The Phoenix Mercury have won five straight, and they’ll look to extend that streak when they travel to the nation’s capital to face the reeling Washington Mystics.
My WNBA picks and Mercury vs. Mystics predictions expect another strong performance from Alyssa Thomas as the Mercury earn another victory in a low-scoring affair.
Mercury vs Mystics predictions
My Mercury vs Mystics best bet: Under 158.5 (-108 at bet365)
Neither team has lit the world on fire offensively, and I’m not expecting a lot of scoring when the Phoenix Mercury and Washington Mystics clash tonight.
On the season, the Mercury are 16-22-2 to the Under, while the Mystics are 19-21-1. Phoenix ranks sixth in scoring at 83.1 points per game, and Washington ranks 11th at 77.9.
Over the last 10 games, scoring is down for both squads. In that span, the Mercury have posted 81.4 points, while the Mystics have posted a league-worst 75.7. Phoenix has gone Under in six straight games heading into Thursday’s showdown.
The Mystics have gotten tremendous play from rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, but the departure of Brittney Sykes left an already vaunted Mystics offense even more beleaguered.
Phoenix is a bit better in terms of scoring options, but the Mercury have relied far more on their defensive prowess than their offensive acumen.
Phoenix ranks third in defensive rating this season at 96.6, but over the last 12 games, they’re second at 94. The Mercury’s stellar defense should be able to contain the Mystics' struggling offense, making for a low-scoring contest.
Mercury vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 158.5
Mercury -9.5
Alyssa Thomas Over 32.5 points + rebounds + assists
The Mercury have won and covered in both head-to-head matchups with the Mystics this season. Dating back to last season, they’re 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS.
Overall, Phoenix has won five straight and covered in three. Washington has lost seven in a row with a 2-5 ATS record.
The Mercury are the superior team, and I expect defense to prevail over offense tonight, leading to a convincing Mercury road victory.
Alyssa Thomas has averaged 33.5 PRA at home and 34.8 on the road this season. Over her last 10, she’s averaged 35.1 and hit the Over on this line six times. Over her last nine road games, she’s posted at least 33 PRA six times.
Facing a reeling Mystics squad, I expect another strong performance from the do-it-all forward.
Mercury vs Mystics odds
Mercury vs Mystics live odds
Mercury vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -9.5 (-105) | Washington +9.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Phoenix -450 | Washington +350
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 (-110) | Under 158.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Mystics trend
Phoenix has won and covered in two straight games against the Mystics. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Mystics.
How to watch Mercury vs Mystics
| Location | CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Thursday, September 4, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon |
Mercury vs Mystics latest injuries
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Mystics: Jacy Sheldon (ankle) and Georgia Amoore (ACL) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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