Sun vs Sparks Picks and Predictions: Sun Sets on L.A.'s Season

The Connecticut Sun and Los Angeles Sparks will face off in back-to-back games as the WNBA’s regular season schedule is ready to conclude. 

Just when everyone thought the Sparks were a forgone conclusion to miss the playoffs, they won a must-win matchup against the Washington Mystics. They now must best the Sun, who are coming into this one at 8-3 since the All-Star break, with their only defeats coming against the Chicago Sky (twice) and Las Vegas Aces. 

Let’s see what’s in store for this matchup with August 9’s Sun vs. Sparks picks and predictions.

Sun vs Sparks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Lines opened as low as -5.5 in favor of the Sun. Since then, it’s been hovering around -7.5 and -8.5 on most sportsbooks. The Over/Under opened up at 157.5 and sits between 159.5 and 160 as of writing. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.

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Sun vs Sparks predictions

• Prediction: Sun -7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 158.5 (-110)
• Best bet: N. Ogwumike Under 18.5 points (-115)

Predictions made on 8/9/2022 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Sun vs Sparks info

• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, August 9, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN+, SportsNet Los Angeles

Sun vs Sparks betting preview

Key injuries

Sun: Bria Hartley PG (Out), Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Sparks: Kristi Toliver G (Out), Chiney Ogwumike F (Ques), Rae Burrell F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Sun are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one day’s rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sparks.

Sun vs Sparks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Connecticut is coming off a crushing defeat at the hands of the Sky in a spirited 91-84 battle. With playoff seeding still shuffling and standings not final, expect the Sun to be motivated to continue their hot streak and pounce on the lowly Sparks. The Sun are the better team in most of the critical metrics, boasting a Top 3 offensive and defensive rating, while the Sparks sit a lowly 11th (defense) and ninth (offense).

The Sun move the ball well and allow everyone to get involved with the offense. That style of selfless basketball will be brutal for an undisciplined and lousy Sparks defense to keep up with. 

This is a lopsided matchup in many ways and will show tonight. Just look at what the Sun have been doing lately, scoring 87 or more points in four of their last five games. The Sparks have only cracked 80 points once in their previous five outings. 

The first matchup earlier in the season between these two teams resulted in a 17-point victory for the Sun, with Liz Cambage still on the roster for the Sparks. 

If the Sparks want a chance to make the playoffs, they will need to win their last three games. They did win three in a row earlier in the season but judging by how they've played lately, it doesn't seem all that likely. The Sun have been a force against the bottom-tier teams and sport the WNBA’s best net rating. They’ll look to cruise by the Sparks.  

Prediction: Sun -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The Sparks haven't been a good team on either side of the ball all year, and are entering this tough matchup on the heels of significant travel woes. The Sparks’ flight was delayed twice on Sunday and ultimately canceled and rebooked for Monday morning. The dilemma left the team furious with the league's office as players on the team slept in the airport overnight. 

First time for everything @WNBA pic.twitter.com/w3PSHxCcJk

— Nneka Ogwumike (@nnekaogwumike) August 8, 2022

How does a team that's already a long shot at making the playoffs quickly refocus before playing one of the league's elite teams the next day? 

When betting on the Sparks for the Over/Under, it's always a gamble. On some nights, they can look like an expansion team, and then on nights like Sunday, they can surprise everyone and defeat a good team like the Mystics. 

On most nights, Sparks’ horrid defense allows opponents to score points in bunches and hit the Over. Should we expect more of that in this one? The Sun will be focused to keep winning as the playoffs near, while the Sparks will have this travel dilemma to recover from, with possibly tired legs exacerbating a poor matchup for their struggling defense.  

The Sun will score many points in this one, fueling the Over.

Prediction: Over 158.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best bet

If one player has been consistent for the Sparks all season, it has to be Nneka Ogwumike. She’s a professional who shows up and produces at the highest level, despite the ups and downs of the team around her.

For the season, the 32-year-old is scoring 18.4 points per game on 54%shooting. No doubt, Ogwumike is the focal point of this offense, and nothing gets done without her production. However, in this matchup, the Sunday travel issues that leaked into Monday must be considered. Ogwumike isn't a young player anymore, and having that hurdle between games could show. 

Ogwumike has scored fewer than 18.5 points in the last four games. Teams know she's the one player on the Sparks who can get hot and beat you. I think the Sun game plan for her and limit any potential scoring outburst. 

Pick: Ogwumike Under 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)

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