As well as Paige Bueckers has played to open her rookie season, the Phoenix Mercury will still have the best player on the court in this rematch from a loss to the Dallas Wings on Thursday. Still, is Alyssa Thomas enough to justify Phoenix being a 6-point favorite?
My Wings vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks actually put faith in the lesser team tonight simply because the home team is too shorthanded. Tip comes at 10 ET on Monday, July 7.
Wings vs Mercury predictions
My Wings vs Mercury best bet: Wings +6 (-110 at Caesars)
The Phoenix Mercury ideal has propelled them to the second spot in the WNBA standings. Combining Kahleah Copper’s all-around game with Alyssa Thomas’ playmaking is enough to elevate Satou Sabally into an elite scorer.
The problem has been injuries. Both Copper and Sabally will be sidelined tonight, and Thomas is not enough to justify this 6-point spread, as brilliant as she is.
On Thursday, Phoenix was an 11.5-point favorite at Dallas, only to lose by nine. Normally, homecourt advantage would have justified moving this spread to about -15 for tonight, but the absences of Copper and Sabally obviously forced movement the other way.
It's not that either is necessarily worth 4.5 points. It's that missing that combination costs the Mercury exponentially. They are worth more than their sum total.
Thomas could dictate this game to a win single-handedly, but she could also be forced to go bucket-for-bucket with Paige Bueckers. And guess who wins that suggestion?
All due respect to the best triple-double threat in WNBA history, Bueckers is a better scorer already.
Paige Bueckers pick: Buckets for Bueckers
My best bet
Over 19.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Bueckers has cleared this prop in five of her last six games despite some shooting struggles. After starting the year 10-forr-24 (41.7%) in her first eight games, Bueckers has gone just 6-for-22 from deep (27.3%) in her last six games. And yet, she's kept scoring.
Phoenix may have the No. 5 defensive rating in the WNBA, but losing Sabally and, more notably in this context, Copper harms that claim.
Bueckers poured in 23 against the Mercury on Thursday. She may match that tonight.
Wings vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Wings +6
Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
Paige Buecekers Over 1.5 threes
Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points
Despite those shooting struggles, Bueckers has hit multiple 3-pointers in each of her last two games. That much of this SGP should hardly need explanation when pairing it with her Over 19.5 points.
Adding Alyssa Thomas to enjoy a scoring binge is simply an acknowledgement that the Mercury need points from somewhere with Copper and Sabally sidelined.
Wings vs Mercury odds
Wings vs Mercury live odds
Wings vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +10.5 | Phoenix -10.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +375 | Phoenix -500
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Wings vs Mercury trend
The Wings are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.25 points even when including the pair of ATS losses. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Mercury.
How to watch Wings vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, 7-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, KPHE |
Wings vs Mercury latest injuries
Wings: DiJonai Carrington G (Out), Ty Harris G (Out), Arike Ogunbowale G (Out), Maddy Siegrist F (Out).
Mercury: Kahleah Copper G (Out), Lexi Held G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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