Major playoff stakes are on the line tonight as the Washington Mystics look to stamp their postseason ticket and the L.A. Sparks try to crash the party.
At 17-19, the Mystics have a two-game edge on the Sparks with four games to go, but they ended August with an 84-75 loss to the Aces despite 17 points from Elena Delle Donne.
L.A. has picked the worst possible time for a three-game losing run, and a 72-61 loss to the lowly Storm on Thursday dropped the Sparks out of the No. 8 spot. Having been hit hard by injuries all year, the hosts are really limping to the finish line.
Check out our free Mystics vs. Sparks WNBA picks for a closer look at tonight’s matchup.
Mystics vs Sparks best odds
Mystics vs Sparks picks and predictions
With improved health and growing confidence, the Washington Mystics have the look of a tricky first-round playoff opponent, but they still need to clinch their place. A win against the Los Angeles Sparks here would essentially do that, and I see Washington coming into Crypto.com Arena on a mission.
These teams have split their two meetings so far this season — both in early August — and have plenty in common. They hang their hats on their work at the defensive end (both Top 5 in points allowed per game) and they’ve seen their seasons derailed by injuries, but it’s the visitors who are closer to a fully healthy roster heading into this crucial matchup.
The Washington offense feels likelier to get the upper hand, with Natasha Cloud pulling the strings. Della Donne and Brittney Sykes have teamed up impressively in the past few weeks to keep the scoreboard ticking over and that duo combined for 33 points in the loss to the Aces on Friday.
The Sparks had won six in a row before their current three-game skid, but they’ve suffered more injury setbacks since then and haven’t cracked 75 points in any of their last three contests. It’s asking a lot for talented forward Nneka Ogwumike (19 points a game) to keep L.A. afloat.
The Mystics haven’t played their best basketball on the road this year but I’m leaning towards Washington here and backing them to cover this small spread.
My best bet: Mystics -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Mystics vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite having homecourt advantage tonight, the Sparks are 3.5-point underdogs and it’s hard to argue with that given L.A.’s disastrous week. The line surely also reflects the Mystics’ eye-catching showings against the Aces — beating Las Vegas at home last weekend, then holding their own in a loss on Thursday.
Washington has found a good rhythm at both ends of the floor over the past few weeks and the visitors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four outings, but it’s worth noting that the Mystics have had a tougher time on their travels — they’re 5-12 overall on the road this season and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
I expect both teams to be locked in tonight with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance, but that may not translate to a lot of points. The L.A. offense has hit a wall over the past week, with the Sparks scoring fewer than 70 points in two of their last three games. They managed just 29 points in the first half against a Seattle team that’s hardly known as a defensive juggernaut.
Meanwhile, the Under has hit in Washington’s last four games and it’s 6-1 in the Sparks’ past seven contests. With pressure mounting on both teams, it would be no surprise to see a scrappy, low-scoring slugfest tonight.
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Mystics vs Sparks betting trend to know
The Under has been the smart bet when the Sparks are playing at Crypto.com Arena. It’s 13-3 in L.A.’s last 16 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sparks.
Mystics vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, September 3, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WNBA League Pass |
Mystics vs Sparks key injuries
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Questionable).
Sparks: Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out), Lexie Brown G (Out), Nia CLouden G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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