the perceived physical disadvantages between the two. While it’s true that Bivol is a sharp boxer, he’s never faced an opponent as good as Alvarez.
Coming from near obscurity to perform in front of a raucous crowd may be unnerving for the champion. Considering all these factors, it’s hard seeing Bivol spring an upset. He’ll be too passive early and doesn’t have the power or aggression to make something happen late.
Alvarez is a special kind of fighter. Bivol is a by-the-numbers titlist. Great beats good each time out, and that’s why Alvarez will add Bivol’s title to his collection by fight’s end.
Prediction: Alvarez to win (-550 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Alvarez by points or decision
It would be a fool’s errand for Alvarez to wantonly attack Bivol out the gates. Not only can Bivol avoid Alvarez’s early charges, but Alvarez tends to come on stronger as the fight progresses.
While Alvarez usually turns up the heat before the halfway point, we expect Alvarez to slow things down a bit in this one. Alvarez will be the aggressor early on, bullying his way inside to land body shots to test Bivol’s resolve and taste his power. He could very well sweep the first four rounds on activity alone before deciding how to go about the second half of the fight.
Bivol has never been stopped or hurt in a bout, so Alvarez might opt to stay busy as opposed to taking a risk. Once Bivol realizes he’s behind, he’ll surrender to Alvarez while staying on his feet. We like Alvarez to outclass Bivol, but a stoppage isn’t in the cards here.
Taking Alvarez by decision at -140 is a solid play.
Pick: Alvarez by points or decision (-140 at FanDuel)
