Best WNBA Player Props Today: Value to Be Found With Storm's Whitcomb

Sky High

The Chicago Sky come to the nation’s capital to take on the Mystics, who are slowly getting healthy with some key members on the mend. This spread opened as low as Washington -3.5 and is climbing to -5, which means we could see Washington get some bodies back.

However, my attention is on Chicago guard Marina Mabrey. She’s averaging 15 points on the season and while she hasn’t met that mark in her last two outings, player projections for the Notre Dame product predict a strong showing Sunday.

WNBA models range from 17.4 points to a ceiling of 18.4 for Mabrey, which looks like a solid bet on the Over considering her opening scoring prop is as low as 14.5 points (Over -125).

While Washington may get some frontcourt staples back, the Mystics are still missing some key guards in Ariel Atkins, Natasha Cloud, and Kristi Toliver. Washington’s once-mighty defensive metrics have slid with those injuries adding up, giving up an average of 54.7 points to rival guards in the past 10 games.

Mabrey is logging major minutes for the Sky and seeing her offensive role increase. She’s attempting 14.4 shots and scoring 18.8 points over her last five games, getting 30 minutes of floor time in those outings. That’s a notable uptick from her rate of 14.1 points on 12.3 FGAs in the first 26 games of the season.

If her production keeps pace and those Sunday projections hold up, even tempered to my number of 16.63 points, that Over 14.5 points should be priced more in the -150 range.

Marina Mabrey Total Points: Over 14.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Whammy With Sami

Books are still dealing Sami Whitcomb’s scoring props too low. The Storm’s veteran guard has seen a major increase in minutes as well as shot attempts and is being leaned on to score even more with fellow guard Gabby Williams out for the next month.

Whitcomb’s points prop for Sunday sits at 9.5 (Over -125) despite producing double figures in six of the past eight outings. This prop has spiked to 10.5 points at some operators as of Sunday afternoon.

Her minutes have jumped to almost 30 per game, her average field goal attempts have soared to 8.8 (with the bulk of those coming from beyond the arc), and her scoring average is at 10.8 points in that span.

She finished with 11 points in the win over Atlanta on Thursday despite shooting just 2-for-7 from the field, picking up 6 of 8 shots from the foul line.

Even before being promoted to the starting five, Whitcomb had success against Phoenix. She went for 18 points against the Mercury in May, 14 points in June, and 14 points when these clubs clashed on August 5. Whitcomb finished that most recent matchup 4-for-8 from the floor with all four makes coming from 3-point range.

Player projections have a ceiling of almost 17 points for Whitcomb tonight, which is a little optimistic. That said, the Mercury are one of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA, especially on the road where they allow a league-high 88.1 points to host teams.

Sami Whitcomb Total Points: Over 9.5 (-125 at bet365)

Rebounds for Rhyne

Given the pace of the Dream and Aces, there should be plenty of FG attempts in Sin City tonight. That means more chances for rebounds as well.

Atlanta forward Rhyne Howard hauled down six boards in her last run-in with Las Vegas on August 1 and has recorded five or more rebounds in five of her last seven outings.

Atlanta and Las Vegas rank among the quickest tempos in the WNBA, which means more shots. The Aces allow a league-high 72 FGA while the Dream sit fourth at 69.3 FGA. And with Vegas and Atlanta sitting No. 2 and No. 3 in opponent field goal percentage, we will have a surplus of wayward shots Sunday night.

Howard also snatched five rebounds in the first meeting with Las Vegas back in June with those teams launching up 144 combined shots, which produced 67 total rebounds. Many of Howard’s Atlanta teammates are seeing their rebounding totals juiced to the Over, but her O/U is holding good value at -115 aside while some books are dealing Over 4.5 -120.

WNBA player projections call for just north of five rebounds for the 6-foot-2 forward tonight, versus a rebounding player prop of 4.5 (Over -115).

Rhyne Howard Total Rebounds: Over 4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)