The Cardinals and Braves open up the Division Series action Thursday night in Atlanta, while the Nationals look to ride the momentum of their wild card win into Game 1 against the Dodgers. We break down the odds for these playoff games, as we bring you in-depth analysis, betting trends and fearless predictions in our MLB Postseason Line Drive. **video
DOUBLE-PLAY PICKS
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT ATLANTA BRAVES (-135, 9 @ BETAMERICA)
The Cardinals and Braves open the division series action in the 2019 postseason Thursday afternoon at SunTrust Park in Atlanta.
St. Louis captured its first NL Central title since 2015 by going 91-71, and while other teams in the NL East were getting all the hype, Atlanta stormed to back-to-back division titles thanks to its 97-65 record. Game 1 sees Miles Mikolas toe the rubber against Dallas Keuchel.
Mikolas is an interesting choice for the Cards, considering his splits. The right-hander has mostly pitched well over the last month, but his numbers on the road are a little concerning. Mikolas has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 when pitching away from Busch Stadium.
Meanwhile, this is exactly why the Braves brought in Keuchel. To start Game 1 of a playoff series. And Keuchel is peaking at the right time. The southpaw owns a 2.55 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over his last nine starts.
Keuchel now faces a Cardinals team, that while it went 47-27 in the second half of the year, has actually been one of the worst hitting teams since then. The Cards are hitting just .247 as a team since the All-Star break. Let’s put it this way. The Tigers and Royals had better averages over that span. So, yeah. Not great.
This is also Mikolas’ postseason debut, while Keuchel was a key member of the 2017 World Series title with the Astros. Experience will matter here.
Pick: Braves -135
WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-170, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)
The Nationals are coming off a thrilling 4-3 wild card game victory over the Brewers. And their reward? Travel across the country to take on the team that notched the most wins in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
With the Nats having to use both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in the wild card game that leaves Patrick Corbin to toe the rubber in Game 1. While the Dodgers, in a bit of a surprise move, will hand the ball to Walker Buehler.
Buehler got the call ahead of southpaws Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu. That’s probably for several reasons. One, the right-hander has sparkling numbers at home (2.86 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). Two, the Nats don’t hit right-handers as well as lefties. And three, he’s probably the most fiery competitor the Dodgers have in their rotation.
Corbin on the other hand might have been the Nats hottest starter heading into the postseason before his season ending tune-up against Cleveland did not go to plan. Prior to that, the lefty had allowed three or fewer earned runs over his last 18 starts, pitching to a 2.24 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
Additionally, with the Dodgers lefty-heavy lineup not hitting left-handed pitching overly well, we like this one to be tightly contested through the first half of the game.
Pick: Under 4 First Five Innings (-120)
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POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals (14-7, 3.25 ERA, $354): A little more on Corbin. He also has plenty of experience against the Dodgers thanks to his time in Arizona. Here are his runs allowed in his last five starts against Los Angeles: 0, 0, 1, 1, and 0. Pretty good. That equates to a 0.59 ERA to go along with an 0.82 WHIP.
With those kind of numbers, the Washington runline -1.5 (-150) looks like a nice little wager. And heck, the Nats +145 isn’t crazy. They’re riding a lot of momentum after that wild card win and the Dodgers haven’t played a meaningful game in a long time.
THREE STRIKES
NON-MIGRATING RED BIRDS
The Cardinals got hot in the second half of the season to finish the season with 91 wins and secure the NL Central crown, but most of that success came at home. Their 41 road wins was by far the fewest by a division winner this season and only the now eliminated Brewers had a worse road record. With the Braves being a solid home team, we like the Cards to stay Under their team total of 4.
THE LIGHTS AREN’T TOO BRIGHT
Walker Buehler made his postseason debut last season in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves. And the game definitely did not go as he envisioned it, allowing five runs (albeit on two hits) in five innings of work. But Buehler got better with each postseason start, culminating with an impressive seven-inning, two-hit, shutout performance in Game 3 of the World Series against the Red Sox. We’re leaning towards the Under 2.5 (-190) on Buehler’s earned runs allowed in what we expect to be a close ball game.
LOW LOW SCORES IN LA LA LAND
We’ve talked a lot about starting pitchers in this matchup, and why not? These are two of the best rotations in baseball and they have clearly had the edge when they face off at Dodger Stadium. The Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 games the Nationals have played in Los Angeles. The Under is also 11-0-2 in Buehler’s last 13 homes starts against teams with a winning record. The number is low, but we’re looking at the Under 7.
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