We’ve got conference tournaments and late regular-season games in college basketball, and an interesting matchup on the NBA hardwood tonight, too. Covers checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook BetDSI.eu. **video
College
No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5
Virginia aims to keep plowing toward perhaps the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. The Cavaliers (26-2 SU, 18-6-1 ATS), owners of the second-best ATS mark in the nation, boatraced Pittsburgh 66-37 as a 19-point road favorite Saturday.
Louisville is trying to shore up its postseason credentials after going through an ill-timed 2-5 SU stretch (2-4-1 ATS). The Cardinals (19-10 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) ended that skid with a 75-68 victory at Virginia Tech as a 4-point underdog Saturday.
“Not any sharp interest here, so the oddsmakers did a good job with this side,” Cooley said. “The public is supporting Virginia to the tune of 82 percent. The little bit of sharp money that has shown up for this game is on the over, and of course the public loves the low total, so they are taking the over as well.”
The total opened at 124.5 and dropped to 123. William Hill US opened the Cavaliers -4 and hadn’t moved off that number, while the total went from 124.5 to 123.5.
“Not a lot of money on that game yet, but I think it’ll pick up,” Bogdanovich said. Tip time is 8 p.m. Eastern.
Arizona’s program is swirling in controversy, but coach Sean Miller held a news conference earlier today suggesting he will return to the sideline for this 10 p.m. ET clash. The Wildcats (23-7 SU, 11-16 ATS) lost at Oregon 98-93 in overtime as a 4.5-point pup Saturday. Miller was not on the bench for that game, in the wake of allegations he was wiretapped discussing a $100,000 payment to land current freshman star Deandre Ayton.
Stanford enters on a three-game winning streak, but has cashed in just one of its last five games and has virtually no NCAA Tournament hopes. The Cardinal (16-13 SU, 14-15 ATS) edged Washington State 86-84 Saturday as a hefty 12-point home chalk.
“Bettors don't appear to be scared off by the drama surrounding Arizona,” Cooley said. “Both sides of the betting spectrum are hammering the Wildcats, as we have more than 75 percent of the money on that side. The public will probably continue to pile on, so this could be our biggest decision of the day.”
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Penn State Nittany Lions – Open: -5.5; Move: None
Penn State needs a strong Big Ten Tournament run at Madison Square Garden to have any chance at the Big Dance, after losing its last three games. The Nittany Lions (19-12 SU, 14-12-1 ATS), who got a bye into the Big Ten’s second round, ended the regular season with a 76-64 loss catching 3 points at Nebraska.
Northwestern, the darling of last year’s NCAA Tournament, has only one shot at getting back: win the Big Ten Tourney. The Wildcats (15-16 SU, 11-17 ATS) enter this 6:30 p.m. ET matchup on a six-game SU nosedive (1-5 ATS), including a 77-70 loss at Iowa as a 4-point pup Sunday.
“There’s very little money on this game yet,” Bogdanovich said. “A little Penn State money, but that’s about it.”
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 23 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders – Open: -4; Move: -4.5
Middle Tennessee State could wrap up the Conference USA regular-season title with a victory in this 8 p.m. ET showdown. The Blue Raiders (23-5 SU, 15-10 ATS) are on a 10-game SU spree (7-3 ATS), including a 74-59 bouncing of Alabama-Birmingham as a 7-point home fave Saturday.
Second-place Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 66-62 home loss to the Blue Raiders as a 5.5-point ‘dog on Jan. 20. The Hilltoppers (22-7 SU, 18-9 ATS) have won six in a row SU and four in a row ATS, rolling over Old Dominion 88-66 giving 3.5 points at home Saturday.
“Great game, maybe the best game of the day,” Bogdanovich said. “Bettors are leaning a little bit toward Middle Tennessee, we’re a little high on the Blue Raiders.”
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers – Open: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3
Cleveland is the worst team in the NBA for bettors, while Philadelphia is among the top five, and LeBron James and Co. might be reverting to that form after a nice 5-1 SU and ATS run. The Cavaliers (36-24 SU, 19-40-1 ATS) got thumped at home by San Antonio 110-94 as a 4.5-point chalk Sunday, then outlasted Brooklyn 129-123 Tuesday, but failed to cover the 10-point spread at home.
Philly followed a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) by losing its last two games. The 76ers (32-27 SU, 32-25-2 ATS) lost by 15 at Washington on Sunday, then fell at Miami on Tuesday 102-101 to push as a 1-point underdog.
“There’s a decent amount bet on the game so far,” Bogdanovich said of action for the 8 p.m. ET meeting. “We’re a little heavy on the Cavaliers, but nothing major. Philly is a pretty good public team too. I expect this to be a pretty well-bet game by tipoff.”
BetDSI also opened the Cavs -2.5 and has been steady at -3 since this morning.
“We’re seeing some sharp action on both sides of this spread, and on the total, but it's balanced,” Cooley said. “The squares are on LeBron, per usual, so we've got the majority of that handle (85 percent) on the home squad. Looking forward to watching a really good game between these quality clubs.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
