The Phoenix Mercury will look to get back on track as 6.5-point underdogs in tonight's rematch vs. the Dallas Wings at the Mortgage Matchup Center.
My Wings vs. Mercury prediction calls for Alyssa Thomas to enjoy another productive night as a facilitator after racking up double-digit dimes in her last two matchups with Dallas.
Find out more in my WNBA picks for Sept. 21, with tip-off at 10 p.m. ET on USA Network,
TOP PICK
Wings vs Mercury prediction: Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 assists
With 8.4 assists per game, Alyssa Thomas trails only Caitlin Clark (8.5) for the league lead. She’s handed out eight more dimes in 26 of 40 games overall and 13 of 20 games at home — good for 65%.
Thomas leads the W in assists over her last eight games, averaging 9.4 per tilt and hitting the Over on this line seven times. In that span, she’s reached at least eight assists in five straight home games.
Thomas produced 10 and 11 dimes in two tilts at Dallas, and the Dallas Wings’ defense is more generous on the road, allowing the eighth-most assists. This is playable to 9.5, making it a strong value.
COVERS INTEL: Among players averaging at least 20 minutes per game, Alyssa Thomas ranks first in assist percentage at a healthy 42.8%. Across her last eight games, that number has ballooned to 47.5%.
TOP PICK
Wings vs Mercury combo
The Wings will reportedly focus on limiting the workloads of Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and Jessica Shepard in the final games of the week, so the edge goes to Phoenix Mercury here.
Picking the Mercury to cover is the safer wager, but I like them to snap the Wings’ six-game win streak after covering on the road.
Phoenix was within two points with 80 seconds to go on Saturday, and if it can keep it close tonight, home crowd advantage could push the Mercury over the top late in a tight contest.
Both games have gone Under at Dallas, but Phoenix is 13-7 to the Over at home, and Dallas is 10-9 to the Over on the road. Phoenix’s offense should find easier footing, and even a limited Wings Big 3 should put up enough points to push this one to the Over.
Wings vs Mercury combo
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 assists
- Mercury moneyline
- Over 173.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
TOP PICK
Wings vs Mercury player prop: Kahleah Copper 20+ points
Kahleah Copper is averaging a career-best 21.3 ppg, and she’s scored 20+ in half of her 38 appearances. Copper’s home/road splits have been cavernous: 24.6 ppg at home vs. 18 on the road.
Copper has hit the Over on this line in 12 of 19 games in Phoenix, and before her three-game absence, she averaged 30.7 points across her last three home outings.
The Wings have surrendered only 79.7 ppg at home (second-fewest), but they’ve given up the sixth-most on the road at 91. Dallas’ defensive rating is second at home and 14th on the road, setting Copper up with a favorable matchup. Play to 55%.
- Top picks: 35-38, -6.45 units
- Combos: 8-65, -22.5 units
Wings vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Wings -6.5 | Mercury +6.5
- Moneyline: Wings 68% | Mercury 33%
- Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5
Wings vs Mercury trend
The home team has won seven straight games in the head-to-head series. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Wings vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Ariz. |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Wings vs Mercury latest injuries
Wings: Alanna Smith (Out).
Mercury: Kara Dunn (Probable), Kelsey Plum (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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