The Las Vegas Aces protected homecourt advantage with a 13-point win over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals on Sunday. Down 2-0, the Mercury will desperately search for a win in front of their raucous home crowd.
My Aces vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks expect a bounce-back showing from veteran floor general Alyssa Thomas and a win for Phoenix on Wednesday, October 8.
Aces vs Mercury predictions
My Aces vs Mercury best bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points (-130 at bet365)
Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas is renowned for her playmaking and rebounding, but she’s certainly no slouch as a scorer. She averaged 15.4 points per game in the regular season, tied for the second-highest scoring average of her 12-year WNBA career.
Thomas scored 14 points in the first game of the first-round series against the New York Liberty, but tallied at least 15 in each of the next seven contests before finishing with 10 in Game 2 vs. the Las Vegas Aces.
The 10 points and nine field-goal attempts represented her lowest mark of the 2025 postseason in both categories, and she failed to get to the charity stripe for just the second time in the playoffs.
The veteran has averaged 17.2 points per game in the playoffs, including 19.5 at home and 15.4 on the road. During the regular season, she averaged 16.3 at home compared to 15.2 on the road. In 48 total games this season, she's finished with 15+ points 26 times, including 14 of 23 home contests.
AT has averaged exactly 14.5 points across six matchups with the Aces this season, and she’s hit the Over on this line four times, including both at home. With the fate of the series hanging in the balance, I expect her to be aggressive at getting her own shot in a must-win Game 3.
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points
Chelsea Gray Over 20.5 points+rebounds+assists
Mercury moneyline
Chelsea Gray has been masterful throughout the Aces’ playoff run, averaging 22.5 points + rebounds + assists after averaging 20.6 in the regular season. She’s racked up at least 21 PRA in five straight and seven of nine in the 2025 postseason.
In six total matchups with Phoenix, Gray has averaged 25.3 PRA and hit the Over four times. She’s been elite as a playmaker, with 10 assists in two straight games, and she’s been effective as a scorer and rebounder as well. Expect her to continue racking up counting stats.
It’s do-or-die time for Phoenix, and I don’t expect the Mercury to fall into a surely insurmountable 0-3 hole. The Mercury are 18-8 straight up at home compared to just 14-13 on the road this season.
Las Vegas has won its last four games at Phoenix dating back to last season, but the Mercury can’t afford to drop this one. After letting Game 1 slip through its hands and surrendering a historic 21 points to Jackie Young in the decisive third quarter of Game 2, Phoenix will play with a renewed sense of urgency and defensive intensity.
This is the first time the WNBA Finals are a best-of-seven series, and there’s still a lot of basketball left to be played. A win on Wednesday will get the Mercury right back in the series, and the team knows it.
Aces vs Mercury odds
Aces vs Mercury live odds
Aces vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +4 (-110) | Phoenix -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +140 | Phoenix -165
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
Aces vs Mercury trend
The Mercury are 18-8 straight up at home this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, October 8, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: None.
Mercury: Satou Sabally F (day-to-day).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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