WNBA Predictions and Moneyline Picks: Monday, Sept. 21

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 21, 2026 , 09:57 AM ET • 4 min read

It's a short two-game WNBA slate tonight, and we're eyeing the favorites to prevail, including Paige Bueckers leading the Wings over the Mercury.

Paige Bueckers Dallas Wings WNBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers looks on.

The WNBA offers a two-game schedule that's a combo opportunity waiting to happen for my WNBA moneyline picks.

The Atlanta Dream have been road warriors since the All-Star break, and I like them as 55% favorites to beat the New York Liberty. Meanwhile, the Dallas Wings at 68% are in a good spot to sweep their season series with the Phoenix Mercury.

Here are my WNBA picks for Monday, Sept. 21.

WNBA moneyline picks: Sept. 21

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup Kalshi
Probability
Dream Dream vs Liberty Liberty Dream 55%
Wings Wings vs Mercury Mercury Wings 68%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert WNBA moneyline picks: Sept. 21

Dream vs Liberty pick: Dream

Kalshi probability: 55%

The Atlanta Dream enter Monday night in dominant form, going 8-2 over their last 10 games with a league-best +18.9 net rating.

Atlanta has also been elite defensively, holding opponents to 81.6 points per game, 42.9% shooting, and 32.3% from three during that stretch.

The Dream are 13-7 on the road overall and 6-1 away from home since the All-Star break, averaging 94.0 points with a +14.1 scoring margin. The New York Liberty are 7-3 over their last 10, but the team has posted a much lower +6.4 net rating.

The Liberty are also 0-1 at home on zero days of rest, scoring just 74 points in that spot. Atlanta owns the stronger setup here and is playable to 60%.

Wings vs Mercury pick: Wings

Kalshi probability: 68%

The Dallas Wings have already beaten the Phoenix Mercury twice this season, including an 87-82 victory two nights ago, and the Wings bring the stronger overall profile into Monday’s matchup.

Dallas averages 89.6 points on the road while shooting 47.2% from the field and handing out 22.2 assists per game.

Phoenix has Kahleah Copper available and remains dangerous at the top of its rotation. But the Mercury still lack a dependable third scorer and are just 6-14 at home.

With Dallas posting stronger offensive numbers and already taking two wins in this matchup, the Wings are the better moneyline side at up to 70%.

Today's WNBA moneyline combo

Dream moneyline

Wings moneyline

Atlanta and Dallas make a strong moneyline combo because both clubs offer clear matchup advantages.

The Dream is 6-1 on the road since the All-Star break and the team owns the league’s best recent net rating, while New York is on zero days of rest.

Dallas has already beaten Phoenix twice this season, and the Mercury remain just 6-14 at home this year.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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