Virginia knows a thing or two about being knocked off by an upstart team – so the Cavaliers will leave nothing to chance as they face the Auburn Tigers in an NCAA Tournament semifinal Saturday evening. Virginia's impressive run to the Final Four has served as a fitting rebound after the Cavaliers became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the Round of 64 a year ago. But while Virginia is a comfortable favorite to reach the national championship game, the Tigers are a force to be reckoned with, having already knocked off the Kansas Jayhawks, North Carolina Tar Heels and Kentucky Wildcats to reach the Final Four. **video
AUBURN TIGERS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (-5.5, 131)
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It's quite something that the Cavaliers have made it this far considering their pattern of slow starts. Virginia has trailed by at least four points in the opening half of all four tournament games so far – and that won't fly against a Tigers team that has played just one subpar first half so far (though you could argue that leading New Mexico State by only three points at the break wasn't a great outcome.) Virginia's offense has been dormant in the early stages of games – and while the defense has more than compensated, we like Auburn to do enough on offense to win the battle to 20 points.
PREDICTION: Race to 20 points - Auburn (+150)
FIRST HALF BET
It should surprise no one that, with a first-half Saturday total of 60.5 as the backdrop, these teams have come at the 1H number in completely different ways. Auburn has gone above that threshold in all four games it has played so far, while the Cavaliers have surpassed that total just once. There's a lot to like about that Tigers offense, which has averaged better than 41 first-half points in 2018-19, but the Cavaliers will almost certainly look to slow down the pace to a crawl. Combine that with the nerves of being on such a big stage, and there's a lot to like about the 1H under in this one.
PREDICTION: Under 60.5 1H total (-110)
TEAM/PLAYER BET
The Virginia team total is an interesting potential play, depending on how you think this game plays out. On one hand, Auburn has surrendered at least 71 points in all four of its victories – but on the other hand, those wins came over four teams that all ranked in the top-100 in scoring on the season; Virginia comes in ranked 211th. And due in no small part to their sluggish starts, the Cavs have scored more than 70 points just twice – and one of those games went to overtime. This game should be a lower-scoring affair than Auburn's other contests, and we like the Tigers to hold Virginia below its team total.
PREDICTION: Virginia under 68.5 points (-110)
FULL-GAME TOTAL
These teams come into this one on completely different totals tracks, which makes the over/under play here an intriguing one. Auburn comes in having reeled off five consecutive over conversions and is a perfect 7-0 to the over in its last seven vs. teams with a win rate above 60 percent. Virginia is 6-1 to the under in its past seven matchups with SEC teams, and 2-7 O/U in its past nine non-conference games. A total this low will cause a sweat for under bettors, but this has the feel of a low-scoring affair – so don't hesitate to consider the under here.
PREDICTION: Under 131 (-110)
FULL-GAME SIDE
Both teams are playing inspired basketball after struggling in their tournament openers, and have been sensational cover options down the stretch. The Tigers are a red-hot 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games, and 5-1 ATS in their past six against teams with records above .600. The Cavaliers are 13-5 ATS in their past 18 games following a successful cover, and have made good in eight of their last 11 non-conference games. But Virginia hasn't been a great tournament option (2-6 ATS in its last eight), while Auburn has looked great against elite programs. We like the lower-seeded team to cover here.
PREDICTION: Auburn +5.5 (-110)
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