The Washington Mystics ruined the debut of the new-look New York Liberty to start the 2023 WNBA season, but a lot has happened since that May 19 meeting.
New York has gone 8-2 straight up (6-4 against the spread) after that disjointed opening effort, with its star-studded cast quickly coming together.
As for Washington, it’s 8-4 SU (5-7 ATS) on the season but that win over the Liberty is one of the rare victories against a quality team. The Mystics have enjoyed one of the softer starts to the season and Sunday’s matinee in Brooklyn will be their biggest test.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this Eastern Conference clash and give my best WNBA picks for the Mystics vs. Liberty on June 25.
Mystics vs Liberty best odds
Mystics vs Liberty picks and predictions
The Washington Mystics can prove their opening night win over the New York Liberty was real and stake their claim as contenders for the WNBA title with a win in Brooklyn this afternoon.
Washington will need top efforts from its starters to match the Liberty’s star power, including another solid showing from veteran guard Natasha Cloud.
She’s coming off a 16-point performance in the latest win over Chicago, overcoming an illness that had her listed as a game-time decision. Before that she battled through ankle pain, sitting out against Phoenix on June 16 and scoring a combined nine points on 2-for-7 shooting in the other two games (vs. Chicago and at Indiana).
Ahead of that challenging four-game stretch, Cloud was coming off a season-high 19 points against Seattle and averaging 11 points an outing, including 14 points in the season-opening win over the Liberty back on May 19.
Sunday’s player projections call for as many as 13.6 points from the 5-foot-9 guard while my number is a bit more tempered at 12.4. That’s still enough to get Over Cloud’s scoring total of 10.5 points. The Over 10.5 is as expensive as -125 at bet365 but you can get Over 10.5 at +104 at FanDuel books.
This afternoon’s scoring total has been trimmed from Cloud’s recent prop number of 12.5 points — a reflection of that three-game stretch in which she was limited with ankle pain. However, this is the healthiest she's been since that season-high output two Sundays ago.
Player modeling is calling for 32 minutes and 13 field goal attempts from her this afternoon, especially with Washington down key bench bodies in Li Meng and Kristi Toliver. She’s one of the few Mystics that doesn’t shrink on the road (Washington averages only 72.5 ppg as a visitor), averaging 10.5 ppg per away game.
Today’s game total is on the higher end for Washington (162 points vs. sub-160 totals), with New York expected to dictate a quicker pace. Oddsmakers have a high projection for the Mystics’ team total — a game script that lifts the scoring bar for D.C.
If you can’t grab the +104 price on Over 10.5 at FanDuel, shop around for the shortest vig you can find as other books open their prop markets later in the day.
My best bet: Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 points (+104 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Mystics vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
Opening numbers for this matchup differ, with some books starting with New York -6.5 and others hitting the board as high as Liberty -7.5. Some online markets opened at -7 and have since ticked up to -7.5 as of Sunday morning.
In the first meeting of the year, no one knew what New York was bringing to the table after a roster shakeup that included the addition of stars like Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot in the offseason.
That full group didn’t get to play together during the preseason and had limited game reps in exhibition play, and it showed in the season opener. The Liberty shot just 34% from the field and turned the ball over 22 times in an 80-64 loss to the Mystics as 2-point home chalk.
However, it hasn’t taken long for the Liberty to gel as a team. New York’s offense sits second in advanced rating (107.9) and owns a league-best 78% assist-to-FG made rate, which is helping generate almost 88 points per game.
Washington enters the weekend on a three-game winning streak, knocking off a shorthanded Phoenix roster and taking two wins over a sliding Chicago team in a home-and-home set. The Mystics do own claim to the best defensive rating in the land (90.7) but have built that metric against teams ranked in the bottom third of the WNBA in offense — which is also where Washington ranks when it comes to scoring the basketball (95.1 – second-worst offensive rating).
This Over/Under total opened at 161.5 points and jumped to 162.5 at some markets as of Sunday morning.
The Mystics average just Over 76 points per game, with that output slumping to 72.5 points on the road. Washington has shot just 38.5% as a visitor, including a 31% success rate from beyond the arc. It has played Under the closing total in all six of its away games this season, part of a league-best Under record of 1-10-1 O/U.
As for New York, its defense gets overshadowed by the star power on offense, but the team owns a solid 97.2 defensive rating so far in 2023. Much like the Mystics, the Liberty haven’t been tested much with some pop-gun opponents, leading to a 6-5 Over/Under mark heading into the weekend.
The Liberty started the schedule playing a slower tempo as all those new pieces figured out how to fit together, owning a rating of 94.8 in May (second slowest). However, the offense is coming together and revving the engines for a rating of 99.34 in June (second fastest).
Washington’s tempo has remained steady in the first two months of the season, ranked as the fifth slowest pace in the WNBA. The Mystics play a methodical halfcourt set and don’t look to push the ball much, sitting dead last in fastbreak points.
Mystics vs Liberty betting trend to know
The Mystics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Liberty.
Mystics vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, June 25, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Mystics vs Liberty key injuries
Mystics: Li Meng F (Out), Kristi Toliver G (Out).
Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
