Saul “Canelo” Alvarez looks to add to his legacy – and trophy room - when he faces IBF title holder Caleb Plant in a super middleweight bout in Las Vegas on November 6.
Alvarez, the reigning unified super middleweight champ, is a large betting favorite for this fight, with boxing odds pricing Canelo at -1,000 odds. But Plant (+600) is no cakewalk. The American is undefeated in 21 fights and enters Saturday with a decisive size and reach advantage.
Here’s our betting preview and free fight picks for Alvarez vs. Plant.
Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant betting predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant betting preview
Boxing fans didn’t have to wait until fight night for the sparks to fly between these foes. Alvarez and Plant threw hands at the press conference back in September, with Plant walking away bloodied with a cut under his right eye. If that brief dust-up holds any weight, that could be how this fight shakes out on Saturday.
Alvarez has been to hell and back during his career, stepping in the ring with greats such as Floyd Mayweather Jr., Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto and, of course, his wars with Gennady Golovkin. But it’s his recent pace that impresses me most, with this being his sixth fight since 2019 (pandemic be damned!) and his third fight of this calendar year. At a point in his career when most boxers are sunsetting their legacy, Canelo is dialing it up.
At 31 years old and 59 professional bouts (56-1-2, 38 KOs), Canelo is pound-for-pound one of the toughest boxers in the business – both physically and mentally – and does a great job wearing down opponents, cutting off the ring, and getting up close and personal with crushing blows. Alvarez has won his last two outings via corner stoppage and just two his last six fights have gone to the judges’ cards.
Plant comes in at 6-foot-1 with a reach of 72 inches, eclipsing Canelo at 5-foot-9 with a reach of 70.5 inches. However, Alvarez has been fighting bigger men his entire career. He did fail to put away the lanky Callum Smith (6-foot-3, 78-inch reach) back in December 2020, but more than doubled his bigger foe in total punches landed (214 to 99) despite throwing 45 fewer attempts.
That said, Plant is a step up compared to Alvarez’s recent competition and is a much more refined boxer than his Mexican counterpart. The 29-year-old is quick on his feet and uses his speed and length to keep foes at bay while working behind the jab to set up power punches. How much power is on those punches? That’s the big question heading into this fight, as Plant has won just 12 of his 21 showings by way of knockout.
Canelo Alvarez vs Caleb Plant picks
Alvarez by KO, TKO, or DQ (-160)
With respect to Plant, Canelo doesn’t want this one to see the judges’ cards. While he defeated Billy Joe Saunders with a corner stoppage in Round 8 last time out, Alvarez wasn’t rolling over his opponent and lost the previous two rounds before that eighth-round finish.
Plant will be happy sticking and moving, trying to keep plenty of distance between he and Canelo’s crushing shots. But how long can that last? Alvarez isn’t one to press action and will let the fight come to him, stalking Plant and cutting off the ring and taking gas out of Plant’s tank with those trademark body blows. Once this fight hits Round 8, Plant will be a step slower and Canelo will go in for the kill over the next few rounds.
Over 8.5 rounds (-120)
Plant is going to be very active in the opening rounds, using his footwork and speed to allude Alvarez. He will be very cautious to avoid a brawl with Canelo, who is more than comfortable going to a dark place and trading shots.
But with Plant dancing about, Canelo will be patience, not pressing but slowly walking down his target and do punishment where he can – investing those shots into the later rounds. Plant has had just one of his last eight fights end before Round 10 and two of Canelo’s last seven outings have wrapped up before Round 8.
The one thing that does worry me with this Over/Under prop is that fragile right eye of Plant, which was cut during the presser fight. It will be a target for Canelo’s jab, seeing if he can pop it open again, but Plant is sound defensively and his length should stunt those shots.
Alvarez wins Rounds 9-12 (+330)
By this point in Saturday’s fight, Plant will have been running for almost 30 minutes. He will undoubtedly have received some punishment from Alvarez and his arms will be getting heavy, as Plant is a high-volume puncher. In his last two fights, he's thrown 584 (12 rounds) and 612 punches (10 rounds) while landing 31 and 33 percent of those attempts.
If Plant has added any extra beef to his jab, Alvarez could be worse for wear as well. And as we mentioned, the scorecards may be closer pending Plant being able to use his length and quickness to pick his spots and win rounds.
Come the championship rounds, Canelo will be feeling some pressure to end it early. Luckily, the deep water of the double-digit rounds is where Alvarez finds another gear. He’ll leave no question, putting this one in the books somewhere between Round 9 and 12.
