New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Improving Ionescu Leads the Way for Liberty

Before the start of the WNBA season, the revamped roster of the New York Liberty was expected to be the biggest beast in the East. But with July just around the corner, there are two colossal clubs in the conference, and we get a monster matchup of kaiju proportions when the Liberty visit the Connecticut Sun tonight.

These apex squads butted heads back in late May, with New York rolling Connecticut 81-65 in Brooklyn. Now the series swings to Mohegan Sun Arena, where the Sun are set as rare home underdogs.

Tonight’s main event will undoubtedly shake up the WNBA odds, from the championship futures to the WNBA MVP odds race, which sees New York’s Breanna Stewart and Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas atop the odds board.

I dive into the point spread and Over/Under total for this important Eastern encounter and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty at Sun on June 27.

Liberty vs Sun best odds

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Liberty vs Sun picks and predictions

We knew there would be growing pains for the new-look Liberty this season. When it comes to star Sabrina Ionescu, those pains have lasted almost a month.

Ionescu has struggled to find her place in the offense with so many new pieces and dealt with a nagging hamstring this month, which really hurt her contributions on the scoresheet. However, after a couple of games off, the sharp-shooting guard is healthy and playing more like herself.

She had 31 points in the overtime win against Washington over the weekend. She shot 9-for-19 with seven of those makes coming from beyond the arc, helping New York climb out of a 17-point hole. Even before resting the tender hammy for two games, Ionescu was showing flashes of the dangerous scorer she was as the Liberty’s lone star the past two seasons.

The Oregon product dropped a season-high 37 points on Atlanta on June 9, and scored 22 points versus Dallas on June 11 before sitting out matchups with Atlanta and Phoenix. She came back for a quiet 8-point effort in 26 limited minutes against the Dream on June 23 before shining in Sunday’s thriller versus the Mystics.

Ionescu’s aggressiveness on offense has been the biggest factor. Not only is she shooting more — averaging more than 15 field goal attempts per game — but she’s shooting well, hitting close to 46% of those attempts, including a 50% clip from distance.

On top of that, Ionescu is attacking opponents and drawing contact, picking up plenty of points at the foul line, which is something that was lacking earlier this year. She’s 23 of 26 from the stripe in her last four appearances, which is a massive uptick compared to making seven of just nine foul shots over the first six games of 2023.

Player projections for Tuesday’s tilt with Connecticut are calling for close to 19 points for Ionescu, who scored 17 in the first matchup with the Sun last month. That stacks up well for the Over with her scoring prop priced as low as 17.5 (Over -114) while some markets are dealing 18.5 (Over -115).

My best bet: Sabrina Ionescu Over 17.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The opener for this highly-anticipated game hit the board at New York -4 at offshore operators yesterday afternoon. Those lines swelled overnight, and other markets followed suit with their opening numbers, installing the Liberty as 5.5-point road chalk. As of Tuesday morning, New York is laying between -4.5 and -5.5.

My WNBA power rating produced an unadjusted spread of Connecticut -1.5, but with the Sun without the services of standout forward Brianna Jones for the remainder of the season (out the past two games with a ruptured Achilles), that projection swings the spread to the Liberty, but not as far as this current number.

Connecticut has a deep roster with quality reserves picking up minutes. Jones sits high on league’s WARP (wins above replacement player) and PIE (player impact estimates) ratings, but the Sun’s surplus of talent can help cushion that blow. I have New York as a 2.5-point favorite on the road tonight, so I am leaning toward the Sun given the current spread.

Jones definitely would have been handy against this New York frontcourt, which features MVP frontrunner Breanna Stewart (-130). Stewart is averaging 22.5 points per game and posted a stat line of 21 points, six rebounds and five assists against Connecticut back on May 27.

Behind her in the MVP race is do-it-all forward Alyssa Thomas, who leads the Sun in assists (7.9) and rebounding (10.5) while posting 14.8 points per game. Thomas, who is +500 to win Most Valuable Player, has recorded two triple-doubles in the last three games.

These Eastern powerhouses stack up fairly even, as both rank Top 5 in offensive and defensive rating this month and own nearly twin net ratings of 10.7 (Sun) and 10.3 (Liberty) so far in June. The Liberty covered as 6.5-point home chalk in their first matchup of the season.

Tonight’s total opened at 166 points and has since moved to as high as 167. These teams have leaned to the Over more often to start the schedule, with New York going 7-5 Over/Under and Connecticut sitting at 9-6 O/U, including a 5-2 O/U count at home.

New York and Connecticut also play a similar tempo with the ball, with the Liberty owning a pace rating of 98.51 (third fastest) and the Sun right behind them at 97.78.

Their May 27 meeting in Brooklyn closed with a Over/Under number of 164.5 points, but with the Sun struggling from the field (shot just 35%) and scoring a combined total of only 42 points in the final three quarters, the 81-65 final fell well below oddsmakers’ expectations.

That game finished with a very methodical pace rating of 88.8, but it was an early-season matchup in which these teams were still finding their flows — especially New York with such a overhaul of new faces on the floor. 

Liberty vs Sun betting trend to know

The Connecticut Sun are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.

Liberty vs Sun game info

Liberty vs Sun key injuries

Liberty: S. Dolson C (Out).
Sun: T. Hayes G (Ques), B. Jones F (Out).

Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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