The Las Vegas Aces head into the final day of the regular season needing a win over the Phoenix Mercury to clinch the No. 1 seed — and as the latest WNBA odds suggest, anything other than a victory would be a huge shock.
In almost any other season, Las Vegas would have wrapped up the top spot weeks ago, but the New York Liberty have pushed this race to the wire. Still, the Aces saw off the Mercury on the road on Friday with 30 points from A’Ja Wilson to keep their destiny in their own hands.
Phoenix is guaranteed to have the WNBA’s worst record this year and brings a 10-game losing run into this season finale. The Mercury were blown away from the second quarter onwards on Friday despite a triple-double — Phoenix’s first ever — from guard Sug Sutton.
Read on for our free WNBA betting picks for Mercury vs. Aces on September 10.
Mercury vs Aces best odds
Mercury vs Aces picks and predictions
For Las Vegas, the dream scenario tonight is surely to build an early lead and cruise to victory without overextending any of its starters.
Head coach Becky Hammon won’t have a chance to rest the likes of Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray here ahead of the playoffs (starting on Wednesday), but I see the Las Vegas Aces giving their backups as many opportunities as possible in this one.
That opens the door for the Under, with the hosts just needing to do enough to get the W against a Phoenix Mercury team that hasn’t won since August 10.
I expect the Las Vegas offense to fall a little short of its league-leading mark of 92.6 points a game, with Alysha Clark, Sydney Colson, and Cayla George soaking up more minutes off the bench. Plum played 37 minutes on Friday but it would be a major surprise to see her given a similar workload here.
Even if the Aces come out firing, there’s little reason to think that the Mercury will put up big numbers. Phoenix hasn’t reached the 80-point mark in any of its past 10 contests and was held to 73 points and 35% shooting in that prior contest at Footprint Center.
With the prospect of both second units seeing big minutes, I’m predicting a lower-scoring battle and grabbing the Under.
My best bet: Under 165.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)
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Mercury vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
The Aces can’t afford a last-day slip-up to cost them homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, and they’re the heaviest of favorites to get the job done tonight. Las Vegas has won three in a row and is 18-1 at home.
To put it bluntly, Phoenix has been a disaster on the road this season, with an embarrassing 1-18 record. The Mercury couldn’t cover an 18-point spread at home on Friday and their best chance of covering a slightly larger spread tonight is if the Aces dish out lots of bench minutes.
The visitors’ mark of 14-25-0 ATS this season is another reason to lean towards a comfortable home victory, and the hosts have won the past eight meetings between these teams.
I foresee one-way traffic at T-Mobile Arena — and that could put a dent in the chances of this game hitting the Over. Hammon has every incentive to empty her bench if this turns into a blowout, and the Las Vegas second unit has been inconsistent for most of the year.
While the Over was just barely a winning ticket on Friday, I’ve already made the case for the Under in this matchup, particularly with the Mercury likely to be without Diana Taurasi and a few of their other backcourt options. It’s asking a lot for Brittney Griner, Michaela Onyenwere, and Sutton to keep pace with the hosts.
The hard work lies ahead for the Aces and there’s no reason to take any risks here on the eve of the postseason, as long as the win is safe. It feels like we could be in for some extended garbage time tonight.
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Mercury vs Aces betting trend to know
The Aces haven’t served up high-scoring games on their home floor lately. The Under is 5-1 in Las Vegas’ last six home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.
Mercury vs Aces game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, September 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Mercury vs Aces key injuries
Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Questionable), Christyn Williams G (Questionable), Sophie Cunningham G (Questionable), Shey Peddy G (Out), Skylar Diggins-Smith G (Out).
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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